EPL Match of the Day Round 4 – Leicester City vs. Liverpool (9/1/18)

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The English Premier League leaders Liverpool travel to the King Power Stadium looking to maintain their winning start to the season. In their way is a home side in good form, having responded well to an opening weekend defeat with two straight victories. The game between Leicester and Liverpool will take place at the King Power Stadium on September 1st, 2018.

Leicester City vs. Liverpool

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Three-Way: 1: Leicester +600; X: +375 Draw; 2: Liverpool -250 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +1.5: Leicester -143; Liverpool -120

Total 2.5 goals: Over -143; Under +118

LEICESTER CITY

With a home record of W7, D6, L6, last season, Leicester was an indifferent home side in the previous campaign, but they exceeded expectations in home matches against the eventual top six (W2, D1, L3). Across all competitions, the champions of the 2015/16 campaign have won at least one home game against Liverpool in each of the last three seasons.

The Foxes weren’t lucky in the opener against Manchester United on the road but they bounced back with a couple of wins over Wolves and Southampton, while they also secured a comfortable 4-0 victory over Fleetwood Town in the Carabao Cup in the midweek. Christian Fuchs, Iborra, Kelechi Iheanacho, and Rachid Ghezzal scored in a route over Fleetwood, while Demarai Gray and Harry Maguire scored in a 2-1 comeback victory over Southampton on the road last weekend.

Betting Trends:

  • 60% of Leicester’s defeats in 2017/18 came with them trailing at half-time
  • Leicester scored at least a goal in the previous six Premier League matches

LIVERPOOL

Though Liverpool has a mixed record at Leicester, three straight wins – with nine scored and none conceded – is just one goal short of being the Reds’ best-ever start to a Premier League campaign. Liverpool can now defend as well as attack, but their away record last season (W9, D5, L5) keeps them as mere second-favorites to lift the title.

The last time the Reds won their three first matches in the league, they went on to become runners-up in 2013/14. They have never won their opening four matches in the Premier League era, so this could be their year.

Liverpool is the only team in the EPL that didn’t allow a single goal yet, and after defeating West Ham and Crystal Palace, the Reds secured a minimal 1-0 victory over Brighton at Anfield last week. Mohamed Salah scored the game’s only goal in the 23rd minute in a match where Liverpool dominated and had 22 shots and 70% of ball possession, but Alisson was a here as the Brazilian goalkeeper kept the net intact late in the tilt.

Betting Trends:

  • 74% of Liverpool’s away matches in the 2017/18 EPL produced over 2.5 goals – a league high
  • Liverpool has been ahead at halftime in 13 of their last 15 victories

Liverpool won eight out of the previous 13 H2H encounters including both games in the 2017/18, while the Foxes were victorious in three out of the past four meetings in the Premier League at the King Power Stadium. The Reds didn’t record an away win over Leicester by more than one goal since December 2014, and considering the Foxes’ form at the moment, I don’t think they will do it here.

MY PICK: AH Leicester +1.5 (-143)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Five out of the last six H2H duels have seen over 2.5 goals scored and/or both teams score and two tilts last season produced eight goals, so I expect to see plenty of goals on this one and Liverpool to finally concede.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 goals (+120)

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