Home College Basketball College Basketball Betting Articles Daily Expert College Basketball ATS Picks & Betting Predictions 3/12/2020

Daily Expert College Basketball ATS Picks & Betting Predictions 3/12/2020

Getting the numbers posted now and one play to begin with and will wait and see what the lines do, as there are a few games that are right on the border. We’ve held at 42-30 the past few days after not having any plays. I’ll be on the road all day, but will come back later and update the article.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

Temple vs. SMU: Both of these teams ended the regular season with a thud. Temple has dropped five straight, while SMU has lost five or their last six. The teams split during the regular season, with each team winning at home. Temple won 97-90 and SMU won 68-52, as the Owls were all over the place shooting-wise, hitting 59.3% in their win and 32.3% in the road loss. SMU was much more consistent, shooting in the lower 40% range in both games, but think Temple is the right side in this one. SMU has 19 wins on the season and will be playing in the postseason somewhere, most likely one of the small tournaments, but with Temple sitting at 14-17, the Owls are going to need a couple of wins if they want to extend their season. Both teams are solid defensively, while SMU shoots the ball better, but Temple can match the Mustangs in 3-point shooting, which is SMU’s defensive weakness, where they allow 34.4%. Temple also defends the 3-pointer well and SMU launches more than 24 per game, so will take a shot on the Owls +3 in this one.

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END OF MARCH 12 PICKS

Nothing here on Tuesday and sort of waffling on one game tonight, as we held at 42-30 for the season with these plays. As is frequently the case, getting the numbers out there now and then will come back and look at some of the games on the schedule.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Nebraska vs. Indiana: This one just hit 14 at some places and the public is on the Hoosiers pretty good, with the Huskers having lost a couple of players to suspension. I have the Hoosiers winning by 11 on a neutral court and they should have a decent crowd advantage in this one, so want nothing to do with Nebraska in this one, but no rush to join the betting masses on the Hoosiers.

St. John’s vs. Georgetown: Much like the game above, this line is based on the injury situation for the Hoyas, who I have winning the game by 2, but with a lot up in the air, will just stay away from this one.

DePaul vs. Xavier: The betting public likes Xavier in this one and have moved the line from Xavier -4.5 to -6.5, but Paul Reed’s health is also a big concern for DePaul, who I really wanted to take here, but like the other games, just going to stay away.

Kansas State vs. TCU: TCU is getting hit hard in this one, with over 80% of the wagers in the game, but the line has held at 1.5 for the most part, with one place finally moving the game to TCU -2. I have this one even, so not much in the way of value, but would probably lean to the dog if I really had to play this one.

Georgia at Mississippi: Mississippi has moved from -2.5 to -3 in this one and I have Georgia winning by a point, so would lean to the underdog, but that’s about it in this one.

END OF MARCH 11 PICKS

Off the mark on Monday on a day that I didn’t really like the card and today looks a little better. As usual, getting the numbers up now and then will come back and take a look at the games on the schedule. We’re looking at night games, so won’t have anything for the early contests. We fell to 42-30 on the season with Monday’s loss. No official plays here today, as we’re taking it a bit easy until we get to the end-of-season-tournaments.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

Canisius vs. Iona: Iona moved from -2 to -3.5 after getting 70% of the wagers in the game. I have Canisius winning by a point, but don’t really see myself pulling the trigger on this game. Iona won both meetings during the year and defeating a team for a third time isn’t always as easy as it sounds, so would lean to the dog if I really wanted to play this one.

Marist at Niagara: Marist has moved from a 1-point underdog to a 1-point favorite with the betting being pretty well split. I have Niagara winning by 5, but no real interest in playing them after they were drilled both times during the regular season. Niagara finished with a better conference record than Marist, but it looks as though the matchups may favor Marist in this one and I’ll just stay clear of this one.

Illinois Chicago at Northern Kentucky: Northern Kentucky is favored by 4, which is where they opened and Chicago has received the majority of the wagers in the game. I have Northern Kentucky winning by 10 and would lean to the favorite if forced to play this one.

St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga: Gonzaga is favored by 9 and I have them winning by 8 after they knocked off St. Mary’s both times during the season. Neither team had an easy time last night and this is probably a better one to watch than wager on. If Gonzaga can open a little space between the two, it could be a long night for the underdog. St. Mary’s has revenge for the two regular season losses, but Gonzaga knows what happened last year in this same game.

END OF MARCH 10 PICKS

The lone bright spot on Sunday, as we moved to 42-29 with these plays, but stunk it up with the rest of the college plays. Running a bit late, so just getting the numbers up and will come back and take a look at a few of the games.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Central Michigan at Ohio: Ohio opened -5.5 in this one and the line has dropped to Bobcats -5 after Ohio received more than 60% of the wagers in the game so far. I have Ohio winning this one by 3 after they won by 8 in the regular season in the lone meeting between the teams. But Ohio hit 13 of 27 3-pointers in that one, while Central Michigan was a dismal 4 for 22. Think things might even out a little bit and will take a shot on Central Michigan +5 in this one.

Eastern Michigan at Kent State: Eastern Michigan is a bit of an anomaly in the MAC, as they are one of the few times that doesn’t like to get up and down the court. They play a little bit of defense, as well, but a tough spot for them against Kent State. Eastern Michigan thumped Kent in the one meeting between the two teams this season, winning by 21, so think Kent State is out for a little revenge in this one. Still, the spread is pretty generous and if I had to play this one would lean to the away dog plus the points.

Lafayette at Georgia Southern: Georgia Southern should roll here in this one if they’re into the game, something that isn’t east at times after you’ve already beaten an opponent twice. Georgia Southern won the first meeting of the year by 20 points and then went on the road and won by 7. Would lean to the favorite in this one, but not real anxious to play the game.

St. Mary’s at BYU: The Cougars are now favored by 4 and I have them winning by 8, but after these two played games decided by 2 and 3 points, not real eager to lay that many points in this one, between two teams that have matched up well against each other this year in a pair of games that didn’t see a whole lot of defense. If I absolutely had to play this one, would still towards the Cougars but nothing more.

END OF MARCH 9 PICKS

We climbed to 41-29 on the season with our full-game side plays and will have one play for Sunday and it’s an early 2 p.m. EST start, so getting the plays listed and then coming back and looking at a few other games on the slate.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

East Carolina at Central Florida: Central Florida opened -7 in this one and the Knights are now favored by 8.5 even though the Pirates have gotten 60% of the wagers in the game so far. The Pirates have been decent underdogs this year, while the Knights haven’t been the greatest of favorites and I think that’s reflected in the line, perhaps a little too much, as UCF. UCF won at East Carolina by four points earlier this season and ECU is just 2-5 when looking to avenge a home loss.

Connecticut at Tulane: The Green Wave are getting a little bit of action in this one, as the number has moved from UConn -7 to UConn -6.5 despite the Huskies getting more than 60% of the wagers. I have this one right there against the number, with the Huskies projected to win by 7, so won’t pull the trigger on this one.

Iowa at Illinois: The Illini are favored by 3.5, which is right where this one opened, although 70% of the wagers so far in the game have come in on the home team, so you would expect to see it climb to Illinois -4 at the least. I have Illinois winning this one by 3, as they haven’t been able to close games very well this season. I have Illinois leading by 4 at the half, but Iowa outscoring them in the second half, as Illinois has a +1.8 scoring margin in conference games in the first half, but just +.1 in the second half. Iowa is just the opposite, getting outscored by 1.6 points in the first half, but having a +3.0 second half margin. Can see this one ending pretty close to the number, so will just stay clear of the full game wager.

END OF MARCH 8 PICKS

No plays here once again, so we keep our 40-29 record heading in Saturday, where we’re coming off an ugly night. We’ll get some of the numbers posted and then come back and take a look at a few of the games on the slate, as we frequently do, as first half numbers are always a bit late to be released.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Southern Utah at Montana: This line surprised me a little bit, as I expected the number to be closer to 5.5, but the Grizzlies opened 6.5 and the number is now 7 and holding there. The betting is now pretty well split, after Montana had a decent advantage in the early wagers. The Grizzlies have owned Southern Utah recently, winning the last five and covering the spread in the process. Southern Utah hasn’t played all that well lately and Montana is coming off a setback at the hands of Northern Colorado. Will take a shot on Southern Utah plus the points here in a revenge situation.

Washington at Arizona: Arizona opened -10 and the line has moved to 10.5 despite the Huskies getting the majority of the wagers. Washington showed what they can do last game, when they knocked off Arizona State, but those types of effort are few and far between. Remember, this is the same team that lost to Washington State at home. The Huskies did win the last game played in Arizona, which should help offset the revenge factor for the ‘Dawgs a little bit, and if I had to play this one would lean to the home team.

Stanford at Oregon: This one is pretty much going to be determined on how much weight you put into the revenge factor for the Oregon Ducks. The 7.5-point line is pretty accurate in this one, while I have the Ducks winning by nine and the majority of the wagers are coming in on Oregon. Part of that could have to do with the Cardinal losing to Oregon State last time out. Tough game to get a read on and Oregon waxed Stanford here last year, so would lean to the home team if I absolutely had to play it.

END OF MARCH 7 PICKS

No plays on Thursday and as we frequently do, posting the numbers and then coming back with a look at the games after we get all of the numbers up online for each our articles, so we’ll take our 40-29 record into Friday’s games, where we’ll look at the games on the East coast.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

No official plays for tonight, but we do have three other college plays, along with three in the NBA, so a decent number of plays.

Niagara at Canisius: Canisius opened 5.5 and the line has moved to Canisius -6 even though Niagara has received a slight majority of the wagers. Canisius is just 2-6 straight-up and 0-8 ATS as a favorite this season, which makes it a little hard to pull the trigger and ask them to win by at least seven.

Siena at Monmouth: Monmouth is favored by 1.5 and the line hasn’t budged with a little more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the home team. I have Monmouth winning by a pair and would give them the slightest of leans in this one.

Brown at Harvard: Harvard opened -11 and the line has dipped slightly to 10.5 with Harvard getting 55% of the early wagers. The showdown between Yale and Harvard should determine the regular season Ivy League champion and the top seed in the four-team tournament. Harvard won the first meeting between the two, but they do need to take care of business tonight. Still, they could be looking ahead a little bit and do enough to win, but not get the cover.

Yale at Dartmouth: Yale opened -7 and the line dropped to 6.5 even though Yale is getting the majority of the wagers. Yale has a one-game lead over Harvard in the standings, so can afford a loss in this one. Lean to the home dog in this one.

END OF MARCH 6 PICKS

We snuck in there by the hook with our play on Kansas State to move to 40-29 with our full-game side plays and a large number of games with late starts today, so we’ll get the numbers posted and then come back and take a look at some of the games on the schedule.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

No official plays here, as despite the large number of games I ran all the numbers for, there really isn’t a whole lot to get excited about.

Wichita at Memphis: Memphis opened -1 and the line has moved to Memphis -2 with the home team getting close to 75% of the wagers in the game so far. I’d agree with the move, but not really interested in taking such a public team, although the Tigers have been good in revenge situations, going 3-0 this season.

Northern Colorado at Montana: The Grizzlies are favored by 2 and my numbers have Northern Colorado winning by 2, but no real interest in going against Montana in a revenge situation at home. The Grizzlies may not be what they were not too long ago, but you have to respect them at home, where they are 12-1 straight-up and 8-3 against the number. The Grizzlies are 2-1 ATS avenging a road loss this year.

Southern Utah at Montana State: This one is much like the game directly above, where I have Southern Utah winning, but not really eager to go against the Bobcats at home in this spot. Montana State isn’t as strong at home this season and they’ve been in the past, but no Big Sky Conference teams look forward to the Montana trip.

Fullerton at Santa Barbara: The line has dipped a little bit in this one and several places have dropped it down to 9.5, while I have Santa Barbara winning by 8. Lean to Fullerton, who lost the first meeting between the two schools, but not quite enough to make a play on this one.

Hawaii at UC Davis: UC Davis has moved from -3 to -2 with close to 70% of the wagers in the game, so somebody likes Hawaii in this one. My numbers don’t see it, having UCD rolling to a 9-point victory, but will respect the move in this one and just sit back and watch.

END OF MARCH 5 PICKS

Ugly night all the way around last night, as this past week has been a rough one. We fall to 39-29 with our full game side plays. Running a little late, so getting all the numbers posted and coming back with a look at the games.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

Georgetown at Creighton: Creighton is favored by 12, which is what I have them winning by, but wouldn’t be surprised to see this one get a bit ugly if Creighton comes to play due to the injuries that Georgetown has. It’s a revenge game for Creighton who is coming off a butt-kicking at St. Johns and believe they’ll come out and take care of business. Would take the home team if I was going to play this one.

Kansas State at Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State is favored by 6.5 and I have them winning by 6, but will take a shot on the road dog in this one to make amends for their earlier home loss to the Cowboys. Oklahoma State outshot the Wildcats 51.2% to 35.7% and still managed to win by just five points, as the Wildcats were worse than usual from the foul line, making just 12 of 22. That’s bad even for a team who shoots 65% from the charity stripe. This one should be ugly and can see another game decided by a couple of points.

Virginia at Miami: Virginia at Miami: The Cavs are favored by 2 and my numbers have Miami winning by a point, but not so sure I want to back Miami here. With the Cavaliers coming off a victory against Duke, the ‘Canes are catching Virginia t the ideal time, but a little hard to trust Miami, who doesn’t always play the most disciplined basketball around. If I had to play it, would lean to the home underdog, but one of those games where it’s probably best to just stay clear.

END OF MARCH 4 PICKS

We haven’t had anything for a couple days here and will have one play today, as we’re still 39-28 with our full game sides.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Coastal Carolina at Lafayette: Lafayette is favored by 1.5 and I have Coastal Carolina winning by double digits, so will go ahead and take the road underdog in this one, which I had to double my numbers to make sure I didn’t have an error when putting in the stats. Coastal Carolina is not a bad road team, as they’ve gone 6-5 straight-up. In conference play, they chart out to be a couple of points better than Lafayette, so the line is pretty much where it should be when you factor in home court. Lafayette did win the last meeting between the two, although the game was played last season, but believe Coastal Carolina has been a little more consistent down the stretch and is the better team. A big reason for the projection is Coastal Carolina gets a decent advantage in strength of schedule, which you don’t see all that often at this point of the season.

Purdue at Iowa: Iowa opened -5.5 and the line is down to 4.5 despite Iowa getting 80% of the wagers. Purdue clocked Iowa when the teams met earlier this season, so people obviously playing the revenge factor, but some big money coming in on the road team, who led 61-36 at halftime when they played last month. I have Iowa winning by 4, so pretty close to the number, but have to respect the money on the visitors.

