East Carolina vs. Connecticut College Football Betting Pick 11/23/19


In a display of two schools that like running the football, Head Coach Mike Houston and the East Carolina Pirates (-14.5) will be taking on the Connecticut Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. ESPN 3 is scheduled to televise the action and this AAC matchup gets underway at 12:00 p.m. ET.

East Carolina at Connecticut Betting Odds 11/23/2019

The spread for this AAC game is sitting at 14.5 points in favor of East Carolina. The Pirates are currently receiving -750 moneyline odds while the Huskies are +510. This AAC tilt will probably present multiple in-game betting possibilities. The over/under is set at 66 points.

Square bettors are hammering the Pirates. The line opened at 13, while the game’s total has not moved after it was initially set at 66.

The Pirates are 3-7 straight up (SU), including 0-6 SU against AAC opponents. The Huskies are 2-8 SU overall and 0-6 SU in conference play. The Pirates are down 1.7 units so far and 6-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 4-6.

The Huskies have gained 0.0 units this season. They’re 4-6 ATS and also have an O/U record of 4-6.

When these two programs met last year, East Carolina knocked off East Carolina easily 55-21.

The Pirates will try to bounce back after a 59-51 defeat to SMU on November 9. The defense allowed the Mustangs to pass for 414 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 222 yards and three scores. Xavier Jones was on a different level for the Mustangs in that one with 157 rushing yards and all three touchdowns on 20 attempts. On the offense, Holton Ahlers completed 32-of-42 passes for 498 yards and six touchdowns. Tay Williams (61 rushing yards on 14 attempts) mounted the running attack. Tyler Snead (19 receptions, 240 yards, three TDs) and Audie Omotosho (four catches, 77 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Back on November 9, Cincinnati took care of this Connecticut crew by a score of 48-3. The Huskies defensive unit let the Bearcats rush for 307 yards on 43 attempts, including four rush TDs. Gerrid Doaks had a good showing for Cincinnati, recording 123 rushing yards and a score on 13 attempts. As a group, the Huskies collectively completed 10-of-23 passes for 70 yards and one interception. Jack Zergiotis went four-for-14 for 35 yards and one interception while Mike Beaudry was six-of-nine for 35 yards. Kevin Mensah (115 yards on 24 rush attempts) and Art Thompkins (55 yards on seven carries) spearheaded the running game while Thompkins (three receptions, 12 yards) and Ardell Brown (three catches, 29 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

East Carolina’s run the ball on 52.1 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 49.8 percent across possessions in conference play. Connecticut has an overall rush percentage of 54.5 percent, and has kept it on the ground 52.2 percent of the time when facing AAC opponents. The Pirates have produced 149 rush yards per game (including 117 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have nine touchdowns on the ground this year. The Huskies are averaging 137 rushing yards per contest (126 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.

If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then the Pirates ought to have an advantage when it comes to quarterback protection, as their offensive line has given up only 25 sacks while the D-line logged 33 sacks. The Huskies, on the other hand, have allowed 28 sacks and their defense has forced only 11 sacks.

The Pirates have logged 278 yards per contest in the air overall (323 per game against conference opposition) and have 18 passing TDs so far. The Huskies have put up 191 pass yards per game (194.8 against AAC competition) and have 10 total pass scores.

Defensively, East Carolina has allowed 206 rush yards and 238 pass yards per game. Connecticut has allowed 228.6 rushing yards per game and 223.3 to opponents in the air. The Pirates are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.91 to opposing QBs, while the Huskies have allowed an 8.37 ANY/A.

Ahlers has put up 2,170 passing yards on the year, and has completed 171-of-292 attempts with 13 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. Ahlers has a 6.36 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 12.15 over the past two outings.

On the other sideline, Jack Zergiotis has accounted for 909 yards, four TDs and seven INTs. Zergiotis’ ANY/A stands at a minuscule 3.70 for the year and 1.63 across his last two games.

East Carolina Pirates vs. Connecticut Huskies Free Prediction

SU Winner – East Carolina, ATS Winner – East Carolina, O/U – Under


Team Betting Notes

The O/U for East Carolina’s last game was set at 73.5. The over cashed in the team’s 59-51 defeat to SMU.

East Carolina has averaged 3.3 yards per rush attempt across its past three contests and 3.6 over its last two.

Connecticut has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.3 over its last two.

Both teams have lost six fumbles this season.

In its last three games, East Carolina is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The O/U for Connecticut’s previous game going into it was 53.5. The under cashed in the team’s 48-3 loss to Cincinnati.

Over its last three contests, Connecticut is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

Connecticut has dropped nine of its last 10 games SU, with a 21-point win over Massachusetts on October 26th representing the one victory over that span.

The Pirates offense has registered eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Huskies have put up three such plays.

Both teams have allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards. The East Carolina defense has given up 15 pass plays of 30+ yards while Connecticut has yielded 16 such plays.

The East Carolina offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Connecticut has created 11 such runs.

The Pirates defense has allowed 25 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Huskies have given up 16 such runs.

The East Carolina defense has 19 sacks on the year while Connecticut has 18.