English Premier League Pick of the Day Round 24 – Chelsea vs. Arsenal (1/21/20)

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Chelsea’s four-game unbeaten streak ended with a surprising 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United on the road, and now the Blues are hoping to get a win over Arsenal and stay five points ahead of the 5th-placed Manchester United. Arsenal, on the other hand, is without a win in the last two, but the Gunners are unbeaten in the previous four and are hoping for a positive result here. The match between Chelsea and Arsenal will take place at Stamford Bridge on January 21st, 2020.

Chelsea vs. Arsenal

Three-Way: 1: Chelsea -125; X: +300 Draw; 2: Arsenal +375 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -0.5: Chelsea -133; Arsenal +112

Total 2.5 goals: Over -143; Under +129

CHELSEA

Reliant on strong starts, Chelsea went on to register the next match goal (if any) in four of the last six Premier League home games in which they scored the opening goal. That said, their 50% win-rate in home league games entered as favorites this term shows there is room for improvement.

Furthermore, Chelsea’s last five PL home games (W2, L3) have seen the second half won 1-0 by the winner on the day. Yet, with five of Chelsea’s last six PL home victories coming after a level half-time score, the second period could decide who takes all three points.

Frank Lampard will be without Christian Pulisic (groin) and Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Achilles tendon), while Reece James is questionable with a knee injury.

Betting Trends:

  • Tammy Abraham scored the winner in the reverse H2H – seven of his last eight goals have put the Blues in a leading position
  • Chelsea last won a Premier League home game after conceding first back in September 2018
  • Chelsea won both halves in their last three PL H2H home fixtures to yield a 1-0 half-time lead

ARSENAL

Seven of Arsenal’s last eight Premier League away games have seen them fail to score a first-half goal from open play. The odd one out is Arsenal’s previous road trip (1-1), a result that now means the Gunners travel across London with just one win from their last ten away league games.

Arsenal last won in the league at Stamford Bridge back in October 2011, gaining a PL record of D1, L6 since. In addition, four of those six defeats came after a first half lost to nil, while 50% of those losses saw Arsenal lose one half by a 2-0 scoreline.

Betting Trends:

  • Nicolas Pépé scored the decisive winner in the Gunners’ last victory over a fellow top-six team of 2018/19, doing so inside the first ten minutes
  • Arsenal last scored in both halves of a PL away win back in November 2018

Arsenal won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D3, L3), but Chelsea won three of the last four, while the Blues were victorious in six of the past eight meetings at Stamford Bridge (D2). The Gunners recorded just one away victory in the last 11 games in all competitions and failed to score a single goal in five of the last eight duels at this venue. Arsenal did show a bit of improvement under new head coach Mikel Arteta, but it is nothing drastic, and the Gunners still have the same old problems – the defense. They have the worst defense out of the top 10 teams in the Premier League and managed to keep the clean sheet only twice on the road in the PL this season. Arsenal has the most draws (11) in the league, so the visitors can hope to get another one here. However, I am backing Chelsea to get three points and bounce back from a shocking loss to Newcastle United.

MY PICK: Chelsea (-125)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Even though Arsenal has not been in the scoring mood at Stamford Bridge in recent years, I am backing the Gunners to score at least one goal on Tuesday. They scored a goal in six consecutive games, and after what we saw from Chelsea’s defense in Newcastle, I am not sure the Blues will record a clean sheet here. I am going with both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals (-105)

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