Tennessee at Kentucky: This one is pretty similar to our look at this one for the first half, as our numbers have Tennessee sneaking under the number, so I would lean that way. Kentucky opened -9 and the line dropped to 8.5 even though the Wildcats are getting 70% of the wagers in the game. I have them winning by seven and think you could make a better case for the road dog than the home favorite in this one. The Wildcats shot 54.3% from the field in their win at Tennessee and don’t think they’ll be quite as effective in this one.

END OF MARCH 3 PICKS

We’re still at 39-28 with our full game sides and have just three games on the schedule. I try not to look at the extra games too much until the conference tournaments, as there are plenty of other teams to try and keep track of over the course of the season. As we usually do, we’ll get the numbers posted and then come back and take a look at the games on the schedule.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

North Carolina State at Duke: Obviously a huge revenge game for Duke, who lost by 20 to NC State earlier this season, but the betting public has been on the Wolfpack, as the number opened Duke -13 and is now 12.5 with the road team getting close to two-thirds of the wagers. I have Duke winning this one by 15, so don’t want any part of NC State in this one. Duke is coming off a pair of losses and would lean to them if I had to play it, but will most likely stay away.

Texas Tech at Baylor: This one opened Baylor -7.5 and has stayed there with the Bears getting a little more than 60% of the wagers in the game. Baylor did win the first meeting of the year between the two in an ugly game that saw the Bears have a 44-25 rebounding advantage, but they made things close with 20 turnovers compared to 13 for the Red Raiders. Tough game to call, with both teams coming off losses, so will just stay away.

Idaho State at Weber State: Weber State won the first game between the two, coming back from a seven-point halftime deficit to take an 8-point victory and are favored by 6.5 in this one, which is basically right where I have it. Idaho State is 5-3 revenging a home loss this season and wouldn’t be surprised to see them keep this one relatively close, but no desire to wager on the game and will wait for better opportunities.

END OF MARCH 2 PICKS

No official plays here, as we moved to 39-28 with these plays on Saturday, one of the few bright spots in a disappointing 2-3 day overall. Want to get the numbers posted and up and will come back and we’ll look at a couple of the games.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Towson at Northeastern: Northeastern is now favored by 5 and my numbers have them winning by 3, but the home team looks to be getting a little sharp action, so will just stay clear of this one.

Michigan at Ohio State: The Buckeyes are favored by 3.5 and I have them winning by 4, so will stay away from this one, which is a revenge game for the Wolverines. Would probably give the slightest of leans to the road dog if I had to play this one.

Wichita State at SMU: The Mustangs have moved from -1 to -1.5 after getting two-thirds of the wagers in this one, while my numbers have Wichita State winning by 3. The stats are a little more comparable between the two teams, but the Mustangs are still being dinged a little bit by a soft non-conference schedule and they lose points in the AOPR category. If I really had to play the full game, would probably give a slight lean to Wichita State and this one should be a good one.

Colorado at Stanford: Stanford just hit -2 in this one and I have Colorado winning by a pair, but Stanford is another team that is still getting dinged a little bit due to their strength of schedule. I expect the Cardinal to come out strong here and the Buffs aren’t the greatest of road teams, but not going to go against the numbers here, when they have a four-point difference for the other team, so a pass.

Minnesota at Wisconsin: A little surprised to see Minnesota get some full-game action in this revenge game for the Badgers, but the line has moved from Wisconsin -6 to 5.5 and a few places have also dropped it all the way down to 5. My numbers have the Badgers winning by just four, so would give the slightest of leans to the away dog if I had to play this one.

END OF MARCH 1 PICKS

Waiting on first-half numbers to settle in a bit, so will get the numbers posted and then come back with plays, after we split our two college plays Friday night in what was an ugly 1-3 night in hoops overall. We stayed away from the full game sides, so still 38-28 with those plays.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

Fullerton at Northridge: Northridge opened as 5.5-point favorites and the line is down to 5 even though Northridge has been getting close to two-thirds of the wagers. I have the home team winning by 7, but no real interest in taking a stand in this one.

Santa Barbara at Irvine: The Anteaters opened as 6.5-point favorites and the line is now 7 with UCSB getting close to 55% of the wagers. Santa Barbara did win the first meeting between the two in early February, jumping out to an early lead and holding on thanks to a 25-8 advantage at the charity stripe. I have Irvine winning this one by 12 and will go ahead and take the revenge-minded home favorite in this spot.

Arizona at UCLA: The Wildcats are favored by 2.5 and the betting public is on the Bruins fairly good, as Arizona will be a little shorthanded for this one. When healthy, the Wildcats are about 10 points better on a neutral court, but a little hard to back Arizona in this spot.

Pacific at San Diego: Pacific is favored by 4 and my numbers have San Diego winning the game thanks to a huge edge in AOPR, but not so sure I want to back San Diego in this one. San Diego is outscored by 13.3 points in conference play and is going up against a team that is 10-5 in conference play. San Diego was waxed on the road by St. Mary’s and Gonzaga their past two games and have to worry how the team will respond to losing its last two games by a combined 64 points, so will just stay away from this one.

END OF FEB. 29 PICKS

We fell to 38-28 on the season after Riverside wilted a little bit in the second half and won’t have any plays today, just a couple of leans. But wanted to get the numbers posted and then will come back and look at a few of the games, which we frequently do when we have larger schedules.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Wright State at Northern Kentucky: This one is actually a pretty decent game, where Northern Kentucky is favored by 3.5 and the line has held steady despite the road dog getting close to 80% of the wagers this morning.  I have the home team winning by four, so we’re basically right there at the line and I’d lean that way if I absolutely had to play this one, but a little bit tough to lay points to a team that has a conference scoring margin of +10.5.

Penn at Yale: The Bulldogs are favored by 8.5 and I have them winning by 12, but a little hesitant to lay those types of points against a decent Penn team even though it is a revenge game for Yale. The line opened -9.5 and has dropped a full point even though Penn has just gotten 54% of the wagers, so not quite sure that justifies the move entirely, so somebody likes Penn a little bit. Much like the above game, if I really had to play this one would lean to the home team, but tomorrow is another day and there should be better opportunities.

Washington State at Washington: The public is all over the Cougars in this one and I’m on the opposite side, taking the ‘Dawgs in the first half, but not really anxious to have UW going for me in two wagers, although I believe that’s the correct side in this one. Washington has been a better first half team in conference play, where they outscore teams by 1.9 points but are being outscored by 1.7 points in the second half, which was enough to keep this one a lean and not a regular play. UW does have a trip to the two Arizona schools on tap, but when you’re in the middle of a huge slump and have a revenge game against your instate rivals, have to think the Huskies will be focused squarely on this one.

END OF FEB. 28 PICKS

We moved to 38-27 on the season last night and will have one play for Thursday in what is a bit of a tough card. A number of big favorites playing with revenge tonight, which always makes things interesting. Will get this up with our one play and then come back and look at a few of the other games on the slate, as well.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

UCSB at Riverside: Santa Barbara is favored by 1.5, although you can find 2 at some outlets, and I have Riverside winning by 4, so will take a shot on the home dog in this one. UCSB won the first meeting by a pair and think Riverside comes out hard in this one, especially after losing their last game at home. Santa Barbara doesn’t take a huge hit when they travel, scoring a couple of points less and allowing a couple of more, but Riverside scores 5.5 more points in their home games, while allowing 4.0 less, so will take Riverside in this one.

Pacific at Loyola Marymount: Another game where I have the slight home underdog winning outright, I couldn’t quite pull the trigger on the Lions here, although would play them if I absolutely had to make a pick in this one. Pacific won the first meeting by 12 in what was a bit of an ugly game for both teams. Unlike Riverside, who is at least a 15-14 team, Loyola is just 10-18 on the season and playing a team that has won 21 games, so think the line is a little too cheap, at least to make Loyola a regular play. Pacific is +1.7 in scoring margin of conference games, while Loyola is -7.5.

Arizona State at UCLA: The Bruins moved from -2.5 to -3 with less than 40% of the wagers and UCLA is playing well now. My numbers will keep off the Bruins, as I have this one even, but would probably lean to UCLA. ASU ran all over the Bruins in Tempe the last time they met and the Bruins have won their last five after that game, while the Sun Devils have won seven straight, but wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bruins get a little payback here.

Oregon State at Oregon: The Ducks opened -10 and the line is still there with the home team getting more than 60% of the wagers. The Beavers won the first meeting between the two, so Oregon looking to make amends here, but the lack of line movement is a little concerning for those who like the home team and I’ll just stay clear of this one.

END OF FEB. 27 PICKS

We’re in a holding pattern at 37-27 after passing the last few days, but will have one play today. As we sometimes do, we’ll get the numbers and the play out now and then come back and look at a few of the other games.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

LSU at Florida: The Gators opened at -3.5 and the line quickly jumped to Florida -5 even though LSU has gotten the majority of the wagers in the game. I also have the Gators winning by 5, but think this is a good spot for Florida and will go ahead and lay the points in this one. LSU knocked off Florida 84-82 earlier this season and did so because of rebounding, where the out-rebounded the Gators 38-28, but an even bigger factor was free throws. The Tigers attempted 31 and Florida went to the line 11 times. Omar Payne fouled out of the game and played just 22 minutes.

Maryland at Minnesota: Strange on here, as Minnesota opened as a 1-point favorite and the line hasn’t moved despite Maryland getting more than 80% of the wagers in the game. I have the Gophers winning by 3, so would give them a lean, but also have Minnesota going in the first half, so would lean towards them if I were going to play the full game, but think they offer a little better value in the first half.

Utah Valley at Cal Baptist: Cal Baptist won the first meeting between the two teams but Utah Valley is getting a little bit of respect in this one, as the line has held at Cal Baptist -6 despite the home team getting more than 70% of the early wagers. Tough game to call and don’t want to go against the numbers.

Boise at UNLV: The Rebels are favored by 3 and I have this one even, but no real interest in taking the Broncos in a revenge game for UNLV. The Rebels are in a decent situation regarding home favorites off a huge road win, as away underdogs of 12 or more points are 59-48-3 (55.1%) when a home favorite in their next game, but only 4-5 ATS this season. If the home team lost the previous meeting between the two teams the winning percentage increases to 24-18-1 (57.1%) but is 0-4 this season, so will just stay clear of this game.

END OF FEB. 26 PICKS

 

Running a little bit late, which happens on occasion with college hoops, as we’re stuck waiting for first half totals and lines, on occasion, so we’ll get our numbers for the day posted and follow back with plays. After passing last night, we’re still 37-27 with these plays for the season.

We’re seeing the sharps take a stand on some of the games and not really anxious to go against them, but not going to tail just for the sake of tailing, either, so we’ll look at a few games, but no official plays.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

Drake at Loyola: This one has come down a little bit to Loyola -7 and I have them winning by 9, so a little too close to the number for my liking, but would lean towards the home team if I really wanted to play this one.

Kansas State at Baylor: Another game, another big move against the Bears, although it could be justified this time, as Baylor is in a definite letdown spot. But Baylor got to where they’re at by being a good team and I have them winning by 16. Will be interesting to see how the Bears respond in this one.

Nevada at Wyoming: I touched on this one a little bit in the first half article, as this one opened at Nevada -10 and is down to 8.5 even though close to 80% of the wagers are coming in on Nevada. Unfortunately, I have Nevada winning this one by 9, so won’t take the Cowboys but would lean that way if I wanted to play it.

Memphis at SMU: SMU is getting hit hard this morning, as the line has moved from Mustangs -3 to -4.5 even though the Tigers are getting the majority of the wagers. A little leery about going against Memphis in a revenge spot, however, and will stay away from this one and not go straight on into the line move, as the numbers have Memphis winning, but Memphis has been pretty bad on the road this season, worse than they are getting credit for.

END OF FEB. 25 PICKS

We moved to 37-27 on the season with these plays on Sunday, but did drop both of our totals plays on our way to a 2-2 day. It’s tough having just four games on the schedule, and there’s no need to make plays just for the sole purpose of making plays or just because a game is on television. There are pretty good-sized slate of games the next few days and there will be better betting opportunities ahead.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

West Virginia at Texas: West Virginia opened -4 and is now favored by 5.5 even though the betting has become a little more balanced. Earlier in the morning, West Virginia was getting a large number of the wagers, but now it’s about 55% in favor of the Mountaineers. My overall numbers have West Virginia winning by 6, but not really eager to back the road team here and think the Longhorns might be the right side in this one. I’ll just stay away from this one.

Louisville at Florida State: The Seminoles are getting 70% of the wagers in this one and the line has held steady at FSU -2.5. I’d lean to the Cardinals, but the numbers have FSU winning by 4 and won’t go against them, so will just stay clear of this one. The teams both average 75.3 points per game, while Louisville is slightly better defensively, which is countered by FSU’s better play at home. A revenge game for Louisville.

Nebraska at Illinois: The Illini are favored by 13.5 in a game that has seen pretty mixed betting.  Both teams can score, but only Illinois can play defense, as the ‘Huskers allow 5.6 more points per game than their opponents score on average. Would probably lean to the home team if I had to play it, but not sure why anybody would, as there are better games on the schedule tonight.

Oklahoma State at Kansas: The Cowboys are getting a slight majority of the wagers here, as bettors are expecting a little bit of a letdown out of Kansas, which could very well happen, but Kansas has done a good job of playing right before and after other potential letdown spots this season and wouldn’t be surprised to see Kansas get the cover in this one.

END OF FEB. 24 PICKS

We moved to 36-27 for the season with our full game side plays on Saturday and not really the greatest of cards for Sunday, even though there are a fair number of games. There isn’t a whole lot in the way of sharp money appearing so far today, so we’ll take a look at a few of the games and have one play.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

Penn State at Indiana: The Hoosiers opened -1 and now Penn State is favored by 1 after getting more than 70% of the wagers in the game. I have this one even, so obviously too close to call. The Hoosiers are 13-3 at home, so wouldn’t be really eager to go against them in this spot, but Penn State gets a pretty big edge in conference scoring margin.

Wichita State at Cincinnati: The Bearcats have moved from -3.5 to -4 on 41% of the wagers in what is a revenge game for Wichita. I have the Bearcats winning by four, so no play in this one, but a little surprised to see Cincinnati getting a little bit of sharp action here, but nothing too terribly big.

South Dakota at South Dakota State: This could be one of the most entertaining games of the day, and South Dakota State opened -5.5 and the line has stayed there with a few places dropping it to 5 even though the home team is getting 75% of the wagers. Granted, there probably aren’t too many people actually wagering on this game, but a little surprised at the line movement, or rather lack of line movement, at most places in a revenge game for the home team.

USC at Utah: Southern Cal opened -1 and this one has bopped around a bit with the Trojans getting 60% of the wagers. I’ll call this one even, even though you can get the Utes +1 at a fair number of places, but think Utah gets the victory in this one, so we’ll go ahead and take Utah in this one. I had given some thought to taking Utah for the first half, but will ride them for the full game here. While it’s been a disappointing season for Utah, the Utes are still 10-2 at home and do have a score to settle with the Trojans for the 56-52 loss they suffered in Los Angeles last month. Obviously, both teams shot poorly, but the Utes hurt themselves by going 10 of 15 from the foul line, while Southern Cal, who only shoots 67.6% for the season was 14 for 16. If the teams shot their averages, the outcome is different. USC has Arizona on deck and the Utes are coming off a home loss, so like them to get the job done here.

