EPL Match of the Day Round 23 – Arsenal vs. Chelsea (1/19/19)

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The Gunners are hoping to stay in the race for the Champions League places but they need to get three points against the city rivals who are currently six points ahead and sitting in the 4th place in the Premier League. The game between Arsenal and Chelsea will take place at the Emirates Stadium on January 19th, 2018.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea 

Three-Way: 1: Arsenal +210; X: +260 Draw; 2: Chelsea +137 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread 0: Arsenal +124; Chelsea -133

Total 3 goals: Over +114; Under -137

ARSENAL

Sitting six points off their fourth-placed visitors after last weekend’s 1-0 loss at West Ham, Arsenal (W12, D5, L5) realistically cannot afford to lose if they want a Champions League return. Yet with just one Premier League victory over Chelsea in 14 games (W1, D5, L8) since 2011, the Gunners will be underdogs here.

Last weekend’s loss marked the first time this league season that Arsenal has failed to score since opening day. That forms part of a relatively poor run since mid-December (W2, D1, L3), especially considering their previous 22-game unbeaten run (in all competitions). Still, the home form remains good with just one EPL defeat all season (W8, D2, L1) and seven victories coming with a -1 handicap.

West Ham secured three points thanks to Declan Rice’s goal in the 48th minute and Arsenal failed to score on the other end and now that mustn’t lose this game or else Chelsea will be nine points clear and the Gunners’ Champions League chances will be minimized.

Unai Emery will be without Rob Holding (knee) and Danny Welbeck (ankle), while Henrikh Mkhitaryan is listed as questionable due to an ankle injury.

Betting Trends:

  • Both of Aaron Ramsey’s goals and four of his six assists this EPL season have been as a substitute
  • Arsenal’s Premier League games average a league-high 3.55 goals
  • October 2016 was the last time Arsenal drew 0-0 at home in the EPL, a run of 44 games
  • Arsenal scored ten Premier League goals at home from the 76th minute onwards without reply

CHELSEA

Chelsea (W14, D5, L3) is unbeaten in their last four league games (W3, L1) and arrive at the Emirates on a run of three straight one-goal margin EPL away wins. With just eight goals conceded on their travels (W7, D1, L2), only two sides have conceded less.

Last week’s win over Newcastle means the Blues have now opened the scoring in 73% (16/22) of their league games, which rises to 80% (8/10) in away matches. Chelsea didn’t impress in a 2-1 win over the Magpies but secured deserved three points thanks to goals from Pedro and Willian, while Ciaran Clark scored the only goal for the visitors.

Maurizio Sarri cannot count on Ruben Loftus-Cheek (lower back) and Marco Van Ginkel (knee), while the striker Alvaro Morata is struggling with a thigh injury and is doubtful for the clash with the Gunners.

Betting Trends:

  • Eden Hazard has ten goals and ten assists this EPL campaign – three of his four historical Premier League goals vs Arsenal are penalties
  • Chelsea average 1.90 goals per away EPL match as opposed to 1.75 at home
  • Chelsea has been behind at half-time just once this Premier League season

Arsenal won four out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D3, L3) but Chelsea was better in this season as they beat the Gunners 3-2 at the Stamford Bridge, while Arsenal was victorious in three of the past four meetings at the Emirates. Chelsea is ten points behind the league leaders Liverpool and they still have a slim chance to fight for the title but need three points here, while Arsenal is looking for a win in order to stay alive in the race for the UCL spot. I cannot separate these two at the moment and that’s why I am backing a draw here.

MY PICK: Draw (+260)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Three out of the previous four H2H duels produced over 2.5 goals and goals on both ends and considering that both teams will be looking for three points, I expect to see at least three goals rather than a low-scoring affair. I am not impressed with the teams’ respective defenses and I don’t think neither of them will keep the clean sheet and I am going with BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (-110)

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