EPL Pick of the Day Round 35 – Manchester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur 4/20/19


The Citizens need three points in order to climb up the top of the Premier League, while Spurs are battling for the top four places. The game between Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur will take place at Etihad Stadium on April 20th, 2019.

Manchester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur

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Three-Way: 1: Man City -357; X: +550 Draw; 2: Tottenham +1000 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -1.5: Man City -133; Tottenham +104

Total 3.5 goals: Over +110; Under -139


Manchester City faces Tottenham for the third time this month following their 4-3 thriller midweek that saw the fastest four goals in Champions League history after four were netted within the opening 11 minutes. However, with title-chasing City now ousted from the tournament on the away goals rule, all efforts will be concentrated on continuing their seven-game winning Premier League home run.

Four of those seven home victories were to nil, with six featuring at least two City goals. In fact, the Citizens have averaged a league-high 3.24 goals per home match this term, winning all their top-flight games here bar one (W16, L1) – in 12 of those victories, City was leading by half-time.

Pep Guardiola is happy to have almost all of the players at his disposal as only Claudio Bravo is out with an Achilles tendon injury, while Oleksandr Zinchenko is listed as questionable due to a thigh injury.

Betting Trends:

  • Raheem Sterling has netted a brace in his last two competitive appearances for City – he has 17 PL goals this term
  • City is yet to concede a goal after the 75th minute in any PL home match this term
  • Thirteen of City’s 16 PL home wins have arrived by a margin or two or more goals


Despite their CL exploits, Tottenham lost their last four PL away matches, three by a 2-1 scoreline. However, they are the PL’s highest away scorers, averaging 1.94 goals per road trip, and are yet to see a draw on the road this league campaign (W11, L6).

Although away from home Spurs have been winning at half-time on ten occasions this PL season (HT: W10, D5, L2), they have also been guilty of switching off in the final stages of matches, conceding 42.86% of their away league goals after the 75th minute.

Mauricio Pochettino has more injury-related concerns for this tilt as he cannot count on Harry Kane (ankle), Moussa Sissoko (groin), Serge Aurier (thigh), and Vincent Janssen (ankle), while Eric Dier (hip), Erik Lamela (thigh), and Harry Winks (groin) are doubtful to face City on Saturday.

Betting Trends:

  • Heung-Min Son netted a three-minute brace against City midweek, after scoring against them in the H2H prior
  • Tottenham scored in each of their last eight games in all competitions

Manchester City won five out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D1, L4) including four of the last five, while the Citizens were victorious in the past two meetings at Etihad Stadium. They beat Spurs 1-0 in reverse fixture this season and are huge favorites to get three points here but the pressure is mounting on them and I think the Champions League elimination left a big emotional void on the layers. Hence, I don’t think they will destroy Tottenham who still has a lot to fight for in the PL and that’s why I am backing the visitors to cover the +1.5 spread.

MY PICK: AH +1.5 Tottenham Hotspur (+104)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Four of the last six H2H duels produced at least three goals but after a seven-goal thriller on Wednesday, I don’t think we will see another goal-glut affair here. The bookies are expecting a bunch of goals, though, but I am going with under 3.5.

MY PICK: Under 3.5 (-139)