EPL Match of the Day Round 38 – Liverpool vs. Wolves (5/12/19)


The Reds will be highly motivated to get three points after heroics against Barcelona in the Champions League but they will need a favor from Brighton as well. The game between Liverpool and Wolves will take place at Anfield on May 12th, 2019.

Liverpool vs. Wolves

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Three-Way: 1: Liverpool -333; X: +500 Draw; 2: Wolves +1000 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -1.5: Liverpool -103; Wolves -103

Total 3 goals: Over -101; Under -120


Title contenders Liverpool host this finale having won eight Premier League matches in succession. The Reds have scored inside the final 15 minutes on seven occasions within that sequence, with goals in that time zone alone directly gaining Liverpool a net total of eight points.

Since last dropping points in a home league match, Liverpool recovered to win six consecutive PL matches at Anfield, with the four played against non-top-six opposition seeing the Reds win both halves. Additionally, the last three games in that quartet have also seen Liverpool score at least twice beyond the hour mark.

A 4-0 win over Barcelona in the second leg of the Champions League semis was one of the biggest results in the club’s history and they will be hoping for another miracle on Sunday.

Jurgen Klopp will be without Roberto Firmino (groin), Naby Keita (groin), and Adam Lallana (muscle) while Andy Robertson is listed as questionable with a calf injury sustained in the first half against Barcelona. Good news for Klopp is that Mohamed Salah will return to the lineup after recovering from a head injury.

Betting Trends:

  • Sadio Mane needs at least a brace to stay in contention for the PL top scorer award
  • Mane has scored three PL braces at Anfield this calendar year alone, with four of the six goals in question arriving in the opening half-hour
  • Over a third (eight) of the last 21 PL goals scored by Liverpool at Anfield have arrived beyond the hour mark


Now assured of seventh place, and possible qualification to the Europa League qualifiers, Wolves’ away league record against the top-six this season stands at W1, D3, L1. Each draw ended 1-1, with the equalizers (either way) arriving in the second half.

Each of Wolves’ last four PL away games have produced over 1.5 total goals, and relevantly, Wolves’ last two away league matches won/lost either way against top-six opposition have both produced over 2.5 match goals.

Nuno Espirito Santo doesn’t have any new injury-related concerns as all of the players are healthy and at his disposal for the final day of the championship.

Betting Trends:

  • Opening the first-half scorer in his last road trip, Raul Jimenez (13 PL goals and seven assists) is the last Wolves man to give his side a PL lead at a top-six club
  • Three of Wolves’ last four PL away games have seen the first two match goals shared equally

Liverpool won six out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D1, L3) including the reverse fixture this season when they beat Wolves 2-0, while the Reds were victorious in three of the past five meetings at Anfield. Wolves have just one away victory in the last seven games while Liverpool recorded seven consecutive wins in front of their own fans, keeping a clean sheet in the last four and that’s why I am backing the hosts to cover the -1.5 spread here.

MY PICK: AH -1.5 Liverpool (-103)

ADDITIONAL PICK: None of the last ten H2H duels produced more than three goals and considering that I don’t think Wolves will find the back of the net here, I am going with under as I don’t believe Liverpool will score more than three.

MY PICK: Under 3 (-120)