EPL Match of the Day Round 32 – Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur (3/31/19)

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The Reds are one point behind the reigning champions Manchester City and they have an imperative to beat Spurs in the derby of the Premier League round 32. The game between Liverpool and Tottenham will take place at the Anfield on March 31st, 2019.

Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Three-Way: 1: Liverpool -182; X: +350 Draw; 2: Tottenham +550 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -1: Liverpool -108; Tottenham -103

Total 3 goals: Over +112; Under -135

LIVERPOOL

Liverpool is a big favorite to claim another Premier League home win, having failed to make good on that status just once this calendar year. Since that one occasion, a 1-1 home draw with Leicester on Jan 30, the Reds have won three successive PL home games and scored 3+ goals in the process.

Consistency is the key behind every successful title race, and Liverpool’s first-half home PL performances certainly have that in abundance, with the Reds netting exactly twice before the break (and witnessing at least one Sadio Mane goal) in each of their last three home league wins.

Liverpool is on a 12-game unbeaten run and before the international break, Jurgen Klopp’s side connected three victories including the most recent one over Fulham on the road. Sadio Mane opened the scoring in the 26th minute and although the hosts equalized through former Liverpool player Ryan Babel, the substitute James Milner was accurate from the penalty spot to give the Reds all three points.

Jurgen Klopp cannot count on Joe Gomez who is still recovering from a broken ankle, while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is out with a thigh injury and they will not feature on Sunday.

Betting Trends:

  • Last season’s league meeting at Anfield saw Mo Salah score a brace for Liverpool
  • Across all competitions, four of Liverpool’s last five matches (vs all opponents) have produced over 2.5 match goals

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

A run of three successive away PL defeats have robbed Tottenham of the top spot in the away league table. Still, they went into the weekend as the only top-six team to win an away PL game after losing the first half, but their away league record against top-six sides this term is W1, L2.

Curiously, both of those PL away defeats against fellow top-six sides saw Tottenham avoid defeat in the first half (W1, D1), but lose the second to-nil. Relevantly, against all opponents, Tottenham’s last three PL away defeats have each seen them concede exactly twice in the second half, and ship a goal at least once beyond the 75th minute.

Spurs recorded just one win in the last five games in all competitions and even though they got to a 1-0 lead through Harry Kane at Southampton, the Saints responded with goals from Yann Valery and James Ward-Prowse to make it 2-1 for the hosts.

Mauricio Pochettino will be without Eric Dier (groin) and Harry Winks (hip), while Serge Aurier is listed as doubtful with a thigh injury.

Betting Trends:

  • Harry Kane scored from the penalty spot in injury time to snatch a point for Tottenham the last time they visited Liverpool
  • Tottenham lost the first half in five of the last six H2Hs with Liverpool and failed to keep a clean sheet in seven

Liverpool won five of the previous ten H2H encounters including the reverse fixture this season when they beat Spurs 2-1 in London, while the Reds were victorious in five of the past seven meetings at Anfield. Tottenham has only one victory at this venue in this century and they are without a win in the previous four Premier League games, and I don’t think they can stop Liverpool from getting three points here. Spurs conceded 2+ goals in five of their last six away games and I am backing the hosts to cover the -1 spread in this one.

MY PICK: AH -1 Liverpool (-108)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Tottenham is rather inefficient in away games lately as they managed to score in two of their last five road matches and I wouldn’t be surprised if they fail to find the back of the net here. I don’t expect Liverpool to score more than two goals and that’s why I am backing under 2.5 goals and no goals on both ends.

MY PICK: Under 2.5 & NO (+175)

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