We went out on a limb in Week 4 with two of our picks and both of those took a resounding thud for us, but we were right on three of the five, including believing that Kentucky would upset Mississippi State and that is what they did.
We also told you to take the points with Texas A&M against Alabama and Arizona State against Washington and both of those predictions came true. We just got a little haughty predicting Florida Atlantic would defeat Central Florida and Wake Forest would upset Notre Dame.
Despite taking it on the nose in those two games, we stand undeterred. We believe that there are great upsets out there and here are five that you should pay close attention to for this week.
Florida vs. Mississippi State (-7)
Both of these team enter this game at 3-1. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 23 in the nation but are reeling after falling to Kentucky last week. This team, which was averaging 50 points per game through their first three victories, mustered just seven points and they could face some real challenges against a Gators defense who has not allowed more than 21 points in a game and is allowing 13 points per contest.
Meanwhile, the Florida offense is starting to come alive behind a running game that has two backs that could reach over 800 yards on the ground this season. This is the kind of tandem that can wear down this Bulldogs defense and control this contest. The Gators have not performed well in this series, going 0-3-1 ATS the spread in the last four meetings. That will not be the case on Saturday.
Our Pick: Take Florida to Win.
Temple at Boston College (-14.0)
Boston College won their first three games of the season, before falling to Purdue last week, 30-13. While the Eagles offense has some punch, this defense is suspect, to say the least. They have given up better than 30 points in each of the last two weeks and the offense for Temple is no joke.
In fact, the Owls have won their last two games, scoring 35 against Maryland and 31 against Tulsa. They have an impressive running back in Ryquell Armstead, who has 364 yards rushing this season. Temple may not win this game, but they lose by no more than seven.
Our Pick: Take Temple and the Points.
BYU at Washington (-17.5)
Washington enters this contest as a possible final four team in college football and the oddsmakers believe that they will whip the Cougars this week, but they thought that about BYU against Wisconsin two weeks ago and the Cougars pulled off a stunning 24-21 upset.
Washington opened the season with a tough loss to Auburn, but they have won their last three, albeit not decisively, defeating Utah two weeks ago by 14 and Arizona State by seven last week. This is a good Huskies football team, but they are a bit overrated. Jake Browning is a future NFL QB, but he has thrown four interceptions and the Cougars have the kind of defense to cause him to make mistakes. BYU could very easily win this game, but at least take them to beat the spread.
Our Pick: Take BYU and the Points.
Iowa State at TCU (-10.5)
This line started at 12.5 and will likely be no more than eight or nine by week’s end. That is why it pays to get on this one right off. There are a number of reasons to like the Cyclones and it starts with the fact that they have looked pretty good, despite being 1-2. They lost to Oklahoma, the No. 6 team in the nation, by just 10 and fell to Iowa by 10. They won last week, 26-13 over Akron. This is a team playing good defense and they have a big play connection in quarterback Zeb Noland and WR Hakeem Butler.
Meanwhile, TCU started out looking like a real competitor after combining to win their first two games 97-19, but they have been exposed by Ohio State and Texas, losing 40-28 and 31-16. Shane Robinson has thrown for 841 yards and 6 touchdowns, but he has also thrown 5 interceptions. Mistakes will likely be a key in this game, and that favors the Cyclones defense.
Our Pick: Take Iowa State to Win.
Baylor at Oklahoma (-23.5)
This could be the upset special of the week. Oklahoma struggled against Army last week and nearly fell to a team that they should have rolled over. Were they looking ahead to Baylor? Not likely. This is just a team that is not as impressive as one would think.
The Bears have an impressive young quarterback in Sophomore Charlie Brewer, who has thrown for 862 yards and 6 touchdowns this season. Most importantly, he has just one interception and is very smart with the ball.
The Sooners have earned solid victories in their last two contests, but not in dominating fashion. They defeated Iowa State by 10 and Army by seven, so this is not a team blowing teams out. More importantly, the Sooners take on Texas next week, and may already be looking ahead, setting up the perfect trap game. Oklahoma is not going to cover the spread and they could very well lose this game.
Our Pick: Take Baylor and the Points.