END OF FEB. 23 PICKS

We passed here last night, so we remain at 35-27 for the season. It was a case of liking Canisius more as a first-half bet than a full-game wager, although they did cover both, so it all worked out for us in the end.

Today, we’re looking at all of the 9 p.m. and later games, which is pretty much our standard operating procedure, but I did tack on some of the bigger games on the games at the end of our regular chart, so am posting these now and then will come with our plays. But with the Baylor vs. Kansas game starting at noon, wanted to get these all up and posted.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Montana at Montana State: The Grizzlies are favored by 4 in this revenge game for the Bobcats, but Montana State’s best player, Harald Frey, is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, so no need to get involved with this one. Even if he goes, he may not be 100%, so just going to sit this one out.

Santa Clara at Pacific: Pacific is favored by 4.5 in this one and I have them winning by 5, but like the home team in this one in a revenge game. The big man for Santa Clara – Guglielmo Caruso – is listed as questionable and the 6-foot-11 forward is scoring 10.9 points and grabbing 5.1 rebounds per game. The line did move from -4 to -4.5, which I’m not thrilled with, but will still go ahead and take the home team in this one. Santa Clara has dominated the series recently and think this is a chance Pacific has to turn the tide in the series, so will go against Santa Clara one more time in this spot.

Gonzaga at BYU: One of the top games of the day, Gonzaga is favored by 4.5 and my numbers have BYU getting the victory, which I’m not entirely sure I agree with. This has all the makings of a great game, but we’ve all seen games that come nowhere close to living up to the hype. If I had to play, would lean to the dog, but not sure if I’ll get involved, but could have a first-half play going in this one.

Fresno at Nevada: Fresno State is getting hit in this one, as the line has moved from Nevada -8 down to 6.5 or 7 even though Nevada is getting 75% of the wagers. My numbers are calling for Nevada to win by 8 and won’t go against them, although the line movement is pretty interesting in this one.

END OF FEB. 22 PICKS

Fullerton wilted down the stretch and we ended up with a loss here on Thursday, as we fall to 35-27 on the season. Spent a little too much time looking at the games today and lost track of time, so am going to list all of the numbers and then come back for a look at the games and our plays. Sometimes when you spend too much time looking at games, you’ll end up talking yourself out of plays or find something that will keep you off a play, which is the case here, so no official plays and we’ll take a look at several of the games.

Road TeamHome TeamLineProjected Margin
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -2Marquette 1
Kent StateBall StateKent -.5Ball State 2
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -2West Virginia 4
MissouriTexas A&MMissouri -1.5Missouri 5
TempleSMUSMU -1.5SMU 2
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -6.5Memphis 10
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -7Irvine 7
Cal DavisHawaiiHawaii -1Hawaii 1
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyUTRGV -1Bakersfield 1

Yale at Cornell: Yale is getting 75% of the wagers in this one, but that hasn’t stopped the line from moving from Bulldogs -12.5 to Bulldogs -11.5. Cornell has been a pretty big disappointment this season, but they’re getting some respect here. Yale won by 15 three weeks ago and they’re laying a pretty big number in this one. Still, can’t pull the trigger on Cornell in this one.

Rider at Iona: Wanted to take Iona even in this revenge spot, but the Gaels are just 4-5 straight-up at home this season. Iona is playing better and has won four of five games, but a little hard to pull the trigger on this one, as Iona really doesn’t have much of a home court advantage.

Penn at Dartmouth: The whole world is on Penn in this one, as the Quakers opened -1.5 and have moved to -2 after getting close to 90% of the wagers. Dartmouth gave Penn a battle when the teams met three weeks ago, but would really like at least three points to play Dartmouth here. Still, if you like making anti-public plays, this one will probably grab your attention a little bit due to the lopsided number of wagers coming in.

Milwaukee at Oakland: Oakland is now favored by 4 in this one after being 3.5 earlier in the morning and they are one of those teams I nearly took, but was put off a little bit their conference scoring margin. Oakland isn’t all that impressive at home, but would lean to the home team if I had to play something tonight, but will instead just wait for the usual Saturday debacle when there are better games on the schedule.

END OF FEB. 21 PICKS

One play for tonight and it’s really just a case of following the numbers in the game. We had nothing official last night and are still 35-26 on the season. Not a whole lot in reverse line movement this morning, at least in the games we’re looking at.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Sacramento State at Eastern Washington: Slight move against my Eagles in this one, as the number has moved from 6.5 to 6 with EWU getting three-quarters of the wagers. The Eagles did win at Sacramento earlier this year, playing the Hornets’ style. The numbers say EWU but the last three games have all been decided by five or fewer points.

Santa Barbara at Fullerton: UCSB is favored by in a game that has seen pretty even betting and the line has held steady. I have Fullerton winning by a point, so will take the home dog in this one. The Gauchos have better numbers, but Fullerton has played a tougher schedule. Fullerton is coming off that four-overtime win against Cal Poly, but that was Saturday, so time to rest up and this is the lone game for Fullerton in a 12-day stretch, so they should be focused on this one. Despite allowing more points than UCSB, Fullerton is better in terms of field goal percentage allowed and in 3-point defense.

Grand Canyon at Seattle: The betting public is all over Grand Canyon, although I don’t necessarily see it. Grand Canyon won at home 80-77 and Seattle has a better conference scoring margin by a couple of points. Want no part of Grand Canyon here, but will most likely just stay away from the game.

San Francisco at Gonzaga: San Francisco is getting a little action in this one, as the line has dropped to 17 or 17.5 at most places even though the Zags are getting 70% of the wagers in the game. The Dons gave Gonzaga all they wanted and more in San Francisco, so I can see people thinking they may be able to stay within the generous spread here, but wouldn’t be a shock to see Gonzaga blow them out either, so definitely a tough game to call. I have the Zags about 12.5 better on a neutral floor, so the line may be a shade high, but betting against Gonzaga as a large home favorite isn’t the greatest idea, as the Zags are 24-15 ATS.

END OF FEB. 20 PICKS

We moved to 35-26 with our plays on Tuesday and now face a pretty tough slate of games for Wednesday, so no official plays for the day, but we’ll look over a few of the games, including several of the bigger ones that you’ll most likely be interested in.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

Kansas State at Texas Tech: This one opened at Red Raiders -12 and is now 11.5 with the home team getting a slight majority of the wagers. I have Texas Tech winning by 10, which is pretty close to the full game line. Texas Tech won the first meeting between the two on the road, so think the Wildcats may come out hard.

Miami at Virginia Tech: Things have come unraveled for Virginia Tech, who was favored by 4 at Miami just three weeks ago in a game the Hurricanes won by double digits. We’re pretty much right there at the number, but the Hokies need to get things turned around in a hurry.

Duke at N.C. State: North Carolina State getting a little bit of sharp action here, as the number has dropped from Duke -8 to 6.5 despite nearly three-quarters of the wagers on the Blue Devils. But I have Duke winning by 10, so not going to go against the numbers in this spot.

Indiana at Minnesota: Minnesota opened as 6.5-point favorites and the line has dipped to 5.5, as Indiana’s road woes are well-publicized. I have Minnesota covering this one, but the line is a little steep and at some point Indiana will become undervalued away from home. Not sure if it’s here or not, but a tough one to play.

Tulsa at Houston: The Cougars opened -10 and the line is up to 10.5 at most places even though the Hurricanes are getting the majority of the wagers. My numbers have Houston winning by 15, which was a bit of a surprise, but understandable. Another method I use does have Houston about 8.5 points better on a neutral court, so maybe the line is pretty close to where it should be, if not a shade low. Both teams are solid on defense, but Houston is a much-better offensive team. Still, it’s tough to go against a Tulsa team that is 9-4 ATS as an underdog this season and holds teams to 7.1 fewer points than they average. If I absolutely had to play this one I’d just follow the numbers with the Cougars, but giving double-digits to a team that plays defense like the Hurricanes can isn’t something I’m really eager to do and will stay away.

END OF FEB. 19 PICKS

We’re 34-26 with our full game sides and even though we looked at more games than normal, it’s a bit tough today, as you can make a case for several teams, but if you look long enough, you’ll usually find some sort of red flag. There are a few games the wise guys have made a bit of a stand on, so we’ll look at a few of the games on the slate and will have one play.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Akron at Western Michigan: The home dog has got a little respect in this one, as the line opened Akron -8.5 and is now down to 8 even though close to 65% of the wagers have come in on the road team. Can’t blame those liking the home dog here, as I have them staying within the number, as they’re looking to make amends for a 15-point road loss earlier this season at Akron.

St. Louis at UMass: St. Louis opened 3.5 and the line is down to 3 even though the road team is getting 63% of the wagers so far. I have St. Louis winning by just one, but the conference scoring margin of UMass is pretty scary, as they’ve been outscored by an average of 7.7 points, while St. Louis is +1.1 in conference games. Mass is a much better home team, however, and has played St. Louis tough in each of the last two games, losing both times by three points and those were both on the road. Going to take a shot on UMass +3 in this one.

Northwestern at Maryland: Northwestern is getting some decent action in this one, as the number has dropped all the way down to 13 from its opening of 15 and close to 65% of the wagers are on Maryland. I have the Terps by 16 and also have a play on the first-half line in this one, so will just clear of the full game wager in this spot.

Baylor at Oklahoma: This is one of those games where you really want to pull the trigger but have some reservations, as I have Baylor winning by 2 in what should be a pretty decent game. The Bears opened -3.5 and the line hasn’t moved off of that even though the road team is getting 80% of the early wagers. The Sooners are 11-1 at home, while the Bears have the same record on the road. Baylor did escape with a four point win at home against the Sooners, so even though they have the rematch with Kansas up next, think they’ll be ready to play this one, even though the Sooners are just 6-6 in conference games. Lean to the home team but not enough confidence in them to make a regular play and it’s one of those games where I may throw a few dollars on it just to watch while working on Wednesday’s games.

END OF FEB. 18 PICKS

 

 

We passed on Sunday’s card and will do the same on Monday, as we have just four regular games on the schedule. There are some extra games and we went 2-0 the one time we played those games, but after running the numbers for those games several other times, the results weren’t anything special. It’s not as though we don’t already have enough teams to try and keep track of.

A few weeks back we had another four game schedule and forced a few plays that went down the drain, so won’t be making that mistake again. We’ll look at each of the games and see if there isn’t something useful you can take with you.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

Xavier at St. Johns: Xavier is favored by 1.5 and we have this one even in what is a revenge game for the Red Storm. St. John’s will probably be without Mustapha Heron and his 13.8 points. While Heron is just shooting 38.5% for the season, he’s also shooting 38.5% from 3-point range, which helps keep the defense from loading up in the paint, so his absence will hurt. Xavier is a -2 in conference scoring margin, while St. John’s is -4.5 and both teams show the typical home and away differences, with Xavier scoring a few points less and allowing a few more, while St. John’s is the opposite. Could probably make an easier case for the home team, but with Heron out, no interest in this one.

North Carolina at Notre Dame: We’ve seen a little bit of a reverse move here, with the Irish opening -4 and the line has dropped to 3.5 with Notre Dame getting close to two-thirds of the wagers. The Tar Heels are ravaged by injuries, but are still playing hard and have lost two-point games to Virginia and Duke in their last three games. But mixed in there was also a 17-point road loss at Wake Forest, so not sure what to expect. The Irish are playing with revenge, but they were just drilled by 34 points at Duke. Notre Dame is 4-2 avenging a road loss this season. The Tar Heels are getting a little sharp action here.

Iowa State at Kansas: The Jayhawks won by 26 at Iowa State earlier this year and are now favored by 16, so this one might simply come down to effort and focus, which may not be easy for Kansas, as a rematch with Baylor is on deck Saturday. Even though the game is five days away, it’s impossible to Kansas not be aware of the Bears, who handed Kansas its lone home loss this season. The Cyclones won easily against Texas last time out but Tyrese Haliburton’s absence will hurt in this one.

Idaho at Portland State: The Vikings are favored by 11 in this one, which seems slightly on the high side, especially when you consider Idaho just went in to Cheney and knocked off Eastern Washington, while the Vikings lost at home to the Eagles. The Vandals are in a decent situation regarding away double-digit underdogs who just won as an away double-digit underdog, but hard to get excited about this one, especially with the numbers calling for a 12-point Portland State victory.

END OF FEB. 17 PICKS

We moved to 34-26 with our full-game sides on Saturday and today’s card really isn’t all that enticing, so no official plays, but we’ll look at some of the bigger games, which some of you will most likely want to play. I don’t want to put something out there for the sake of throwing something out there, especially when we have three plays going with our first-half bets.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Memphis at UConn: The Huskies are favored by 4 and I have them winning by three, but no sure they aren’t the right side in this one. The Huskies are playing with revenge and when you look at both teams, the Huskies probably have a larger home court advantage than I’m crediting them with, as 4.0 points is my standard, but Memphis has a scoring margin of -4.4 on the road and UConn is a +10.1 at home. Even though the Huskies are 4-7 in conference play, they do have a better scoring margin in conference games than Memphis, who is 6-5.

Missouri State at Indiana State: Missouri State is getting some sharp action here and it’s a little hard to figure out why, as Missouri State hasn’t been a very good road team and are just 1-3 ATS revenging a home loss this season. Jordan Barnes is listed as probable for Indiana State, but if his play suffers due to his finger injury, I can see Missouri State keeping it closer than expected.

San Diego State at Boise State: The Aztecs are favored by 5.5, although it looks as though this one will hit 6 by game time, and I have them winning by 5, so a little too close for comfort in a game I’d love to take Boise. The Aztecs thumped the Broncos at home earlier this year and Boise is 5-2 revenging a road loss and while San Diego State is 10-1 ATS on the road this season, Boise State is 10-2 against the number at home. The line hasn’t moved off of 5.5 yet, even though the road team is getting 75% of the wagers, but a few places have shifted the odds slightly to where SD State is laying -115.

Utah at Oregon: This is another one where the line is a little too close to the number for comfort, as Oregon is favored by 12.5 and I have them winning by 13. The Utes aren’t what they’ve been in the past, but are still a dangerous team to be giving that many points to in a series than has typically had close games. The Ducks won by five in Utah earlier this season in a game that Utah shot just 36.5% from the field and were just 65% from the foul line, which isn’t what you expect from a team that shoots 73.3% for the season. The Ducks are coming off a revenge win against Colorado, so this isn’t the best of spots for Oregon.

