EPL Pick of the Day Round 24 – Liverpool vs. Leicester City (1/30/19)

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League leaders welcome the Foxes, looking to keep some distance on second-placed Manchester City by extending their fantastic Premier League home form this season (W10, D1). The game between Liverpool and Leicester City will take place at the Anfield on January 30th, 2019.

Liverpool vs. Leicester City

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Three-Way: 1: Liverpool -400; X: +550 Draw; 2: Leicester +1400 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -1.5: Liverpool -143; Leicester +110

Total 3 goals: Over -116; Under -104

LIVERPOOL

In all competitions, it’s nine straight wins for Liverpool in front of their own fans. Impressively, the team has kept five clean sheets over this period, all the while scoring three goals or more in six of those nine. Overall, Liverpool won 11 of their last 12 matches in the league (W11, L1), and have won all of their 16 fixtures against teams outside the current top six. In their last eight PL matches, Liverpool scored two-thirds of their goals during the second half.

After suffering a couple of consecutive defeats to Manchester City and Wolves, the Reds bounced back with a pair of league victories over Brighton and Crystal Palace. The thrilling duel with the Eagles produced even seven goals but just one in the opening half as Andros Townsend gave Palace a 1-0 lead in the 4th minute.

However, Liverpool scored two quick goals through Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino who found the net in the space of seven minutes but James Tomkins equalized in the 65th with a header from the corner. The Reds switched to a higher gear and bagged two more goals through Salah and Sadio Mane, and although James Milner received his second yellow card in the 89th minute and Palace cut the deficit to one in the dying moments of the tilt, Liverpool secured a 4-3 victory in the end.

Jurgen Klopp will be without Joe Gomez (broken ankle), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee), Trent Alexander-Arnold (knee), and James Milner (suspension), while Gini Wijnaldum (knee) and Dirk van Dijk (illness) are questionable to face the Foxes on Wednesday.

Betting Trends:

  • Mohamed Salah tops the EPL scoring charts with 16 goals – nine were netted in his last eight matches!
  • Liverpool hasn’t lost to Leicester at Anfield in seven matches (W6, D1) – four of those H2Hs saw both teams score

LEICESTER CITY

With two defeats in a row, Leicester’s top half position is under threat. So far they’ve been stronger on the road than at home (17 points vs 14), and like to keep it tight when traveling: six of their last seven EPL away games (W3, D2, L2) featured under 2.5 goals.

All three Leicester wins in that run were 1-0 victories. In fact, Leicester scored precisely one goal in over half (58%) of their PL away matches. They won’t be winning any fair play awards for their efforts though, with no team currently ‘matching’ Leicester’s tally of four PL red cards this season!

The Foxes are in a bad run of four defeats in the previous five games including the latest one to Wolves on the road, which ended similarly as Liverpool’s tilt with Crystal Palace. Leicester trailed 2-0 at halftime as Wolves scored two through Diogo Jota and Ryan Bennett in the first 12 minutes but the Foxes equalized in the space of just four minutes thanks to Demarai Gray’s goal and Connor Coady’s own goal. Jota restored Wolves’ lead in the 64th minute before Wes Morgan tied the game with six minutes to go but Jota completed the hat-trick in the final moments of the clash to set the final score, 4-3.

Claude Puel cannot count on Daniel Amartey who is struggling with an ankle injury but the rest of the squad is healthy and ready to travel to the Anfield on Wednesday.

Betting Trends:

  • Jamie Vardy has scored in two of Leicester’s last three EPL away outings
  • Leicester has been ahead at half-time in just three of their 23 EPL matches – the division’s joint-second lowest tally
  • Leicester conceded first in eight of their last ten competitive games

Liverpool won seven out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D1, L2) including the last three, while the Reds were victorious at Anfield in six out of the past seven meetings.  The Foxes are not playing well at the moment and even though Liverpool will have some defensive problems, especially if Van Dijk is unable to perform due to his illness, I don’t think the visitors will get a positive result here. Liverpool’s front three has the ability to score multiple goals, particularly when they’re playing in front of their own fans, and I am backing the hosts to cover the -1.5 spread in this one and get another three points.

MY PICK: AH -1.5 Liverpool (-143)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Liverpool failed to keep their net intact in four of the last five games, which is unusual considering the entire campaign and their excellent defensive record, but the injuries are the biggest reason for that. That’s why I am backing Leicester to find the net here and I am going with BTTS and over 2.5 goals at excellent +137 odds.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (+137)

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