The Utah Jazz (31-13) can continue an eight-game home winning streak when they take on the Dallas Mavericks (28-16) at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Utah opened as a 3-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 226 points. Action gets underway at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 25, 2020.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Free Preview
In the Mavericks’ last matchup, they were victorious over the Portland Trail Blazers, 133-125, covering as 7-point favorites. Luka Doncic led Dallas in scoring with 27 points on 11-for-25 shooting. Dallas played a nearly perfect game. They had an absurdly low turnover percentage of 7.2 (better than their season average of 10.9) and a free throw rate of 0.161 (matching their season average). Portland had marks of 10.9 and 0.132, respectively, for those same stats. The two teams combined to score 258 points, which came in well over the O/U total of 232.5.
The Jazz will look to keep it rolling after easily covering the 9-point spread against the Golden State Warriors in their last outing, 129-96. Utah’s Rudy Gobert was a key piece with 22 points and 15 rebounds. The Jazz, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.8, had an extraordinary mark of 36.6 and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.629 (above their season average of 0.549). Combined, the two teams scored 225 points, which came in over the projected point total of 220.5.
This is the first time these teams will meet this year. The Jazz won three out of four matchups played against each other last season. In the most recent game, Utah won 125-109. The Jazz dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a phenomenal free throw rate of 0.341 and an offensive rebounding percentage of 19.0. For those same stats, the Mavericks were 0.144 and 15.1, respectively.
Of Dallas’ 44 games, 27 have finished over the O/U total, while 23 of Utah’s 44 games have finished over the projected point total. The Jazz have the superior straight up (SU) record (31-13 vs. 28-16), but the Mavericks hold the sizable advantage against the spread (ATS) (26-18 vs. 23-19-2).
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Mavericks, it’s been Tim Hardaway Jr., who has averaged 17 points, while the Jazz have received great contributions from Gobert (22 points,15.0 rebounds,2.2 blocks).
Half-court execution will be critical when two of the league’s slowest-paced teams clash. Utah ranks 28th in possessions per game (100.4) and Dallas is 21st (101.3). Moreover, the elite offense of the Mavericks ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage (0.547), while the Jazz are third-best in the NBA at effective field goal percentage allowed (0.502).
Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz Prediction
Prediction: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over
The Mavericks rank first in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while the Jazz rank 13th (5.0).
Utah ranks 13th in points in the paint per game (48.2) while Dallas ranks 20th in points allowed in the paint per game (49.1).
Utah ranks fourth in rebounds allowed per game (43.0) while Dallas ranks 14th (45.3).
Neither of these teams are great at stealing the ball. Dallas is 28th in the league with 6.3 steals per game while Utah is 29th with 6.0 steals per game.
On the road, Dallas is 16-4 ATS with 13 overs and 7 unders.
At home, Utah is 11-8-1 ATS with 11 overs and 9 unders.
Utah is 12-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Dallas is 7-0.
When reaching 100 points, the Jazz are 30-8 and the Mavericks are 28-14.
The Mavericks rank 15th in assists per game (24.3) while the Jazz rank 25th (22.2).
Dallas ranks first in second chance points per game (15.0) while Utah ranks 28th (11.6).
The Jazz rank 13th in fast break points allowed per game (12.6) while the Mavericks rank last (16.5).
The Mavericks rank fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.0) while the Jazz rank 12th (16.8).
Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.2) while Utah ranks 15th (33.1).
Utah is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in its last five games.
Over its past five games, Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
The Jazz’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 18.0, up from 5.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 122.2 points per game (5.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.4 points per game (3.7 above their season average).