The Miami Heat (36-22) will be at home in AmericanAirlines Arena when they challenge the Dallas Mavericks (36-23). Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on Friday, February 28, 2020, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Southwest.
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat ATS Preview
The Mavericks defeated the San Antonio Spurs in their last outing, 109-103, covering as 4-point favorites. With 26 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds, Luka Doncic led the way for Dallas with his 12th triple-double of the season. The Mavericks had a free throw rate of 0.233 (above their season average of 0.203) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.517 vs. 0.484). The two teams combined to score 212 points, which finished well under the O/U total of 233.
The last time the Heat played, they were 12-point favorites and were defeated by the Minnesota Timberwolves, 129-126. With 22 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists, Bam Adebayo had a good outing for Miami. Minnesota forced the Heat into a turnover percentage of 17.8 (above their season average of 12.7). Miami, meanwhile, did an excellent job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (33-43; 76.7 percent). The two teams combined to score 255 points, which finished well over the O/U total of 235.
Miami should have the advantage on the offensive side of the ball. The Heat currently rank sixth in offensive efficiency, while Dallas ranks 18th in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks should be expected to protect the ball well. They rank 3rd at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 11.9 percent). Conversely, the Heat force the eighth-fewest turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.0 percent).
Both of these teams have a tendency to finish over the O/U total. Dallas games have finished over 62.7 percent of the time, while 60.3 percent of games involving Miami have finished over. Both teams have solid straight up (SU) records (36-23 for Dallas; 36-22 for Miami), but the Mavericks have the edge against the spread (ATS). Dallas is 35-24 ATS, while the Heat are 29-27-2.
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Mavericks, it’s been Tim Hardaway Jr., who has averaged 25 points, while the Heat have received great contributions from Adebayo (17 points,11.4 rebounds,7.4 assists,2.6 steals,1.6 blocks).
These two clubs have already met once this season. The two teams combined for 240 points in that game, which was well over the projected point total of 215.5. The Heat won 122-118, covering as 9-point underdogs. Miami made good use of their 34 trips to the free throw line, making 28 of them (82.4 percent). Dallas, on the other hand, was just 11-17 (64.7 percent). Adebayo played a huge role in the victory, recording a triple-double with 18 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists.
Mavericks at Heat Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
The Mavericks rank seventh in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.9) while the Heat rank 26th (18.3).
Dallas ranks 14th in assists per game (24.3) while Miami ranks 20th in assists allowed per game (24.8).
Dallas ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.2) while Miami ranks 17th (44.8).
Miami is 26th in the league with 44.9 points in the paint per game while Dallas is 27th with 44.7 points in the paint per game.
On the road, Dallas is 22-7 ATS with 18 overs and 11 unders.
At home, Miami is 17-9-1 ATS with 18 overs and 9 unders.
Miami is 7-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Dallas is 8-0.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Heat are 35-16 and the Mavericks are 36-21.
The Heat rank 18th in steals per game (7.4) while the Mavericks rank 26th (6.1).
Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.2) while Miami ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.8).
The Heat rank fourth in fast break points allowed per game (11.9) while the Mavericks rank last (16.8).
The Mavericks rank third in blocks allowed per game (3.9) while the Heat rank fifth (4.3).
Dallas ranks third in second chance points per game (14.6) while Miami ranks 26th (11.9).
Miami is 1-4 ATS with 5 overs in its last five games.
Over its past five games, Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
The Heat have been outscored by an average of 2.0 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has defeated opponents by an average of 3.2 points.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 121.4 points per game (4.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.8 points per game (0.3 above their season average).