EPL Free Pick of the Day Round 36 – Manchester United vs. Chelsea (4/28/19)

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The Red Devils are desperate to bounce back from three consecutive defeats and are looking to score first goals in four games. The game between Manchester United and Chelsea will take place at Old Trafford on April 28th, 2019.

Manchester United vs. Chelsea

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Three-Way: 1: Man United +170; X: +250 Draw; 2: Chelsea +170 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread 0: Man United -108; Chelsea +100

Total 2.5 goals: Over -125; Under +100

MANCHESTER UNITED

A third Premier League defeat in succession would all but end Manchester United’s interest in the fight for a top-four finish. Led by a manager under scrutiny, the Red Devils have returned a paltry record from PL home games against top-six peers to date this season (D2, L2), with both defeats also seeing United fail to score.

Interestingly, six of the seven goals conceded by United in that select sequence of home games arrived in the second half. Their lack of staying power is further evidenced by the fact that (across all venues) United have gone on to lose to-nil in the last three PL matches where they have conceded first.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be without Antonio Valencia who is still recovering from a muscle injury, while Eric Bailly (head), Ander Herrera (thigh), and Phil Jones (knee) are listed as doubtful to face Chelsea.

Betting Trends:

  • Paul Pogba has nine PL goals and six assists since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over as United boss
  • December 2013 remains the last time United lost successive home PL games to nil

CHELSEA

Chelsea travels to Old Trafford in pole position for a top-four finish. However, there is no end in sight for Chelsea’s awayday woes, with the Blues still being without a single point (or even a goal!) this calendar year, from PL matches away to any side currently above the relegation zone.

Those defeats have all come by a margin of multiple goals, although three of the last four PL away matches against such opposition have at least seen Chelsea hold out to go in level at the break. On all three occasions, the first opposition goal arrived within the 15 minutes immediately following the interval.

Maurizio Sarri cannot count on Callum Hudson-Odoi (Achilles tendon), while Marcos Alonso (lower back) and N’Golo Kante (chest) are listed as questionable to feature on Sunday.

Betting Trends:

  • Heading the visitors’ attack, Gonzalo Higuain is the last man to draw first blood for Chelsea in a PL away match
  • Chelsea scored first in four of their last five clashes with United, yielding a record of W2, D1, L1, after doing so

Chelsea won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D3, L3) but the Blues are without a win in the last two duels, while the Red Devils were victorious in the past two meetings at Old Trafford. The reverse fixture ended 2-2, while United won 2-0 at Stamford Bridge in the FA Cup and they scored two goals in each of the last two games at Old Trafford. The Red Devils didn’t lose to Chelsea at home in the last five but I don’t think they are playing well enough and that’s why I am going with a draw.

MY PICK: Draw (+250)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Only seven of the last ten H2H duels produced three or more goals and considering United’s poor form and lack of goals lately, I don’t think the rivals will combine for more than two goals. Backing under 2.5 goals at +100 odds seems like a solid option in this one.

MY PICK: Under 2.5 (+100)

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