It was the second tough weekend in a row, as all five of our predictions wound up losing. Only Navy would have been a winner as they lost by only 22 to Notre Dame when they were expected to lose by 24. Otherwise, our picks were not even close to winning.
This week we pull out five other contests looking to turn the tide. This has even caused us to look outside the top 25 as we begin with a great matchup between Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan where we expect the Chippewas to come up with a huge upset.
Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan (-13.5)
This should be a great mid-American Conference classic despite the fact that Central Michigan enters 1-8 while Eastern Michigan is at 4-5. Last year was an exciting contest that Central Michigan won 42-30 at home. They lost their most recent contest by seven while Eastern Michigan lost by 15 to Army.
Central Michigan has the best defense in the MAC, and are third in the country against the pass. Their offense has struggled in each of their last two losses, scoring 10 points in each, but they have lost by more than 10 points just one time in their last four games. Eastern Michigan has been averaging 250 yards passing per game, but this feeds right into the Central Michigan defense. That’s why we look for the big upset here.
Our Pick: Take Central Michigan to win
Oklahoma State (-7.5) vs. Baylor
Oklahoma State is a bit of an enigma this season. They pulled off a huge victory over Texas last weekend, winning by three but lost to Kansas State and Iowa State in the previous two weeks. It seems that they are motivated for the big games but not as much for those contests that are ones they should win. That’s good news for Baylor.
The Bears have a little bit of a challenge at the quarterback position and have looked bad in the last two weeks. However, this is a team playing better than their record would show. It has really been a question of a lack of ability to protect their quarterback. Corey Brewer has played well this season, averaging 227.5 yards per game and has 10 touchdown passes for Baylor. Look for this to be a high-scoring affair, as Baylor pulls out the victory.
Our Pick: Take Baylor to win.
No. 4 Notre Dame (-9.5) vs. Northwestern
Notre Dame has remained undefeated but has had some contests where they have pulled out games that should have been blowouts, including against Pittsburgh a few weeks back. They dominated Navy early before pulling out a 22 point victory last Saturday, and now take on a Northwestern team who has won four straight games. That includes victories over Wisconsin and Michigan State.
Northwestern is 5-0 ATS in their last five games in November and they are 4-0 in their last four games as the underdog against the spread. What Northwestern does is grind the ball out using their short passing attack, which should become frustrating for Notre Dame.
Our Pick: Take Northwestern to Win.
BYU vs. Boise State (-13.0)
After a loss to San Diego State in early October, Boise State has battled back to win their last three games and has scored a combined total of 135 points. However, they have also given up a total of 93 points in that same span.
BYU suffered an ugly loss last week against Northern Illinois, losing 7-6, but it is likely they were looking ahead to this matchup against Boise State. That should be a big advantage for the Cougars, as Boise State has suffered a number of injuries to their defense, including losing their starting middle linebacker, safety, and big-play defensive tackle.
There are a few numbers we really like. It starts with the fact that BYU is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams and that they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road. Meanwhile, Boise State is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games at home. Look for BYU to pull off the upset.
Our Pick: Take BYU
Temple vs. No. 12 UCF (-10.5)
This would normally be a game that you would expect Central Florida to dominate, but quarterback McKenzie Milton is struggling with an injury and may not be playing in this game. A month ago that may not have been a big deal, but Temple has been playing exceptional defense, the top in the conference since October 1.
Temple has a solid running game behind Ryquell Armstead, who has 626 yards rushing this season and is averaging 104.3 yards per game. Temple has already beaten one ranked team this season when they beat Cincinnati, plus they have beaten both Boston College and Maryland. With the quarterback situation for UCF in question, Temple is prime to pull off a big upset.
Our Pick: UCF Falls to Temple