END OF FEB. 16 PICKS

Davidson made it look easy for us last night, as we moved to 33-26 with our full-game side plays and they’ve moved in front of the first-half sides as our best performing plays so far. Tonight’s card is a little tough from the perspective of this article, but will see what we can come up with.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

Cal Poly at Fullerton: Have seen this one come down to 6.5 at a few spots, as the Mustangs continue to get close to 60% of the wagers in this game between two bad teams. Cal Poly won 101-100 in the first meeting between the two and it’s unlikely either team will shoot 57% from the field as they did in that one. I like Cal Poly at home, but not real anxious to grab them on the road in this one.

Idaho State at Montana: Idaho State has lost nine straight, but they still come to play every game, which is really all you can ask for. They’ve lost their last four by a combined 14 points and are 6-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season. They are getting close to three-quarters of the wagers in this one, however, which you don’t really like to see. Montana just waxed Weber State by 35 and have covered four straight. Montana does have Montana State up next, but that one is a week away, so there’s shouldn’t be any signs of looking ahead. Will pass.

Missouri-Kansas City at Bakersfield: Bakersfield opened 4.5 in this one and the road team has received 65% of the wagers and the line has held steady. I have this one as a one-point game and am going to take a shot on the road team in this one. Bakersfield won the first game of the season, as UMKC was an ugly 6 of 25 from 3-point range and that’s one thing they tend to do well, as they’re shooting 36.5% for the season and Bakersfield is allowing 36.3%. Not really thrilled with UMKC getting the bulk of the wagers, but think they are the right side here.

Washington at UCLA: Gave a lot of thought to taking the Huskies +3 in this one, which I have even, but Washington has completely imploded, losing and not covering in seven straight. The Huskies are 2-10 in conference play, even though they’re only getting outscored by 1.2 points and actually have a better scoring margin than the Bruins, who are 7-5 in Pac-12 action. The Huskies may be saving it for the conference tournament, which is really their only chance of making the tournament now.

Irvine at Hawaii: Irvine is favored by 2.5 and I have them winning by 8, but not really anxious to take the Anteaters here. The trip may have taken something out of Irvine and Hawaii is 13-3 at home, with Irvine 7-9 away from home. Irvine won by 14 at home earlier this year and a tough game to call all-around.

END OF FEB. 15 PICKS

We were 2-2 in college basketball on Thursday, dropping the two totals plays and winning the two side plays, as we moved to 32-26 with our full-game side plays. Tonight’s schedule really isn’t much different than we’ve been seeing on Friday, although we don’t have the one or two big conference games that we’ve been seeing. We’ll look at all of the games on the card tonight, although in all honesty, it’s not really the greatest of cards from a handicapping perspective.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Columbia at Dartmouth: Dartmouth opened as 6-point favorites and the line is down slightly, with the Lions getting almost 65% of the wagers. I have Dartmouth winning by double-digits, but you are asking a team that’s 0-6 in Ivy League action to win by at least six points. Lean to the home team, but can’t say I’m eager to back them.

Yale at Princeton: Yale opened -4 and the line has stayed there with nearly 80% of the wagers on the road favorite. I have the road team winning by 9 but lack of line movement and the fact that the public is on Yale pretty heavy is a decent reason to stay clear of this one.

Fairfield at Marist: Marist opened -2.5 and have held there despite nearly two-thirds of the wagers on the road team. I have Fairfield winning this one outright, but want no part of a public team in this one. Marist and Fairfield are both 5-7 in conference play and Marist has a better scoring margin, so a pass in this one.

Davidson at St. Bonaventure: St. Bonaventure opened -4 and the line has held steady with the betting being somewhat even in this one, just a slight majority of the wagers on the home team. I have this one a one-point game and will take a shot on Davidson +4, knowing they’ve been pretty poor as a road underdog this season against the spread, but they do have a better conference scoring margin than St. Bonnies and this is a game they need badly.

Denver at South Dakota State: Denver is getting some action in this one, as the line has moved from SD State -16 down to -14, but is climbing back up to 14.5 or 15 at some places. The betting is pretty much split down the middle and I have this one pretty close to the number, so will just stay clear of this one.

END OF FEB. 14 PICKS

No action last night, so we’re still 31-26 with these plays for the season and we’ll have one play for tonight and we’ll get to it and then come back in a bit and fill in some of the blanks and give a few notes on some of the other games.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

Santa Barbara at UC Davis: The Gauchos opened -2 and the line has climbed to UCSB -3 with the road team getting more than 75% of the wagers. The teams haven’t played this year and the two are pretty comparable when look at the numbers in tonight’s location, so will take a shot on the home dog in this one, as I have them winning outright, so will take UC Davis +3 for tonight’s play.

Portland at Pacific: Pacific is favored by 12 in this one and I only have them winning by 9, but Portland is one of those teams I can’t really get a feel for. They’re carried by their ‘Big 3’ and they were missing one of their key cogs for a while, but are still struggling. They lost to Pacific by 10 at home already this season and would want no part of them in this one.

Chicago State at Bakersfield: This is another game where there’s a pretty big difference between the number and my projection, but it’s much like the first half side play, where I’m not really eager to have more than one wager tied into Chicago State, even if it’s going against them. They may surprise at some point and play respectable, but they’re ranked the worst Division I team for a reason.

Arizona at California: The Wildcats are favored by 10 and I have them winning by 14, but the Bears are capable of playing pretty well at home from time to time, so another one I’m not really wanting to put money on. California did knock off Oregon State and Stanford as home underdogs already this season and while Arizona is better than those two teams, it’s still asking a lot to get a double-digit victory especially when the Wildcats have a bigger game against Stanford on tap and not sure how they’ll respond to the thumping they received at the hands of UCLA last time out.

END OF FEB. 13 PICKS

We moved to 31-26 last night with this one, as San Diego State came out to play in the second half and won going away. Thought I might actually be done a little early today, but Windows had different ideas and decided it was time for some updates, so we’ll look at at a couple of the game here. No official play, but a couple of leans for tonight.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Michigan at Northwestern: The Wolverines opened 6.5 and we’re seeing the line start to drop in this one, as Michigan is down to 5.5 even though they’ve gotten more than 60% of the wagers in the game. I’d lean to the home team, but also have Michigan winning by 8, so will just stay away from this one.

Iowa State at Oklahoma: This line move was due to the loss of Haliburton and it’s hard to predict how much of an impact his loss will have on the team. It’s best to wait and see how Iowa State responds to the loss of their best player before automatically going against them in this spot.

Clemson at Pittsburgh: The Panthers opened -3 and the line has finally inched up to 3.5 after the Panthers have received more than 80% of the early wagers. The Tigers do get a strength of schedule advantage in this one, which is one reason I have the Panthers winning this one by 3 points, as they have more impressive stats than Clemson. The Tigers have won the last few meetings between the two teams and lean to the road team but can’t pull the trigger.

Houston at USF: The Bulls are starting to get some money in this one, as Houston has moved from -6.5 to 5.5-point favorites and are getting three-quarters of the wagers in the game. I have the Cougars winning by nine, but no interest in going against the line move.

Fresno State at San Jose: The Bulldogs opened as 6-point favorites in this one and San Jose State has received more than 70% of the wagers, but the line has climbed to 6.5. I have this one a 6-point game, but don’t want anything to do with San Jose State in this spot and you have to respect the line movement in this spot and would play the road team if I had to play this one.

Nevada at UNLV: The Rebs have moved to 1.5 point favorites and think this is a decent spot for them. The Numbers have it even, but if I had to play, would give a look at the home team in this one in a revenge situation.

END OF FEB. 12 PICKS

The Longhorns had a shot all the way to the end, but couldn’t quite get there as we fall to 30-26 with our full-game side plays. A few more games on the schedule tonight, so hopefully we can get back on the right side of things.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

North Carolina at Wake Forest: This is one of those games where I’d like to take Wake Forest, but having a tough time pulling the trigger. The name “North Carolina” is automatically going to give the other team a point or so on the spread and not really sure the Tar Heels deserve to be the favorite in this one. Carolina does have a better conference scoring margin than Wake Forest, so while I lean to the home team it’s a game that I’ll probably stay away from.

Utah State at Colorado State: This one is almost a carbon copy of the game directly above, as I like the small home underdog, but more than likely won’t be able to pull the trigger. This should be a pretty solid game and while Utah State has the better overall record, Colorado State has a slight lead in the conference standings and this is a revenge game for the Rams, so a strong lean to the home team, but that’s about it in this one.

New Mexico at San Diego State: The Aztecs are favored by 15.5 and I have them winning by 24, so going to go ahead and take the home team in this one even though I typically don’t like laying this many points. San Diego State defeated the Lobos by 28 points on the road a few weeks ago and this would normally be a spot where you’d look to take the road dog, but the Aztecs are showing no sign of letting up against anybody, as they aim to keep their undefeated streak alive. The Lobos have a road scoring margin of -9, while San Diego State is a +17.8. It won’t be an easy one, but think San Diego State can get there and cover the number.

END OF FEB. 11 PICKS

Just four college basketball games for Monday, so we’ll be able to look at each one in a bit more detail that normal. Strange day on Sunday, as we dropped the two college totals right out of the gate, but did win the other two college hoops plays for a split in college basketball. We’re 30-25 with our full-game college side plays.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Florida State at Duke: Decent game here, as Duke opened -8.5 and the line is down to 8, as more than 80% of the early wagers have come in on the Seminoles, which is a bit of a surprise. The Blue Devils won both games last year, pulling away in the second half of the conference tournament game and escaping Tallahassee with a two-point win when they met in the regular season contest.

The Seminoles score about eight fewer points on the road than they do overall, while holding foes to .6 fewer points when they’re the visitors. The Blue Devils only score 1.1 more points in their home games, while holding foes to 5.0 fewer points when they’re the home team.

The Blue Devils are coming off a big win over North Carolina and could be ripe for a letdown, which is one reason why the bets are coming in on FSU.

Portland State at Northern Colorado: The Vikings are getting a little action in this one, as the line opened 10.5 and has dropped down to 9. The move occurred when Northern Colorado was getting 65% of the wagers, but since then a few people have piled on PSU and the betting is pretty even in the game.

The Vikings won the first meeting between the two, hitting 5 of 9 from 3-point range and 50.8% from the field, while Northern Colorado was just 5 of 23 from 3-point range.

Baylor at Texas: Baylor opened as 6.5-point favorites and the line is down to 5.5 with the Bears getting three-quarters of the early wagers in the game. Baylor won at home earlier this year 59-44 in a game that saw both teams stink from the field. Texas also stunk it up from the foul line, going 5 of 15 from the charity stripe.

Baylor has killed the Longhorns on the glass the past two games they’ve played, both of which were victories, and the Longhorns have to do a better job here. Going to take a shot on Texas +5.5 in this one, as I think they’re make this one a game.

TCU at Texas Tech: Texas Tech opened -11 and this one is now 10 on pretty even betting. The Horned Frogs won by 11 at home and the margin could have been bigger had TCU hit more than 52.4% of their foul shots, although they’re not a good free throw shooting team to begin with.

END OF FEB. 10 PICKS

We won here yesterday with Cal Poly, who got the outright win over Hawaii, but needed overtime after piddling away a decent lead in the second half. We’re now 29-25 with these plays and have quite a few games for a Sunday. Ran the numbers for all of the games and we’ll look at a few of them in more detail.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

Evansville at Bradley: Bradley opened as 12.5-point favorites and the line went to 13, but has since dropped back down. Elijah Childs is listed as questionable for Bradley and he scores 14 points and pulls down 9 rebounds per game, so that would be a big loss. Bradley won at Evansville by 20 points last month and the Braves are coming off a pair of road losses. with a revenge game against Indiana State on deck, not really a great spot for Bradley, especially with Childs not 100%.

Iona at Fairfield: Fairfield opened -4 and the line is down to 2.5 even though the home team has received more than 60% of the wagers. Iona won by seven points at home earlier this season. Huge disparity in the team’s ATS records to date, with Iona just 4-13 and Fairfield sitting at 14-8.

Manhattan at Quinnipac: Quinnipac opened -2 and the line dropped to 1.5 even though the home team is getting three-quarters of the wagers in the game. Manhattan won by 12 points at home in a game where both teams shot less than 40% from the field. Both teams are at 6-5 in conference play, but Manhattan has a scoring margin of +3.2 in conference, while Quinnipac is -.9.

George Mason at UMass: UMass opened -1 and the line is now 1.5 with the home team getting 63% of the wagers in the game. I have UMass winning by 7, as they’ve played a tougher schedule and both teams are pretty bad in conference play, with George Mason 2-7 and the Minutemen 3-7. George Mason does get the edge in conference scoring margin, but UMass is a much better home team, so can see the logic behind the line move and the bets coming in on the home team. Will take a shot UMass -1.5 in a revenge game here.

Northwestern at Rutgers: Rutgers opened -11 and is still there with a few places moving the number to 10.5 even though the Scarlet Knights are getting 70% of the wagers. Tough spot for Rutgers, coming off a close loss at Maryland and having Ohio State on deck. Throw in the status of Jacob Young, and one to stay away from.

Penn at Cornell: This was the game I had chose Friday and Penn is again favored by Cornell. I expected Cornell to play a better game and they did that Saturday, getting the win over Princeton, but not sure I trust the Big Red to play decent back-to-back games. Still lean that way, but will pass in this spot.

END OF FEB. 9 PICKS

 

Last night’s game was postponed, so we’re still 28-25 with these plays. As I’m running late, going to post our one play now and then will come back in a few minutes and we’ll look at some of the other games on the schedule.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

UCLA at Arizona: The wildcats have moved from -12 to -12.5 in this one with the betting being pretty well split down the middle, but more than a few bettors are probably upset with the Wildcats, who allowed the Trojans to get the cover in the second half of their game a couple of nights ago. I have Arizona rolling to the win in this one, but not really wanting to have the same game accounting for three separate wagers, so decided to stay clear of this one.

Hawaii at Cal Poly: Hawaii typically doesn’t travel very well, as it’s a long haul for them and now they have to play a Cal Poly team that is struggling this season, but Cal Poly has played tougher teams than Hawaii and gets a decent strength of schedule advantage. We used the Mustangs a few nights ago and we’ll come back with Cal Poly +5.5 in this one.

Gonzaga at St. Mary’s: We’ve looked at this game in the other two articles, so might as well take a quick look from a full-game perspective and my numbers have this one pretty close, with the Bulldogs winning by just two. St. Mary’s is getting some action in the betting, as the line has moved to 5.5 with Gonzaga getting 70% of the wagers, although it looks like it’s moving back to 6 at more places than not. Gonzaga doesn’t have too many revenge situations, so not really sure what to expect from them in this spot.

Oregon at Oregon State: The Beavers are getting some play in this one, as the Ducks opened -3.5 and the line has dropped to 3 even though the road team is getting two-thirds of the wagers. I have Oregon winning by 7 and the Ducks have played the tougher schedule, but the betting and the line move will keep me away from this one and I’ll just sit the game out and see how things play out.

