Early NCAA Basketball Power Rating Plays 3/8/18


We’ll take a look at a couple of the early college basketball games from a sides perspective, as we already looked at several of the early totals and will be back later after all of the lines have been posted for teams who were in action last night. Most of our projections are pretty close to the lines in the games that have been posted so far.

Game 718, UNLV vs. Nevada: The public is on Nevada-6 pretty good in this one and I hate to be on the same side as they are, but have to believe it’s justified in this spot. I have the Wolfpack winning by 10 and don’t see them pulling any punches against their instate rival and will keep the pressure on. Nevada has been the little brother to the Rebels for a number of years and think they’ll look to make the most of the opportunity to knock UNLV out of the tournament. Since the projection is just four points away from the line it won’t be a large play by any means, a little less than a normal wager.

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Game 696, Providence vs. Creighton: Creighton is favored by 4 in this one and the total is 147.5 and I have Creighton winning by 7, which isn’t all that great of a difference between the line and the projection, but the majority of the games are pretty close and will also make this play a bit smaller than a typical bet.

Game 662, Louisville vs. Virginia: The Cavs are down to 6.5 at many outlets and I have Viriginia winning by 8, which may be a little bit on the low side. Those who read several of my power rating articles know I’ve been touting Virginia for a while, as they didn’t have the name recognition as several of the other top teams, although that’s all changed now that’re No. 1 in the country. Will make a small play on Virginia, as much of a small anti-public play as because of the ratings and their 8-point margin of victory projection.

Game 690, Miami vs. Toledo: Toledo is favored by 5.5 and I have the Rockets coming away with a 76-73 victory, so once again a small play on the underdog here, as we have just a difference of 2.5 points between the line and our projection. On a regular day, this would be a game I’d stay away from, but will go against the gran a little bit in this spot, where Toledo is receiving nearly 75% of the wagers in the game.