Games for Wednesday, March 11th
The Hockey Gods taketh. And the Hockey Gods giveth.
After one of the worst weeks ever where we started the month over 10-units in the hole, things have taken a significant turn since Sunday. Back-to-back 2-0 days turned into an 8-0 run after last night’s 4-game sweep. We’ve quickly escaped the black hole which was sucking us in. Our season total is now back up to +23.44 units of profit.
Tuukka Rask celebrated his 33rd birthday with 36 saves in a 2-0 shutout over the red-hot Philadelphia Flyers. The Boston win was our biggest sweat of the night after Nashville and the Rangers each built comfortable 4-0 leads in their respective games, before going on to 4-2 victories.
In Anaheim, the Ducks cashed in with four goals on their first six shots to cruise to a 5-2 win. The home side were badly outplayed in this one, but we’ll always take the good side of the bounce.
Wednesday’s mid-week board has five games, including St. Louis at Anaheim which is the make-up game from February 11. That game was postponed due to the Jay Bouwmeester medical incident. The game will restart to a full 60 minutes but will keep the 1-1 score from before. This is why you aren’t seeing a Total posted for this game by oddsmakers.
We have a pair of edges to bet tonight, with a cheap price on the home Edmonton side who will have Connor McDavid back in the lineup. San Jose lost number one center Logan Couture for a few games, which will make offense even harder to come by for the Sharks. Aaron Dell is between the pipes for this one though, so hopefully SJ can sneak out a 2-1 win.
A couple of goaltenders are still to be confirmed, along with the injury situation for Anaheim, so stay tuned to the Google sheet for the rest of your game day player status updates.
Enjoy your Wednesday.
Oh, and find me on the Twitter, @kreatture. That’s where you’ll find any additional bets added throughout the day.
– END OF MAR 11 REPORT –
For those new to my space here, let me tell you briefly about what you’ll find each and every day of the season.
There’s two pieces of info most important to hockey bettors when they’re creating their own lines and the first is the starting goaltender. While there’s more and more teams every year now sending out a capable backup, the difference in player value from a team’s number one go-to starter and their number two still plays one of the biggest roles in seeing the gameday odds drastically shift. Knowing in advance which goalie is expected to start can provide a huge edge over the market before it’s publicly known. One of my strengths is projecting each team’s starter with high accuracy. Last season, I began tracking my projections in January against those from the two most recognized sites, Left Wing Lock and Daily Faceoff (in hindsight, I wish I had tracked the full season but honestly, the idea didn’t come to me until January).
This season, I’ll be tracking from day one against the two sites above while adding FantasyLabs and Rotowire, two other sites who offer projected starters (if there’s any other sites you guys use, let me know and I may add them, as well). This tracking will be done publicly and can be viewed in a Google Sheet I’ve created for this season (link above).
The second most important piece of info for serious hockey bettors is the injury list. Again, knowing whether a key player is going to be in or out of the lineup can cause a significant swing in the odds for that game. Having that info before it becomes public knowledge is a huge advantage and while info isn’t easily gathered here, digging into the dirt is another strength of mine and you will usually find the most reliable injury info right here.
A new feature I’ve added this season is a real-time Google Sheet which will be updated during morning skates with up-to-the minute player statuses for game day. This sheet will also update confirmed starting goaltenders throughout the day (and is the same sheet with the tracking for goaltender projections above).
The chart below is why most of you will come here everyday as that’s where all the magic happens (it’s where you’ll find the recommended bets!). Those who were onboard last season will notice a few changes and for those new (and everyone, really), there’s a handy blurb on how to read each column below said chart. I’ll dive into that more in-depth as we go along but for now, it should suffice.
Other than the bets themselves, an extremely valuable column in that chart is the Projected Line Movement. It will basically tell you which direction the line should move and help you decide the time of day you should bet the team you like.
Outside of the goaltender/injury projections, my biggest strength is arguably my ability to read the NHL market. Knowing where the line should be, which direction it should move, and finding the optimal time to enter the market. It’s important. Let me say that again. It’s important. Picking winners obviously dictates the success of your bankroll but knowing how to read the market and beating the market will ultimately set you up for that bankroll success.
Some of you will be disappointed to find out there’s no guaranteed winners here. No MAX bombs or play of the day… or month… or year. No flashiness. And no bullshit. It’s impossible to win all of the time, no matter what anyone else might claim (as they try to sell you their shady subscription service which doesn’t track ROI, CLV or provide detailed tracking of all their plays).
Being a real sports bettor is hard work. Everyone wants to quit their real job and be a sports bettor but it’s honestly the hardest thing I’ve ever had to work at in my life – but also the most rewarding. I do this because I absolutely love it and that will come across in my work.
I just want to say thank you to all the readers who have supported this space over the past two years and to all the new ones who are here for the first time. Feel free to drop by anytime with either a comment below or a comment on my Twitter. My DMs are always open. And there’s no dumb questions (especially if you’ll new to this). I’ll always do my best to get back to you before too long.
Lastly, a huge thank you to Adam Burke and the other head honchos here at BangtheBook, for giving me this platform with free reign to produce the type of content I want. Honestly, you won’t find anything like what I’m doing anywhere else, so keep it tuned to BTB right here and also be sure to check out the many other talented writers we have on staff.