END OF FEB. 8 PICKS

Won with this one last night to help make up for Wednesday’s debacle, so we’re 28-25 with these plays heading into Friday’s assortment of East Coast games, along with a few games featuring teams from the bigger conferences.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
MarquetteSeton HallSeton Hall -3.5Seton Hall 76-74
Kent StateBall StateKent State -1Even 68-68
West VirginiaOklahomaWest Virginia -3.5West Virginia 66-63
MissouriTexas A & MMissouri -2.5Missouri 63-58
TempleSMUSMU -3Temple 69-67
East CarolinaMemphisMemphis -11Memphis 77-60
Long BeachIrvineIrvine -12.5Irvine 76-65
Cal Davis HawaiiHawaii -2Cal Davis 71-68
BakersfieldRio Grande ValleyRio Grande Valley -2UTRGV 70-68

Harvard at Yale: Yale opened -6.5 and the line is down to 5.5 with Yale getting close to 70% of the wagers in the game for this 5 p.m. start. Even though I have Yale winning by double-digits, going to stay away from this one, as there are a couple of red flags here, including the line move.

Princeton at Cornell: Princeton opened as 5.5-point favorites and the line has dropped to 5 even though Princeton is getting 60% of the wagers. I have Cornell winning this one by a pair and will take the Big Red +5 in this one. Cornell is just 4-13 on the season, but they are 4-2 at home, although the wins did come against some weaker foes and they also have a couple of bad losses. Still, this is the type of game Cornell should be up for and we don’t need them to win this one, just keep it close.

Maryland at Illinois: The Illini are favored by 3 and I have them winning by 1, so this one will be a pass for me, but we’ll look at it a little closer, as this is probably the one game most people are interested in tonight. Maryland is not a very good shooting team and they’re also a better second-half team, at least that’s been the case this season. Maryland scores 32.5 points in the first half and 39 points in the second half of games, while allowing 30 points in the first half and 31.7 in the second half. Illinois is a little different in that they have a scoring margin of +6 in the first half and +4 in the second half.

The Terps have done most of their damage at home, where they’ve gone 13-0 and are just 5-4 away from home and have a score margin of just +1.8. Illinois is 12-1 at home and outscores foes by 18.7 points. The teams have played several common opponents in the same location and you’d have to give the edge to Illinois; as Maryland lost by 18 at Iowa, while Illinois lost by 7; Maryland lost by 2 at Wisconsin, while Illinois won by a point; Maryland defeated Purdue by 7 at home, while Illinois won by 26 and Maryland has a 5-point win over Rutgers, while Illinois won by just three. Still, my numbers are calling for a one-point game and won’t go against them, but don’t think I’d be able to play Maryland in this spot.

END OF FEB. 7 PICKS

Completely botched this one last night, talking myself out of Oklahoma State and taking Bradley instead, wit the Braves’ first-half scoring drought costing us both this one and the total, as we fall to 27-25. A couple of decent games on tap, but probably not the greatest night from a handicapping perspective.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

USC at Arizona: The Wildcats opened 10 and have stayed there even though the Trojans are getting close to 70% of the wagers in the game. I have Arizona rolling to the victory, but also have UA in the first half, so will lean with them for the full game, but won’t use them in this article.

Sacramento State at Weber State: Sacramento State getting some play here, as Weber opened -3 and the line is now down to 1.5 at the majority of places even though the home team is getting a slight majority of the wagers. I have Weber winning by 7, but will just sit this one out.

Eastern Washington at Montana: Montana completely waxed my Eagles in Cheney, Wash., last month in a complete blowout, so obviously a big revenge game for Eastern, who has surprised me with their play on the road in Big Sky Conference action. Montana just moved back to 3 and the betting is now pretty close to even. Won’t use EWU here, as it’s always a case of being a little biased towards my old school.

Santa Clara at Pepperdine: The betting percentages in this one have been a bit of a surprise, as 12-11 Pepperdine is getting 65% of the money against 18-6 Santa Clara and the line has moved from Pepperdine -1.5 to -2.5. Santa Clara has played a friendly schedule so far, both in terms of home games and against softer competition. I have Pepperdine winning by 7 due to AOPR and will take a shot on the Waves -2.5 in this one.

Stanford at Utah: The Utes are getting some action in this one, but as we’ve seen this season, that doesn’t always translate to wins and following the moves are probably close to 50-50 after you account for getting the short end of the odds. Stanford opened -1.5 and the Utes just hit -1.5 at most places with the betting being pretty much split down the middle. Would lean to Utah, as I have them winning by four, but in no rush to go out and bet the game and will most likely pass on this one.

END OF FEB. 6 PICKS

We fell to 27-24 with our full game side plays on Tuesday, as Mississippi State had some chances, but the Wildcats were money from the foul line and we came up a couple of points short on a night where the close ones went against us. We’ll look at a couple of the games where we have some differences between our number and the line.

North Dakota State at Omaha: Omaha let us down a couple of days ago, committing a foul with six seconds left in the game and saw a one-point lead turn into a one-point loss and they’re getting bet a little bit in this one, as the line has come down a little bit even though the road team is getting two-thirds of the wagers.

Northern Iowa at Valparaiso: The home team is getting the action this morning, as Northern Iowa opened 4.5 and we’re no seeing primarily 3s out there on the game even though Northern Iowa is getting 70% of the wagers in the game so far.

TCU at Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State opened as 3-point favorites and the line is still there even though the Horned Frogs are getting two-thirds of the wagers. I have Oklahoma State winning by 6 and would really like to take the Cowboys here, but hard to take a team that is 0-8 in conference play as a 3-point favorite.

Bradley at Drake: Drake is getting hit hard in this one, as the game opened even and more than 80% of the wagers have come in on the home team, pushing the line all the way to 3.5. I have this one even and was going to stay away, but the latest move from Drake -2.5 to Drake -3.5 is too much for me to be able to stay away from and will go ahead and take Bradley +3.5 in this game, which should be a decent one between a pair of good, but not necessarily great, teams.

Riverside at Fullerton: Strange one here, as Riverside opened -1 and then we saw Fullerton become the favorite and the line has switched back to seeing Riverside -1, although a few places have moved the game to Riverside -1.5 now. I have Fullerton winning but this one is flat-out ugly and will just stay away from the game.

END OF FEB. 5 PICKS

We moved to 27-23 with these plays for the season on Monday, but it was an forgettable day overall, where not much went right, so onto Tuesday’s slate of games, where we’ll look at the 9 p.m. games and later starts in college basketball, which is pretty much our standard in college basketball.

A few decent games on the slate tonight.

 

Oklahoma at Texas Tech: The Red Raiders opened 7.5 and the line has jumped up to Texas Tech -9 even though it’s the Sooners who are getting close to 75% of the wagers in the game. I have Texas Tech winning this one by five points, so not sure that I agree with the line move. The Red Raiders shoot a little better than the Sooners, but Oklahoma slightly better on offense. Lean towards the Sooners but that may be it in this one.

Xavier at DePaul: DePaul opened as slight favorites and Xavier became the favorites in the overnight betting, but the line has moved back to having the home team as the favorite in this one. Should be a decent game, but have no real interest in jumping into this one.

Colorado State at Fresno State: Colorado State opened as 2.5-point favorites and Fresno was favored early this morning, but this is now another game that has swapped favorites and we’re now seeing Colorado State as 1-point chalk at the majority of outlets. I have Fresno coming away with the win and lean that way, but another case of possibly just passing on this one altogether.

Mississippi State at Kentucky: The wildcats opened -5.5 in this one and have received a little more than 60% of the wagers, which caused the line to jump up to 6.5, but it has since come back slightly to 6. Mississippi State has the talent to play with Kentucky but they do have to overcome the stigma of getting the job done in Kentucky, which isn’t always easy. They lost by 21 points here last year and then lost at home by four. Think the Bulldogs can keep this one close and going to take a shot on the road dog here and grab Mississippi State plus the 6.

Missouri at Texas A & M: Not sure I agree with the numbers here, as Missouri is just 2-6 in conference play and Texas A & M is 4-4. The Aggies did go into Missouri last month and pull the upset as 10-point underdogs, so the Tigers get the nod for revenge, but that’s about it and I’ll just stay clear of this one.

END OF FEB. 4 PICKS

Just five regular college basketball games on the schedule for this Monday night, so we’ll take a look at each game, as we’ve hit a bit of a slump in college hoops the past two days. Sometimes, a small schedule helps a little bit, as you can dig into each game slightly more and look at a few angles you may otherwise not look at.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Boston CollegeNotre Dame65.563
CaliforniaStanford60.554
NebraskaIndiana6872
St. John'sGeorgetown7175
DePaulXavier62.564
ManhattanSiena5961
Iowa StateOklahoma State66.564
Kansas StateTCU58.557
GeorgiaMississippi6870
VanderbiltArkansas6967

North Carolina at Florida State: North Carolina got the majority of the overnight wagers, but now the Seminoles are getting the majority of the bets, with roughly 57% of the wagers on FSU. The number is pretty steep, but appears to be justified, as I have FSU winning by 13. Tough one to get a read on and will pass.

Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona: Much like the game above, it was EWU who received the majority of the wagers overnight, but now the Lumberjacks are getting the slightest of majorities of the wagers and the line has moved to NAU -1.5, with several places having the line at 2. Not sure if the percentage of the wagers on NAU constitute a full one-point movement. I have Eastern Washington winning by a point, but will just stay clear.

Baylor at Kansas State: Baylor opened -7 in this one and the Bears have gotten a huge majority of the wagers and the line is still holding at 7. Baylor is 9-1 straight-up and against the spread on the road so far this season, but it looks like the line has caught up with them a little bit. Kansas State is 8-3 at home and the Wildcats won both meetings last year, so a revenge game for the Bears, but that will also serve as a confidence boost for Kansas State and think they keep this one close, so will take KSU +7 here.

Texas at Kansas: Kansas opened -15 and the line was bet down to 14.5 with Texas getting an overwhelming percentage of the wagers in the game. I’d likely play the home team if I absolutely had to play the game, as I have them rolling to the win, but will stay away from this one.

Idaho at Sacramento State: Sacramento State has moved from -10.5 to -11 with the betting being pretty even in the game. You have to question if Sacramento State can score enough to cover a double-digit spread, but they did win by 21 points here last year.

END OF FEB. 3 PICKS

Back-to-back crappy plays with our full-game side plays has us down to 25-22 for the season, as Portland just put in a dismal effort on Saturday in a spot I thought they’d at least put up a fight instead of completely folding early in the second half.

A couple of games have seen moves since we updated the chart and the sharps are making a couple of stands on today’s college basketball games, but as we saw on Friday night, that doesn’t always translate to winning tickets.

Miami at Pittsburgh: The Panthers opened as 7-point favorites and the betting has been pretty even on this one, but Pitt has hit 7.5 at a couple of shops, while several that have kept it at are now asking you to lay -115 with the home team.

South Dakota at Omaha: This one opened even and South Dakota has received 55% of the wagers, while Omaha has become the small favorite. I’ll go ahead and follow the slight reverse line move and take a shot on Omaha in this one, as I have them winning by 5. South Dakota is just 4-6 on the road this season, while Omaha has won all 10 games in front of the home fans. South Dakota is 6-3 in conference play, while Omaha has gone 5-2 so far.

Quinnipac at Niagara: This could be one of those situations where the lack of line movement is as telling as a line move, as Quinnipac opened -2.5 and the line has held there despite the road team garnering more than 80% of the wagers so far. I lean to the home team here, but unlikely to pull the trigger, but wouldn’t want any part of the road favorite in this spot.

Wright State at Green Bay: This is another game where the lack of line movement stands out more than a line move, as Wright State opened -5 and the line is still there despite the road team getting more than 80% of the wagers in the game. Green Bay is 6-4 at home this season and gave Wright State a decent game on the road earlier this season, losing by six as 11-point underdogs. I have Green Bay winning by a pair so will go ahead and take a shot on the home underdog in this spot.

END OF FEB. 2 PICKS

 

Threw in a clunker here on Friday night, as our record drops to 25-21 with our full-game side plays. The positive was that we won our other three college basketball plays and split in the NBA for an overall 4-2 day.

As usual, we’ll focus on the late games for Saturday, beginning with the 9 p.m. EST games, so we are looking at a few more games than usual. As promised, we’ll begin with our tables in college basketball today, and then look at fewer games in the write-ups, but will be able to go into those we do look at in a little more detail.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection
Boston CollegeNotre DameNotre Dame -9Notre Dame 72-65
CaliforniaStanfordStanford -9.5Stanford 67-58
NebraskaIndianaIndiana -14.5Indiana 78-67
St. John'sGeorgetownSt. John's -3.5Georgetown 78-76
DePaulXavierXavier -6.5Xavier 71-68
ManhattanSienaSiena -6.5Siena 67-60
Iowa StateOklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State 69-68
Kansas StateTCUTCU -1.5Even 60-60
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi -3Georgia 74-73
VanderbiltArkansasArkansas -9Arkansas 81-70

Weber State at Northern Colorado: The projection here is just about right on the number, as Northern Colorado is favored by 9.5 and we have them winning by 9. The stats favor Northern Colorado a little more than the projection, but Weber State is one of four teams in the games we’re looking at that gets a solid advantage in strength of schedule. I’d normally look to Weber here, but they are getting outscored by more than 11 points on the road, while Northern Colorado is a +22.3 in their home games.

San Diego at Pacific: San Diego is another team we give a pretty large AOPR advantage to, which is why the predicted margin is just six points and the line has Pacific by nine points. San Diego is one of the rare teams that doesn’t drop-off on the road, as they’re scoring averages are actually a little better away from home. Pacific doesn’t show a big improvement at home, so can make a case for San Diego here, but awfully tough to pull the trigger on a team that’s on a 1-7 run straight-up and against the spread, especially with just a three-point difference between our projection and the spread.

Santa Clara at Portland: Portland is the third our our four teams to have a decided edge in strength of schedule, as those tend to average out a little bit as conference play goes on and teams are playing the same foes. The difference in this one is pretty pronounced, however, and will go ahead and take Portland +6 in this one. While Santa Clara is 17-6 overall, they are just 2-4 on the road and thanks to the Gonzaga game where they lost by 50, show a -17.1 scoring margin away from home, which is a bit misleading. Portland is another team that’s in a bit of a slide, going 1-10 straight-up and 3-8 ATS over their last 11, but with an 8-point difference in our number and the line and Santa Clara coming off the rematch with Gonzaga, will take a shot on the Pilots +6 in this one.

St. Mary’s at BYU: The Cougars are the fourth and final team with a decent AOPR edge, which is why we have them winning by 12 and the line is Cougars -6. Still, that’s a good-sized number to be giving a decent team even though it is a revenge game for BYU, who lost in overtime at St. Mary’s earlier this season.

END OF FEB. 1 PICKS

A 1-2 day in college basketball on Thursday, so will look to rebound on Friday, where we have a decent-sized slate of games, but nothing that spectacular. The past few Friday nights we’ve at least had a couple of decent contest, but the VCU at Rhode Island game is probably the best of the bunch tonight. We’re 25-20 with our full-game side plays.

