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The Thunder lead this first-round Western Conference series 1-0 over the Mavericks. Game two is set for 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and can be seen on ESPN. The Thunder are favored by five points and are -200 on the money line. The Mavericks are at +165, and the over/under line is at 218.5 points.

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER BETTING PICK

The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +5

This game will be played at Paycom Center at 9:30 ET on Thursday, May 9th.

WHY BET THE DALLAS MAVERICKS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 116-115 in favor of the Thunder.
  • Our projections have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finishing with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Thunder finishing with a field goal percentage of 50.0% and knocking down 14 threes.

The Thunder picked up a 22-point win in the most recent game of this Thunder/Mavericks series, winning by a score of 117-95. The game was tied at 23 after the first quarter, but the Thunder took control in the 2nd quarter, outscoring the Mavericks 39-30. The Thunder were favored by 4.5 points heading into the game and easily covered the spread.

Going into the game, the over/under line was at 218.5 points, and the teams fell 6.5 points short of that number. The Thunder held the Mavericks to just 39.3% shooting and 12 made threes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led all scorers with 29 points, and also had 9 assists and 9 rebounds. Kyrie Irving led the Mavericks with 20 points.

Do the Mavericks Have a Shot at a Road Win?

Dallas is 52-37 ATS this season, including a 29-16 record on the road. As the underdog, the Mavericks are 16-17 vs. the spread, and they are 13-20 straight-up as the underdog. Today, they are getting 5 points.

The Mavericks' O/U record for the season is 40-49, and 81 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today's line of 218.5. On average, their games have finished with 231.5 points.

In their last game vs. the Thunder, the Mavericks lost 117-95. They were 4.5-point underdogs in that game and are 13-20 as the underdog this season. The O/U line for that game was also 218.5.

Dallas is currently 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 31-21 and 19-11 in non-conference games.

Overall, the Mavericks are 52-37 ATS this season, and they have covered the spread in their last two games. On the road, their ATS record is 29-16 compared to 23-21 at home.

Offensively, the Mavericks are averaging 117.9 points per game this season, which is 8th best in the league. But they have been below the league average in terms of scoring efficiency, as they have been below the league average in 50% of their games. Dallas is 14th in pace, averaging 99.6 possessions per game.

Dallas is 3rd in the league in both three-point attempts and makes this season, averaging 14.6 made threes per game. Overall, they have hit 36% of their three-point attempts. Luka Doncic is probable for the game but has been dealing with a knee injury. Over his last five games, he has hit just 38.3% of his shots from the field and 16.3% of his threes. Kyrie Irving has hit 51.7% of his shots over his last five games and 46.2% of his threes.

So far this season, the Mavericks have been a middle of the road defensive team, ranking 18th in the league in points allowed per game at 114.6. They have been slightly better on the road, giving up 115.1 points per contest away from Dallas.

Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been playing some of their best defense of the season, allowing just 103.4 points per game during that stretch, which is the 5th best mark in the NBA.

One area where Dallas has struggled defensively this season is defending the three-point line. Opponents are shooting 36.9% from three against the Mavericks, which is 18th in the league. Over their last five games, that number has been even worse at 38.8%.

Can the Thunder Deliver Being Favored at Home?

In Thunder games this season, the average scoring total is 230.8 points per game, which is higher than today's line of 218.5. The team's O/U record for the season is 45-41-1, and the under has hit in their last three games.

Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 51-36 this season, and they have covered the spread in four straight games. At home, they are 29-15 ATS and 22-21 ATS on the road.

As the favorite, the Thunder have a straight-up record of 52-14 and are 39-27 vs. the spread. They have been favored in 66 of their 82 games this season.

The Thunder are 1st in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25. In their last game, they defeated the Mavericks by a score of 117-95, covering the spread as 4.5-point favorites. The O/U line for that game was also 218.5.

Overall, the Thunder have won 10 straight games and are favored by 5 points today. In the Western Conference, their record of 36-16 is the best among all teams.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.6 points per game over his last five games while hitting 46.6% of his shots from the field. This is part of his season average of 30.1 points per game. Jalen Williams is averaging 20.6 points per game over his last five games while hitting 50.6% of his shots from the field.

For the season, the Thunder are 3rd in scoring at 120.1 points per game. They are also 2nd in scoring at home, putting up 122.3 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage, the Thunder are 2nd in the NBA, and they are also the top three-point shooting team in terms of three-point shooting percentage.

So far this season, the Thunder have been solid defensively, ranking 10th in the league in points allowed per game at 111.4. At home, they have been even better, allowing just 109.0 points per contest, which is 7th best in the NBA.

Over their last five games, Oklahoma City has been the stingiest defense in the league, giving up just 90.6 points per game. During this stretch, opponents have struggled to find the mark from beyond the arc, hitting just 28.2% of their three-point attempts.

On the season, the Thunder are 2nd in the NBA in blocked shots at 6.6 per game and 1st in steals at 8.5 per contest. In terms of shooting percentage allowed, they have been 3rd overall at 45.2%.