East Carolina vs. UCF College Football Betting Pick 10/19/19


The East Carolina Pirates (+33) are traveling south to face their AAC rival UCF Knights at Spectrum Stadium. The opening kickoff for this pivotal matchup is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CBS Sports Network.

East Carolina at UCF Betting Odds 10/19/2019

UCF has been tabbed as heavily favored in this one and is currently giving up 33 points to East Carolina. If the Pirates seize momentum early it’ll result in a decent betting scenario in-game. The over/under has been set at 61 points.

The betting odds have moved slightly from where they initially opened. The opening line was -33 and the game’s over/under was originally set at 60.5.

The Pirates are 3-3 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against AAC opponents. The Knights are 4-2 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play. The Pirates are down 0.7 units so far and 3-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 0-6.

The Knights have lost 3.8 units this season. The team is 3-3 ATS and has an even O/U record of 3-3.

The Pirates fell to Temple 27-17 in a game where the passing attack could’ve been more effective as Holton Ahlers completed only 19 passes on 39 attempts for 229 yards and two touchdowns. Demetrius Mauney (45 rushing yards on 12 attempts) and the signal-caller Ahlers (26 yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack in the loss. C.J. Johnson (eight receptions, 100 yards, two TDs) and Blake Proehl (two catches, 32 yards) shared the receiving duties.

UCF narrowly suffered a 27-24 defeat to Cincinnati. The team’s defense let the Bearcats run for 192 yards on 41 rush attempts. Michael Warren II had a solid showing in the win, posting 133 rushing yards on 23 attempts for Cincinnati. For UCF, Dillon Gabriel completed 25-of-46 passes for 297 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Greg McCrae (71 rushing yards on 17 attempts, one TD) and Otis Anderson (45 yards on 12 carries) mounted the ground game in the defeat while Gabriel Davis (13 receptions, 170 yards) and Tre Nixon (six catches, 76 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.

Each of these squads sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. East Carolina’s run the ball on 54.0 percent of its offensive possessions while UCF has a rush percentage of 55.8. The Pirates have run for 161 yards per game (including 91 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have six touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Knights are putting up 215 rushing yards per contest (178 in conference) and have 14 total rush TDs.

If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then it seems like the Knights may own the edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game. Their backfield has logged 5.0 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 3.7 to opponents. The Pirates have recorded 4.3 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 3.9 to opponents.

The Pirates have logged 203 yards/game through the air overall (184 per game versus conference opposition) and have six passing scores so far. The Knights have recorded 330 pass yards per outing (337.0 in the AAC) and have 19 total pass TDs.

East Carolina has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 166 yards and pass for 201 yards per game. UCF has allowed 131.7 yards per game on the ground and 195.8 to opponents in the air. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.11 to opponents, while the Pirates have given up a 5.32 ANY/A.

Ahlers has amassed 940 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 90-of-164 attempts with four passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Ahlers has a 4.64 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.06 over the last two games.

Blake Proehl (215 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), C.J. Johnson (187 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Demetrius Mauney (192 rush yards) have each played significant roles lately.

Dillon Gabriel has produced 1,354 yards, 12 TDs and five INTs for UCF. His ANY/A sits at 8.22 for the year and 7.47 across his last two outings.

We’re expecting the Knights to dictate game flow by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to Gabriel Davis (550 receiving yards, five receiving TDs this season), Greg McCrae (369 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Otis Anderson (225 rush yards, two rush TDs, 70 receiving yards, one TD) have been significant focal points in the Knights’ recent offensive strategies.

When these two programs faced each other a year ago, UCF knocked off East Carolina easily 37-10.

East Carolina Pirates vs. UCF Knights Free Prediction

SU Winner – UCF, ATS Winner – East Carolina, O/U – Under


Betting Notes

Both teams have lost three fumbles this season.

The East Carolina defense has sacked opposing QBs 15 times this year. UCF has registered 12 sacks.

East Carolina has rushed for 4.0 yards per attempt across its last three games and 2.9 over its last two.

UCF has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.5 over its past two.

Over its last three matches, UCF is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for East Carolina’s previous game was set at 46.5. The under cashed in the team’s 27-17 defeat to Temple.

Over its last three games, East Carolina is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

The Over/Under for UCF’s previous matchup was set at 63.5. The under cashed in the 27-24 defeat to Cincinnati.


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