We’ll start using our tables for predictions on Saturday, as I went ahead and ran all the numbers for tonight’s games instead of building those templates, which I’ll do this afternoon.

Harvard at Penn: Not a bad game here, as Penn is favored by 1 and I have them winning 75-72, so pretty close to the number. Harvard on a 20-4 ATS run as an underdog, however, while Penn is getting some sharp action.

Akron at Kent: Kent opened -2.5 and the line is down to 2 with Akron getting more than 60% of the wagers and I have Kent winning 76-73.

Bowling Green at Buffalo: Buffalo opened -5 and the line is down to 4.5 even though the home team has received 70% of the wagers. I have Buffalo winning 84-77.

Columbia at Yale: Columbia getting some action here, as Yale moved from -17 to -14 after getting 59% of the early wagers. I have Yale winning easily, 81-53, but have to respect the line movement in this one and a pass.

Sienna at Iona: More of the same here, as the game went from even to Iona-1 after Sienna received nearly 60% of the early wagers. I have Sienna winning 76-71 but no action in this one.

Dartmouth at Princeton: Princeton moved from -5 to -5.5 after getting 55% of the wagers. I have the Tigers winning 70-65.

Marist at Niagara: Niagara has held at -6 in a game that has seen pretty even betting and I have them winning 71-56 so will take a shot on Niagara -6 in this spot.

Fairfield at Rider: Rider opened -6.5 and the line has held steady with 55% of the wagers on the home team. I have Rider winning 67-60.

Manhattan at St. Peter’s: Ugly one here, as St. Peter’s moved from -4 to -3.5 after getting 65% of the wagers. I have St. Pete’s winning 61-56.

Cornell at Brown: Big move here, as Brown has moved from -10 to -7.5 with Cornell getting 70% of the wagers. I have Brown winning 69-64.

Quinnipac at Canisius: Canisius opened -5 and the line is down to 4.5 with the road team getting 55% of the wagers. I have Canisius winning 75-64.

VCU at Rhode Island: This one saw Rhode Island opened -1 and now VCU is favored by 1 after getting just 20% of the early wagers. I have Rhode Island winning 70-66 but no interest in bucking the move.

Northern Kentucky at Green Bay: Northern Kentucky moved from -3 to -2.5 with a slight majority of the wagers. I have Green Bay winning 81-80.

Wright State at Milwaukee: Wright has moved from -7 to -5.5 after getting two-thirds of the wagers. I have Wright winning 80-76.

Oakland at Detroit: Detroit has moved from -3 to -2 after getting 75% of the wagers and I have Detroit winning 69-68.

END OF JAN. 31 PICKS

We split our two college full-game sides as part of a 4-2 night in college hoops and 6-2 overall. Decent-sized slate of games for Thursday and we’ll look at the late games on the schedule, as usual. We’re now 24-20 with these plays for the season.

In the next day or two we’ll start presenting the games in a different manner, which I think you’ll like and get a little more out of.

UCSB at Northridge: A quick revenge game for the Gauchos, who lost last week as 8.5-point favorites. UCSB has moved from -1 to -1.5 and I have Northridge winning by a 78-72 score, but will stay away from this one due to last week’s result.

San Francisco at San Diego: The Dons opened -5.5 and the line has just now hit 6 with the road team getting more than 80% of the wagers so far. I have San Francisco winning 75-70.

Portland at St. Mary’s: St. Mary’s opened -19.5 and the number has held steady with 75% of the wagers on St. Mary’s, who I have winning 79-59.

Irvine at UC Davis: Irvine has moved from -4 to -4.5 in the early morning hours and I have Irvine winning this one 72-68.

Fullerton at Cal Poly: Fullerton opened -1.5 in this one and the line is all the way up to Fullerton -3, while I have Cal Poly winning 66-62. Cal Poly is 4-3 at home and 0-12 away this season, so going to take a stab on the home underdog in this one and take the Mustangs +3.

Loyola Marymount at Pacific: Pacific opened -6.5 and the line is still there with the Tigers getting more than 75% of the wagers in the game. I have Pacific winning this one 67-62.

Long Beach at Riverside: Riverside has moved from -8 to -7 and my numbers agree with the move, as I have Riverside winning 68-63.

Montana at Portland State: Decent game here, as the game opened even and now the Vikings are -1 at more places than not with the betting being split down the middle. I have Portland State winning 76-72, but the Grizzlies are 7-2 in conference play, while PSU is just 4-6. Montana won at home 85-70 several weeks ago, as Portland State was 0 for 11 on 3-pointers.

Gonzaga at Santa Clara: The Zags opened -15.5 and are now 16.5 after getting 70% of the wagers. I have Gonzaga winning 90-71.

Colorado at UCLA: Colorado opened -5 and the line is still there with more than 80% of the wagers on the Buffs. A few places have dropped it to 4.5, but as we saw last night with Iowa State, the smart money against a top team doesn’t always come through. I have Colorado winning 69-62.

Oregon State at Stanford: Stanford opened -8.5 and the line is down to 6.5 with the Cardinal getting the majority of wagers. I have Stanford winning 70-62.

END OF JAN. 30 PICKS

 

Got a little too cute with a few plays on Tuesday and paid for it with an overall 2-3 night, splitting the two NBA games and going 1-2 in the colleges after Missouri’s last-minute charge came up just shy of covering. A pair of narrow losses the past two days have us down to 23-19 with these plays.

A couple of decent college basketball games on the slate for tonight and we’ll begin with the 8:30 p.m. games.

South Carolina at Arkansas: The Razorbacks opened as 9-point favorites and the line has dropped to Arkansas -7.5. Isaiah Joe is questionable to Arkansas and though he averages more than 16 points a game, he’s also shooting less than 37%, but is nearly as good from 3-point range at 34.4%. I have Arkansas winning 73-61 but will pass due to the uncertainty of the game.

Marquette at Xavier: The line movement will keep me off this one, as Xavier has moved from -2 to -2.5 with 27% of the wagers, while I have Marquette winning 73-71.

Indiana at Penn State: Penn State opened -6 and the line is now 5.5 even though the home team is getting close to 65% of the wagers. I have PSU winning 77-68, but another case of respecting the money and a pass.

Cal Baptist at Utah Valley: This one opened even and is still there despite more than 80% of the wagers coming in on Cal Baptist. I have Utah Valley 75-72 and will take the home team for the first of two plays tonight.

Baylor at Iowa State: Iowa State getting some action here, as the line has dropped from Baylor -5.5 to 3.5 with the Bears getting 75% of the bets. I have Baylor winning 70-67, which is too close to the number.

Louisville at Boston College: Louisville opened -13 and is now -12.5 with the Eagles getting close to 57% of the wagers, so the move is pretty much what you’d expect. I have Louisville winning 70-59.

San Diego State at New Mexico: The Aztecs have been holding steady as 10-point favorites all morning and I have them winning this one 79-65.

Nevada at Colorado State: CSU opened -4 and the line is still there with more than 70% of the early wagers on the home team. I have the Rams winning this one 78-73.
San Jose State at Boise State: Boise opened -16 and the line is down to 15.5 with the Spartans getting 56% of the wagers. I have Boise winning 90-68 and will take the Broncos -15.5 in this one.

Arizona State at Washington State: The Sun Devils opened as 2.5-point favorites and the number is still there with ASU getting 56% of the wagers. I have the Sun Devils winning 74-66, but a tough spot for ASU, coming off the win against Arizona and having the Washington Huskies up next. Will just stay clear.

END OF JAN. 29 PICKS

Bad break with the Hawkeyes last night, who were covering the entire game until the last two seconds, but those type of things are going to happen over the course of the season. We ended up 1-2 in the colleges overall last night, so will try to break back into the winning column tonight, as we’ll look at the 8 p.m. games, along with the showdown between Florida State and Virginia in our three college basketball articles.

Florida State at Virginia: The Cavs opened -1 in this one and the line is now even with the Seminoles getting the vast majority of the wagers. I have florida State winning an ugly one, 53-52.

Purdue at Rutgers: Rutgers opened as 3-point favorites and the line is still there even though the Scarlet Knights are getting a huge majority of the wagers. I have Rutgers winning 61-58.

Virginia Tech at Miami: Virginia Tech opened as 1.5-point favorites and the line is up to 3, with the road team getting more than 75% of the early wagers. I have the ‘Canes winning 72-68 on the basis of strength of schedule difference.

Ohio at Northern Illinois: Northern Illinois opened -4 and the line is down to 3 even though the home team is getting the bulk of the wagers. I have NIU winning this one by a 68-65 final.

Georgia at Missouri: Missouri opened as 4-point favorites and the line has climbed to 4.5 even though Georgia is getting 60% of the wagers. I have Missouri winning 72-66 and will take a shot on the Tigers -4 in this one.

Fresno at Air Force: Air Force opened -4 and the line is all the way down to 2.5 even though Air Force is getting two-thirds of the wagers. I have Air Force winning 72-71.

Auburn at Mississippi: Auburn is holding at -5, which is where the number opened, and the Tigers are getting 62% of the wagers. I’m pretty close to the number, having Auburn winning 73-67.

Pittsburgh at Duke: Duke opened -16 and is still there with the Blue Devils getting 55% of the wagers. I have Duke winning 77-57.

Butler at Georgetown: The Hoyas opened -1 and the line is still there, with Butler getting 75% of the wagers. I have Butler winning 70-68.

Utah State at Wyoming: Utah State is favored by 13, after opening 13.5, but seeing Wyoming get close to 60% of the wagers. I have Utah State winning 74-56.

END OF JAN. 28 PICKS

We got the money with both of our full-game side plays on Sunday to move to 23-17 and now have a pretty small six-game slate on tap for Monday. There are a couple of decent games, along with a few Big Sky Conference games, which I like, but am certainly in the minority there.

North Carolina at North Carolina State: The Wolfpack opened as 5.5-point favorites when the overnight line of 6 was lifted and the spread is still at 5.5 with the home getting a slight majority of wagers. The Tar Heels aren’t what they’ve been in the past, but still don’t trust NC State to win by at least six points, which is what my numbers are calling for, as I have NC State winning this one 75-69.

Sacramento State at Northern Arizona: The Lumberjacks opened as 3-point favorites and the line has dropped to 2 or 2.5 even though the home team is getting more than 65% of the early wagers in this one. I have NAU winning 60-56 but don’t trust the Lumberjacks enough to lay the points in this one, especially after factoring in the reverse line movement. Sacramento State can play tough defense and it might be asking a lot for a team that doesn’t play very good defense to outscore them. Will just stay clear of this one.

Wisconsin at Iowa: Iowa opened as 6-point favorites in this one and the line has dropped to 5.5 despite the Hawkeyes getting close to 70% of the early wagers in the game. Even though it’s just a half-point move you have to give it a little respect, as this will be one of the most heavily bet games on tonight’s schedule. I have Iowa winning 71-65, but will go ahead and take the Badgers plus the points, as I think they can keep this one close.

Kansas at Oklahoma State: While the line move in the Iowa game was significant, the line move here is huge, as Kansas has moved from -9 to -7 with the home team getting just 54% of the wagers. A two-point line move against a public team like Kansas is pretty significant and while I’d like to tag along, I have Kansas winning by a final score of 72-58, so won’t go against the numbers when there’s a seven-point difference between them and the line, but the line move will keep me off Kansas.

Northern Colorado at Eastern Washington: This one opened even and now my Eagles are favored by 1.5 after getting 65% of the wagers. I have EWU winning 75-74 in a tough game to call, so will just stay clear of this one.

Southern Utah at Idaho: Southern Utah is favored by 8 and the line hasn’t moved, with the Vandals getting close to 60% of the wagers. I have Southern Utah winning 74-61, so will just stay clear.

END OF JAN. 27 PICKS

A split with the two full-game sides on Saturday, we drop to 21-17 for the season and are now facing a decent card, where sharp money looks to be showing up in a fair number of games. Remember, when you look at the betting, sometimes a lack of line movement is just as telling as line movement depending on how the betting percentages are coming in.

Michigan State at Minnesota: The Spartans are favored by 3 and I made this one 69-69, while Pomeroy has Minnesota pulling out the win, but one thing I’ve noticed is that while Pomeroy is the primary word on college basketball as far as betting numbers go, when there are big differences in his prediction and the line, the bettors are correct more often that he is, so will just stay away.

Fordham at St. Louis: St. Louis is favored by 14.5 after opening 15. I have St. Louis winning 71-48, but the betting in the game makes me a little hesitant to back the home team.

Xavier at Creighton: It’s more of the same here, as Creighton has moved from -6 to -5.5 even though they’ve received more than 60% of the wagers. I have Creighton winning 77-66 but no interest in going against the line move.

Loyola-Chicago at Northern Iowa: Northern Iowa is favored by 4.5 and I have them winning 71-59. The line has held steady even though Northern Iowa is getting two-thirds of the wagers, but we are seeing the lay price shift at a few places to -115 on NIU. Will stay away from the full-game wager in this one.

Missouri State at Drake: Drake has moved from -4.5 to -5.5 after getting 75% of the wagers and I have them winning 67-61.

San Diego State at UNLV: The wise guys are hitting the Runnin’ Rebels hard and my numbers agree, as the Aztecs moved from -8 to -6.5 after getting 70% of the wagers. I have the Aztecs winning 63-60, so will take UNLV plus the points in this one.

Evansville at Valparaiso: Valpo has moved from -13.5 to -13 in this one after getting the majority of the wagers and I have them winning 84-67.

UCLA at Oregon: The Ducks are favored by 11.5 after opening 12.5 and getting two-thirds of the wagers, so even though I have Oregon winning 79-60 no real interest in the home team.

Stanford at California: Stanford opened -8 and the line is holding steady even though the Cardinal are getting more than 80% of the early wagers. I have Stanford winning 65-59, so will take a shot on the Bears +8 here.

Ohio State at Northwestern: Ohio State has moved from -6.5 to -6 after getting close to 60% of the wagers. I have the Buckeyes winning 68-60.

END OF JAN. 26 PICKS

Have stunk it up the last couple of nights in college hoops, while the NBA has helped keep the bleeding to a minimal amount, so will try to get untracked today in the college ranks. We’ll beginning with the 9 p.m. games and start off with the full-game sides, as those numbers are pretty firm, while first half numbers are slowly coming out.

Washington at Colorado: The Buffs have moved from -7 to -8 after getting two-thirds of the early wagers and I have them winning 67-59, so no real value on either side in this one.

Montana State at Idaho State: Montana State opened -1 and the line is still there with the betting being pretty well split down the middle. I have Idaho State winning 67-63 and can see why MSU is favored based on overall records, although Big Sky Conference records are pretty close, with MSU 4-4 and ISU at 3-5. Will take a shot on Idaho State +1 for the first of two plays here today.

