Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Week 15 Betting Pick

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The Denver Broncos (+12) are heading east to face their AFC West foe Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. This early afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can view the action live on CBS.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds 12/15/2019

Kansas City is favored by 12 points in this AFC game. The Broncos are currently receiving +400 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are -600. The over/under is set at 46.5 points. Some decent in-game betting opportunities might exist during this showdown.

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The opening line was -12 while the over/under hasn’t moved after being initially set at 46.5.

The Broncos are 5-8 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against AFC West opponents. The Chiefs are 9-4 SU overall and 4-0 SU against divisional foes. The Broncos are 8-5 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.6 units this season. The team has recorded an O/U mark of 6-7.

The Chiefs have gained 0.6 units so far. The team is 8-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 7-6.

The Broncos want to keep things rolling after a 38-24 victory over Houston last week. Drew Lock completed 22 passes on 27 attempts for 309 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Phillip Lindsay (just 51 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) provided the ground attack in the win while Courtland Sutton (five receptions, 34 yards) and Noah Fant (four catches, 113 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.

Kansas City just got a 23-16 win over New England a week ago. The team’s allowed the Patriots to tally 204 yards through the air and 94 more on the ground. Julian Edelman had a productive outing in the loss for New England, recording 95 yards on eight catches. For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes completed 26-of-40 passes for 283 yards, one touchdown and one interception. LeSean McCoy (39 rushing yards on 11 attempts) spearheaded the ground attack in the win while Travis Kelce (seven receptions, 66 yards) and Tyreek Hill (six catches, 62 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Denver has run the ball on 45.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas City has an overall rush percentage of 38.1 percent. The Broncos have rushed for 107 yards/game (including 110 per game against West opponents) and have nine touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Chiefs are putting up 93 rushing yards per contest (84 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.

It seems like the Chiefs could hold an edge in the trenches. Their offensive line has given up only 21 sacks while the D-line has logged 37 sacks. The Broncos offensive line has given up 37 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 31 times.

The Broncos have averaged 217 yards in the air overall (199 per game against conference opposition) and have 14 passing scores so far. The Chiefs have put up 302 pass yards per outing (248.3 against AFC foes) and have 25 total pass TDs.

Denver seems to possess an advantage in both defensive facets. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 115 yards and throw for 229 yards per game. Kansas City has allowed 137.7 yards per game on the ground and 248.8 to opponents in the air. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Broncos have given up an ANY/A of 5.82 to opposing QBs, while the Chiefs are yielding an ANY/A of 5.51.

Lock has been more efficient than Mahomes of late, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 11.29for the season (and 7.95 over the last two outings). Mahomes’ ANY/A is 8.70 for the season and 6.04 over his last two games.

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Free Prediction

SU Winner – Chiefs, ATS Winner – Broncos, O/U – Under

Notes

Team Betting Trends

The Kansas City D has notched 37 sacks on the year while Denver has just 31.

The Kansas City offense has lost 10 fumbles in 2019 while the Denver offense has let five get away.

The Broncos offense has recorded nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Chiefs have accounted for 16 such plays.

The Denver defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Kansas City has given up six such plays.

The Denver offense has created six rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Kansas City has created nine such runs.

The Broncos defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Chiefs have given up seven such runs.

The Over/Under for Kansas City’s last game was set at 47. The under cashed in the 23-16 win over New England.

Over its last three matchups, Kansas City is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

Over its last three games, Denver is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Denver’s last game was set at 42.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-24 victory over Houston.

Denver has rushed for 3.8 yards per attempt over its last three games and 3.3 over its last two.

Kansas City has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.9 over its past two.