EPL Match of the Day Round 12 – Manchester City vs. Manchester United (11/11/18)

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The “noisy neighbors” Manchester City are unbeaten in 53 Premier League matches against sides starting the game outside the top four (W44, D9). Manchester United will look to spoil that record as they travel across the city for a potentially fiery derby affair. The game between Manchester City and Manchester United will take place at the Etihad Stadium on November 11th, 2018.

Manchester City vs. Manchester United 

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Three-Way: 1: Man City -250; X: +425 Draw; 2: Man United +750 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -1.5: Man City +104; Man United -112

Total 3.5 goals: Over +120; Under -143

MANCHESTER CITY

Unbeaten this EPL season (W9, D2), City have the league’s best home attack (24 goals scored), best attack overall (33), and best defense (four conceded). Strangely, three of those four conceded were scored by defenders, while the other was a penalty.

At home, City has six wins from six, registering three clean sheets and conceding just three goals. In fact, City has lost only once in 37 EPL home matches since December 15, 2016 – however that loss came against United.

The Citizens are on a six-game winning streak and their last “victim” was Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League as Pep Guardiola’s side destroyed them at Etihad, 6-0. Gabriel Silva recorded a hat-trick, while David Silva, Riyad Mahrez, and Raheem Sterling also scored to help City qualifying for the knockout stage.

Pep Guardiola will be without Kevin De Bruyne who suffered another injury only a couple of matches since he returned from the previous setback and will be out for another month. The goalkeeper Claudio Bravo is sidelined with an Achilles tendon rupture and will likely be out for the season, while Eliaquim Mangala is suffering from a knee injury and is out of contention.

Betting Trends:

  • Sergio Agüero has 17 goals and five assists in his last 13 Premier League games at the Etihad
  • City scored 48 goals in 15 EPL home games in 2018, an average of 3.4 per game, while they have failed to score just once
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 21 of City’s last 24 top-flight home games

MANCHESTER UNITED

The visitors remain unbeaten in four Premier League games (W3, D1) and have lost just once since the start of September (W5, D2, L1). However, a leaky defense has resulted in 18 goals conceded already – only five teams have conceded more ahead of this round.

On the road, United have three wins in six PL trips (W3, D1, L2), scoring exactly two goals in five of those matches. They are seeking a second-successive EPL win at City, for the first time since 2010. The Red Devils will be boosted after a comeback Champions League victory at Turin as they came from behind to defeat favored Juventus, 2-1. Cristiano Ronaldo gave Juve a lead in the 65th minute with a perfectly timed volley but Juan Mata scored from a free-kick in the 86th before unlucky Leonardo Bonucci hit his own net in the 90th minute to gift precious three points to Man United.

Jose Mourinho doesn’t have any new injury-related concerns as only Antonio Valencia is out, while Romelu Lukaku could feature after missing the last two games, but it seems that United is playing better without him in the lineup.

Betting Trends:

  • Anthony Martial has scored in each of his last four EPL fixtures
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in United’s last five EPL matches
  • United kept just one Premier League clean sheet this season – that was at Burnley back in September

Manchester United won four out of the previous eight H2H encounters (D 2, L2) including two out of the last four, while the Red Devils were victorious in the latest meeting at the Etihad as they came from 2-0 behind to secure a 3-2 victory in April this year. The Citizens are without a win over fierce rivals at their own ground in the last three duels and even though they are at the top of the Premier League at the moment, the -250 odds are quite low and a bit underestimating, so I am backing the visitors to cover the +1.5 spread here.

MY PICK: AH +1.5 Manchester United (-112)

ADDITIONAL PICK: United is struggling to keep their net intact recently but they scored two goals in each of the previous three games, so I am backing them to find a net behind Ederson’s back at the Etihad. The last two H2H clashes produced goals on both sides with over 2.5 goals, so I am going with BTTS and over 2.5 here as well.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (+100)

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