St. Mary’s at Loyola Marymount: St. Mary’s opened -10 and is still there, while I have the road team with a 71-63 victory, so not much happening in the way of value.

Montana at Weber State: Montana opened -3 and the line is down to 2 with more than 75% of the early wagers on Montana. I have Weber winning 69-66 and will take Weber State +2 for our other play of the day.

Arizona at Arizona State: The wildcats have moved from -4.5 to -5 after getting the bulk of the wagers and I have Arizona winning 76-71.

Pacific at Gonzaga: The Zags opened -21.5 and the line has dipped slightly to 20.5 with Gonzaga getting a slight majority of the wagers. I have GU winning 85-63.

Colorado State at Utah State: Utah State has moved from -7 to -8 after getting more than 60% of the wagers and I have them winning 80-67.

Seattle at Bakersfield: Bakersfield opened -1.5 and the line has just hit 2.5, while I have Bakersfiled winning by a 76-67 final score.

Cal Poly at Irvine: Irvine opened -17 and the line has dropped to 16 with Cal Poly getting over 60% of the wagers. I have Irvine winning 75-58, so a quick pass for me in this one.

Riverside at UCSB: Santa Barbara has moved from -5 to -6.5, while I have it closer, with UCSB winning 63-62.

UMKC at Cal Baptist: UMKC is getting bet a little bit this morning, having moved from +8.5 to +6.5, even though Cal Baptist is getting more than 60% of the wagers. I have Cal Baptist winning this one 78-70.

END OF JAN. 25 PICKS

A lackluster 2-3 night overall in hoops, splitting the two NBA games and going 1-2 in college basketball. We’re faced with the usual small slate of games in the college ranks today, with the usual assortment of East Coast teams, along with a couple of games from one of the big conferences, with a couple of decent Big Ten matchups on the slate for today. We moved to 20-15 here, but it was our lone college win of the three plays.

Kent State at Buffalo: Buffalo opened -3 and is now favored by 4 after getting three-quarters of the early wagers. I have Buffalo winning 82-81.

Yale at Brown: Brown is seeing some pretty good action in this one, as Yale opened -6 and the line is now down to 4.5 with Yale attracting more than 75% of the early wagers. I have Yale rolling to a 75-62 win, but no interest in bucking the line move.

Fairfield at Quinnipac: Quinnipac opened -4 and the line is still there with close to two-thirds of the wagers on the home team. I have Quinnipac winning 62-60.

Marist at Siena: Siena has moved from -10.5 to 11 after getting 55% of the wagers. I have them winning 73-58.

Canisius at Iona: Iona is favored by 3 in another decent reverse move for this evening. The Gaels opened -1 and Canisius has received more than 60% of the wagers, but the line has shot the other way. I have Canisius winning 73-69 but will stay clear of the line move.

St. Peter’s at Rider: Rider opened -5 and moved to 6.5 after getting 44% of the wagers. I have Rider winning 70-64.

Niagara at Monmouth: Monmouth opened -7.5 and the line is holding steady even though Niagara is getting nearly 80% of the wagers in this one. I have Monmouth winning 72-67, but no real interest in the road team after seeing the betting patterns.

Wisconsin at Purdue: The best game of the night sees Purdue favored by 4, which is where they opened, and the betting is pretty well split right down the middle. I have Purdue winning 60-56.

Marquette at Butler: Another decent game, Butler opened -5 and the line is up to 6 with Butler getting 60% of the wageres in the game. I have Butler winning 69-61.

Northern Kentucky at Wright State: Wright State opened -2.5 and the line is up to 4 with Wright getting 63% of the wagers. I have Northern Kentucky winning 78-70, so will take a shot on the road team in this one.

END OF JAN. 24 PICKS

An overall split with college basketball last night, winning our two first half side plays, which haven’t done as well as the others, but we dropped our total and full-game side. Lost a bit of our archives, but by piecing together everything was able to update the records. Even with our two wins last night, we’re just 19-20 with the first-half side plays, 19-15 with the full game plays and 29-20-3 with our totals.

We’ll start off with our full-game side plays, as first half lines are still a little sketchy and not up everywhere. We’ll start with some of the 9 p.m. games.

Tennessee State at Austin Peay: This one opened AP-9 and the line has dropped to 8.5 at most places with the road team getting more than 60% of the early wagers. I have Austin Peay winning this one by a score of 85-72.

Montana State at Weber State: Weber State is getting bet a little bit this morning, as Weber opened -2 and the line has climbed to -3 with Weber getting close to three-quarters of the wagers. The numbers agree, as I have Weber State winning by a 70-64 final score.

Montana at Idaho State: The Grizzlies opened -6 and the line is holding at Montana -6 even though they are getting two-thirds of the wagers. Montana playing well now and is 6-1 in Big Sky Conference, but haven’t been as good on the road as they have at home this season. I have this one 65-65 and will take a shot on Idaho State as a home underdog in this one.

Seattle at Grand Canyon: Grand Canyon opened -2 and the line just hit 2.5 at a few shops with the home team getting more than 70% of the wagers. I have Grand Canyon winning 71-70.

Connecticut at Houston: Houston has moved from -9.5 to -9 after getting 57% of the early wagers and I have the Cougars winning 75-59.

BYU at Pacific: BYU opened 7 and the line is down to 5.5 with Pacific getting 75% of the early wagers. I have BYU 78-64, but Childs is a question mark for BYU, who have struggled on the road some.

Portland at Loyola Marymount: Loyola has moved from -6 to -6.5 after getting more than 60% of the wagers and I have them winning 69-61.

Utah Valley at Bakersfield: I have Bakersfield winning this one 76-65 and they’re favored by 5, with the road team getting close to two-thirds of the wagers.

Pepperdine at Santa Clara: Santa Clara moved from -3.5 to -4 with 60% of the wagers and I have them winning 80-79.

Washington State at Colorado: Colorado opened -13.5 and the line is still there with pretty even betting. I have the Buffs 76-56.

Cal Poly at Riverside: Riverside is favored by 8.5 and I have them winning 62-57.

END OF JAN. 23 PICKS

Will get record fixed tomorrow, as a few issues have us running late this morning.

Creighton at DePaul: DePaul is favored by 1.5 after opening as 1-point favorites after getting 61% of the wagers and I have Creighton winning 77-75.

Boston College at Pitt: Pitt opened -12.5 and the line has dropped to -11 after getting 43% of the wagers and I have Pitt winning 65-54.

Rutgers at Iowa: Iowa opened -5.5 and the line has held steady even though Iowa is getting more than 70% of the wagers. I have Iowa winning 71-65.

Northern Iowa at Southern Illinois: Northern Iowa has moved from -6.5 to -5.5 with the betting being split down the middle. I have Northern Iowa winning 67-57.

Fresno State at Colorado State: Colorado State has moved from 5.5 to 5 after getting more than 70% of the wagers in the game. I have Colorado State winning 71-67.

Alabama at Vanderbilt: The Crimson Tide opened as 10-point favorites and the line hasn’t moved despite 75% of the wagers on the road team. I have Alabama winning 92-76.

Memphis at Tulsa: I have Memphis winning this one 65-63 and the Tigers have moved to 3.5 point favorites after opening -3 and getting 60% of the wagers.

Northridge at UCSB: UCSB has moved from -8 to -9 after getting 40% of the wagers in the game. I have Santa Barbara winning 77-72.

Chicago State at Cal Baptist: Cal Baptist opened -26 and the line is still there with the betting being pretty well split down the middle. I have this one 93-67, so right at the number.

Irvine at Long Beach: Irvine opened 9.5 and this one has help pretty steady with pretty close betting down the middle. I have Irvine winning 77-68.

Fullerton State at UC Davis: UC Davis has moved from -4 to -4.5 after getting 62% of the wagers, so nothing out of the ordinary with the line movement. I have UCD winning 69-61 and will take UCD in this one and lay the points.

UNLV at Nevada: Nevada opened -5 and the line is still there even though UNLV is getting more than 60% of the wagers. I have Nevada winning 77-68.

END OF JAN. 22 PICKS

Won both college sides last night, but did drop the NBA game after a 73-point fourth quarter and split the two college football plays for a 3-2 night overall. Adjusting for the current odds, as the site was down for a while this morning and some of the numbers have changed since I wrote this.

UCF at Tulane: Tulane is now favored by 1.5 points and I them taking a 69-66 victory.

Akron at Northern Illinois: Akron moved from -3 to -2.5 even though the Zips are getting more than three-quarters of the early wagers in this one. I have Akron winning by a 68-63 score.

VCU at Dayton: The Flyers opened 8.5 and Dayton is now favored by 8 after getting a slight majority of the wagers. I have the Flyers winning this one by a 74-63 final.

Texas Tech at Kansas State: Texas Tech opened as 3.5-point favorites and the line is holding steady even though the Red Raiders are getting more than 70% of the wagers. I have this one even and will take a shot on the home underdog in this one.

Iowa at Northwestern: Iowa from -5 to 5.5 after getting a good majority of the wagers here. I have Iowa winning 75-65.

DePaul at Villanova: Villanova moved from -10.5 to -9.5 in a game that has seen pretty good two-way action. I have the Wildcats winning 77-65.

TCU at West Virginia: West Virginia has gone from -8.5 to -7.5 on pretty good two-way action. TCU only has three away games to their credit, so their numbers may be a little slanted as I have West Virginia winning easily, 69-53.

Kansas at Oklahoma: Kansas opened 6.5 and the line is still there despite Kansas getting more than 75% of the wagers. I have Kansas winning 78-63.

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest: Virginia Tech is favored by 3 and I have Wake Forest winning by a 69-67 final, although the home team could be without Chaundee Brown, who is averaging more than 13 points and 6.5 rebounds per game.

Maryland at Wisconsin: The Badgers are favored by 2.5 and I have them winning this one by a 61-60 final.

Missouri at Miss State: Mississippi State has moved from 3.5 to 2.5 even though they’re getting the bulk of the wagers. I have State winning 63-61.

Wyoming at Nevada: Nevada has moved from -15.5 to -14.5 with Wyoming getting 57% of the wagers. I have Nevada winning 75-57.

San Diego State at Fresno State: San Diego State is favored by 7.5 and I have them winning 67-60.

END OF JAN. 14 PICKS

We pulled one out at the end, as Xavier got the half-point cover for us on Sunday, as we moved to 14-9 with our full-game sides, although first-half sides are still struggling a bit, a case of trying to use different games for the two plays and have picked the wrong one for the first half compared to the full game several times.

Lafayette at Appalachian State: Appalachian State opened as 9.5-point favorites and the line is now down to 8.5 with 64% of the wagers coming in on Lafayette. I have Appalachian State winning this one by 17.

Monroe at Coastal Carolina: Coastal Carolina opened as 7.5-point favorites and the line is down to 7 with Monroe getting a little more than 50% of the wagers in the game. I have coastal Carolina winning by 12.

Georgia Southern at Little Rock: Little Rock is favored by 2.5 in this one after opening -2 and getting two-thirds of the wagers. I have Georgia Southern winning by 1.

South Alabama at Arlington: Arlington opened 7.5 and the line is now down to 6.5 with South Alabama getting more than 60% of the wagers. I have Arlington winning this one by 18 due to strength of schedule differences.

Troy at Texas State: Texas State opened -11.5 and the line is down to 10.5 after Troy received 70% of the wagers. I have Texas State winning this one by 19 and will go ahead and take the home favorite in this one.

Georgia State at Arkansas State: Georgia State is favored by 3.5 after opening as 4.5-point favorites and seeing Arkansas State get more than 70% of the wagers. I have Georgia State winning by 14.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State: West Virginia opened -2 and the line is down to 1 even with the Mountaineers getting more than two-thirds of the early wagers. I have West Virginia winning by one.

END OF JAN. 6 PICKS

Was way off the mark with Penn on Saturday in a game that really caught me off guard, as the Quakers had better numbers against better competition and were at home and then came out and rolled over. The loss knocked us down to 14-9 on the season, which is much better than our first-half sides, which have been a struggle. Win or lose, will always say how we’re doing even if it is ugly at times.

Mass at St. Louis: St. Louis opened 10.5 and the line has dropped to 10 with the road team getting 70% of the early wagers. I have St. Louis winning by 9.

St. Bonnies at George Washington: St. Bonnies opened 3.5 and the line is holding steady with the favorite getting 57% of the wagers. My numbers have the Bonnies winning by 10.

St. Johns at Xavier: Xavier opened 7.5 and the line is still there with St. Johns getting more than 60% of the early wagers. This could be one of those times where the lack of line movement is just as important as a line move in that this one number should have dropped slightly, as the number of wagers on this game are going to put some of the smaller school games to shame. I have Xavier winning by 13 due to their strength of schedule advantage and will take the home favorite in this one.

Denver at South Dakota: South Dakota opened 12.5 and the number is still there with Denver getting more than 70% of the early wagers. I have the home team winning by 15.

Fort Wayne at North Dakota: North Dakota opened -4.5 and this one has stayed put with Fort Wayne getting close to 60% of the wagers. I have North Dakota winning by 12.

Oregon State at Colorado: The Buffaloes opened -9 and the line has dropped down to 7.5 although Colorado is getting a slight majority of the wagers here. I have Colorado winning by 15 but will stay clear due to the line move and the fact that Colorado could have a bit of a hangover after knocking off the Ducks.

Northwestern at Minnesota: Another game where I’ll respect the line, as Minnesota moved from -10 to 9.5 despite getting more than 60% of the wagers. I have the Gophers winning by 20.

Purdue at Illinois: The Illini have moved from -1 to -2.5 after getting 75% of the wagers and I have Purdue winning by one in what should be a decent game.

USC at Washington: The Huskies moved from -4.5 to -5, which is what I have this one at.

END OF JAN. 5 PICKS

The sportsbooks are slow to post first-half totals, so we’ll jump to our full-game sides and a bit of a surprise that these are 9-6 on the season and our first-half sides are just 8-11, as I use the two in tandem a bit, but we’ve lost a couple of close ones. The first-half totals are carrying us so far with a 14-8 record.

Greensboro at Wofford: This one is even and I have Greensboro winning by a point.

Towson at Wilmington: Towson is favored by 5 on the road and I have Wilington coming away with a one-point victory.

UCLA at WSU: The Bruins are now favored by and I have them beating Washington State by 6.

Texas A & M at Arkansas: The Razorbacks are favored by 14 and I have them winning by 24.

UTSA at Florida International: FIU is favored by 4.5 and I have them winning this one by one.

San Jose State at Fresno State: The Bulldogs are favored by 12 and I have Fresno winning by 16.

Valparaiso at Evansville: The Purple Aces are favored by 1.5 at home and I have Valpo winning this one by 4.

UAB at Old Dominion: Old Dom is favored by 5 and I have them winning this one by 4.

Princeton at Penn: Penn is favored by 7.5 and I have them winning by 25, so will go ahead and take the Quakers -7.5 in this one.

Bradley at Northern Iowa: Northern Iowa is favored by 7.5 and I have them winning by 14.

Missouri State at Loyola-Chicago: Loyola is favored by 5.5 and I have them winning by 7.

Oral Roberts at Omaha: Omaha is favored by 1.5 and I have Oral Roberts rolling in this one, but a little hesitant to take a 1-7 road team against a 7-0 home team in this one.

SEMO at Murray State: Murray is favored by 15 and I have them winning by 14.

Troy at Lafayette: Lafayette is favored by 4 and I have them winning by a point.

Texas at Baylor: Baylor is favored by 9 and I have them winning by 11.

Utah Valley at UMKC: Kansas City is favored by 3 and I have them winning this one by 15.

Montana at Northern Colorado: Northern Colrado is favored by 7 in this one and I have them winning by 12.

SMU at Vanderbilt: SMU is favored by 2 and I have Vandy winning by 1.

ASU at Arizona: Arizona is favored by 11 and I have them winning by 13.

Pepperdine at Gonzaga: The Zags are favored by 20.5 and I have them winning by 27.

END JAN. 4 PICKS

We’ll wrap up our hoops with our full-game side play. Getting late so we’ll whiz right through these for the most part.

Toledo at Ball State: Ball State is favored by two and I have them winning this one by four points.

Wright State at Oakland: Wright State is favored by 3.5 and I have Oakland coming away with a five-point victory in this one.

Illinois-Chicago at Green Bay: Green Bay is favored by 6 and I have them winning this one by more than 20 points due to their strength of schedule and will take Green Bay in this one.

St. Peter’s at Iona: Iona is favored by 9 and I have them winning by 5.

Quinnipac at Marist: Quinnipac is favored by 6 and that’s the same margin that I have on this one.

Monmouth at Siena: Siena is favored by 7 and I have them winning this one by nine points.

Manhattan at Canisius: Canisius is favored by 5.5 and I have them winning by 12.

Northern Kentucky at Detroit: Northern Kentucky is favored by 5.5 and I have them coming away with a nine-point victory on the road.

Fairfield at Niagara: Fairfield is favored by 2.5 and I have this one even.

Wisconsin at Ohio State: The Buckeyes opened -10 and the line is all the way down to Buckeyes -7.5 with the away team getting 57% of the wagers. I have the Buckeyes winning this one by 11.

Delaware at Drexel: Delaware is favored by 2 points and I have them coming away with a one-point victory.

UCF at Houston: Houston is favored by 10 and I have them winning this one by 19.

Rutgers at Nebraska: Rutgers is favored by 4 and I have them winning by 10, but wouldn’t want to touch the Scarlet Knights in this one due to their home and away splits.

IUPUI at Milwaukee: Milwaukee is favored by 9 and I have them winning this one by 13.

Kent State at Bowling Green: Bowling Green is favored by 1.5 and I have this one even.

Georgetown at Seton Hall: Seton Hall is favored by 6 and I have them winning this one by 13.

Temple at Tulsa: Temple is favored by 2.5 and I have them winning this one by 14.

END OF JAN. 3 PICKS

Lots of games on the college schedule and we’ll look at all of the 7 p.m. starts, along with the two big games in the Pac-12 Conference, as we dropped to 7-6 on our full-game sides after a lackluster effort by Boise, who only won by 11 as 16.5-point favorites in a game that was a little closer than the final. With the number of games, not much time for analysis, so we’ll wiz right through them.

St. Joes at Richmond: Richmond opened -14 and the line has moved to 13 with St. Joes getting a little more than two-thirds of the early wagers. I have the Spiders winning by 13.

Fordham at VCU: The Rams opened -20 and the line has dropped to 19.5 with Fordham getting three-quarters of the early wagers. I have VCU winning by 25.

St. Louis at Duquesne: Duquesne opened -3 and the line is still there with Duquesne getting 60% of the wagers. I have them winning by two.

UTSA at FAU: Florida Atlantic opened -4 and the line is now 3.5 with FAU getting 58% of the early wagers. I have UTSA winning by a pair.

Towson State at Charleston: Charleston opened 6.5 and the line is still there with Towson getting 60% of the early wagers in the game. I have Charleston winning by 7.

Elon at Northeastern: Northeastern opened -15 and is holding steady even through Elon is getting more than 60% of the wagers. I have Northeastern winning by 7.

Minnesota at Purdue: Purdue has moved from -8 to -7.5 with Minnesota getting more than two-thirds of the wagers. I have Purdue winning by 5.

Rhode Island at Brown: Rhode Island opened 8.5 and the line dropped to 8 with URI getting more than 60% of the wagers. I have Rhode Island winning by 15.

Georgia State at Appalachian State: Appalachian State has moved from -2.5 to -2 with Georgia State getting a slight majority of the wagers. I have Georgia State winning by one.

UAB at Charlotte: Charlotte opened 3 and is now favored by 2.5 with UAB getting more than 60% of the early wagers. I have Charlotte winning by 5.

Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina: Coastal Carolina opened -1 and is now favored by 1.5 after getting more than 70% of the early wagers. I have this one even.

Rice at Marshall: The Thundering Herd opened 6.5 and moved to -8 with less than 40% of the wagers. I have Marshall winning by 10.

North Texas at Western Kentucky: Western Kentucky opened -4.5 and the line is now 3.5 after North Texas received more than two-thirds of the early bets. I have North Texas by 5.

William & Mary at Hofstra: Hofstra opened -6.5 and is now 7 on pretty even betting. I have Hofstra by 4.

Oregon State at Utah: The Utes opened -1.5 and are now favored by 2 after getting 60% of the wagers. I have Utah winning by 12, so will take Utah in this one.

Oregon at Colorado: The Buffs opened -1.5 and the Ducks are now 1.5 after getting 70% of the wagers. I have Oregon winning by 3.

END OF JAN. 2 PICKS

Not a whole lot happening on the college basketball scene for Wednesday, as we have just 14 games on the schedule and we’ll skip the ones starting at 3 p.m. or earlier, leaving us with nine games to look at for New Year’s Day. We fell to 7-5 on the season last time out when North Dakota wilted in the final two minutes.

Wofford at East Tennessee State: East Tennessee opened as 9-point favorites and is now favored by 8.5 with the betting split right down the middle. Wofford did get the upset at North Carolina, but other than that have been pretty average on the road this season. East Tennessee State hasn’t played the greatest schedule, but a definite revenge spot after they lost all three games last year.

USF at SMU: Decent game here, as the Mustangs opened -6 and are now 6.5 after getting close to three-quarters of the wagers. I have SMU winning by two.

Connecticut at Cincinnati: The Bearcats opened as 3.5-point favorites and we’ve seen a little bit of a reverse move, with the line dropping down to three even though Cincinnati is getting close to 65% of the early wagers. I have the Bearcats winning by 7 but a little hesitant given the line move and the fact that it’s a big revenge game for the Huskies, who lost both games last year by two and by four points.

Mercer at Greensboro: Big reverse move here, as Greensboro opened -15 and the line is now 13.5 even though the home team is getting 58% of the early wagers. I have Greensboro easily winning by 25 but will respect the line move in this one and just stay away.

Wyoming at Boise State: Boise opened 17 and is now favored by 16 despite getting 70% of the wagers. I have Boise winning this one by 26 and will go ahead and take the favorite here, as Wyoming is averaging less than 50 points a game on the road.

Marquette at Creighton: Decent game here, where Creighton opened -3 and is still there with pretty good two-way action. I have Creighton winning by 1.

Colorado State at Nevada: Nevada opened as 7-point favorites and the line dropped to 5.5 with the road team getting a slight majority of the wagers, so a bigger move than we should have seen. I have Nevada winning by 6.

New Mexico at San Jose State: New Mexico opened -10 and the line is still there with decent two-way action. I have the Lobos winning by 4.

Utah State at UNLV: Utah State opened as 7-point favorites and the line is still there with State getting 60% of the wagers. I have them rolling by 17, but they have a huge drop-off on the road.

END JAN. 1 PICKS

We moved to 7-4 with our full-game side plays and will hurry and run the list for today, beginning with the 4 p.m. games.

Appalachian State at NC State: NC State opened as 14-point favorites and the line is down to 13.5 in a game I have State winning by 6.

Tenn Tech at Ole Miss: Ole Miss moved from 22 to 21.5 in this one and I have them winning by 11, but as we’ve mentioned, Tennessee Tech not close to the same team on the road.

UC Davis at New Mexico: New Mexico is favored by 13.5 and I have them winning by 12, so nothing happening in this one.

Bakersfield at Texas Tech: Texas Tech opened -20.5 and now the line is Red Raiders -20 with pretty decent two-way action on this one. I have Texas Tech winning by 11.

Rhode Island at Middle Tenn: Rhode Island opened -9 and the line is all the way down to Rams -5.5 even though URI has received more than 60% of the wagers in the game. I have this one even and am tempted to take the home dog, although we’ve lost a fair amount of value with the big line move.

FAU at USF: The Bulls are favored by 8.5 and I have them winning this one by 8.

South Dakota at Western Illinois: South Dakota is favored by 5.5 and I have this one even.

ND State at Denver: ND State has moved from 8 to 8.5 even though they’re getting close to a third of the wagers in the game. I have them winning by 9.

Harvard at California: Harvard is favored by 3.5 after opening as 3-point favorites and getting 35% of the wagers. I have Harvard winning by 3.

UCSB at Lafayette: Santa Barbara is favored by 2.5 points and I have this one even.

Western Michigan at Michigan State: The Spartans opened as 27-point favorites and the line is still there with Western Michigan getting a small majority of the wagers. I have State winning by 34.

Tulsa at Kansas State: Kansas State is favored by 7.5 in this one and I have them winning by 13.

North Dakota at Oregon State: The Beavers opened as 14-point favorites and the line is now 13.5 with OSU getting three-quarters of the wagers. I have this one a one-point game and even factoring in home and away stats I’d have this a 10-point game, so will go ahead and take North Dakota plus the points.

Richmond at Alabama: Alabama is favored by 6.5 and I have them winning this one by 14.

END OF DEC. 29 PICKS

First-half college lines haven’t been posted yet and there’s still a number of games in the NBA where lines are just starting to pop up, so we’ll jump to our college basketball side plays. As usual on Saturday, we’ll use the night games, beginning with game No. 649. We’re 6-4 with these plays after losing last one.

Cal Poly at San Diego State: San Diego State opened as 27-point favorites and the line has held steady with 54% of the early wagers landing on the home team. I have San Diego State winning this one by 28, so pretty much right on the number here.

Wilmington at Delaware: Delaware opened as 12-point favorites and Wilmington is getting close to 90% of the early wagers in the game, but the line hasn’t moved. I have Delaware winning by just two, but a closer look at Wilmington shows they’re about 15 points worse on the road than they are home, as they’ve padded their stats with a pair of 55-point wins at home over Emory & Henry and NC Wesleyan.

Niagara at Syracuse: Syracuse opened -22 and the line is still there with Niagara getting more than 60% of the early wagers. I have the Orange winning by 27.

Belmont at Western Kentucky: Pretty decent game here, as the Hilltoppers opened -2 and are still there in pretty mixed betting. I have Western Kentucky winning by 3.

Seattle at Saint Marys: Saint Marys opened -20.5 and the line has dropped to 19 with Seattle getting the majority of the wagers. I have Saint Marys winning this one by 23.

Oral Roberts at BYU: The Cougars opened -14 and the line has held steady with Oral Roberts getting 60% of the wagers. I have BYU winning by a pair, but this is another one where Oral Roberts has built up some stats playing some weaker teams, along with a mixture of tough games, where they’ve held their own. Oral Roberts scores 6.7 fewer points and allows 5.8 more on the road, while BYU scores 2 more and allows 6.1 fewer points at home.

Pepperdine at San Jose State: Pepperdine opened 7.5 and is now favored by 8.5 after getting three-quarters of the early wagers. The numbers like the Spartans due to their schedule and have San Jose winning by 1, but no interest in taking a San Jose State team that has dropped eight straight and just lost by 15 at home to Riverside.

Riverside at Fresno: Speaking of Riverside, they opened as 8-point dogs at Fresno and the line is still there with pretty mixed betting. I have the Bulldogs winning by 14.

Idaho at Idaho State: Ugly game here where the home team is favored by 7 and I have it a one-point game.

Pacific at Irvine: Irvine opened -8 and the line has dropped to 7.5 with Pacific getting 70% of the wagers. Huge strength of schedule difference here for Irvine and I have them winning by 22, so will go against the grain and take the Anteaters.

END OF DEC. 28 PICKS

A much smaller slate of games on tap for Monday, which is fine, as it gives a little more time to look at the games in a bit more detail. We’re 6-3 in our full game sides, which is definitely better than our first-half sides.

Canisius at Siena: The Saints opened as 5-point favorites and the line has climbed to 7 even though Canisius is getting the majority of the wagers in this one. Canisius won both meetings last year and I have Siena winning this one by 12. Siena has played just three home games this season, so it’s hard to put too much stock into those numbers, which are a fair amount better than the overall numbers of the Saints, and I’d have Siena winning by 28. With both numbers liking Siena, along with a bit of a reverse move, will take Siena in this one.

Long Beach State at Seattle: Seattle opened as 4-point favorites and the line has climbed to 5 even though Long Beach is getting the majority of the wagers in this one. My numbers have a fondness for Long Beach due to their schedule played and they got the job done for us last time they played. My overall numbers have Long Beach winning by 4, but looking at home and away figures, I’d have Seattle by 14, although that’s in part due to the quality of competition played.

Georgia Southern at Georgia: The Bulldogs opened 9.5 and the line has dipped down to 8.5 with Georgia Southern getting close to two-thirds of the wagers in the game. I have Georgia winning this one by five points in the overall ratings and by more than 20 when you look at just home and away numbers.

Georgia State at SMU: The Mustangs opened as 7.5-point favorites and the line has climbed to 8 points even with Georgia State getting roughly two-thirds of the wagers in the game. Both sets of numbers have Georgia State winning, as SMU gets dinged by strength of schedule.

San Francisco at Fresno State: Fresno State opened -1 and now the Dons are favored by 1.5 after getting close to 80% of the early wagers in the game. The numbers disagree and both are selecting Fresno State to win based on strength of schedule difference.

Grambling at Dayton: Interesting game here, at least from a betting standpoint, as Dayton opened -26 and the line is still there with pretty good two-way action. Dayton is 2-0 ATS when favored by 20 or more points this year, but I have this one a little closer than the spread on both numbers. Part of that is due to Grambling blowing out teams their first two games, however.

END OF DEC. 23 PICKS

Coming off a dismal 1-2 night in college basketball and there’s a massive slate of games for Saturday, so we’ll just look at some of the games that start at 7 p.m.

Northern Kentucky at NC-Greensboro: Greensboro opened as 6-point favorites and are now favored by 8 in a decent reverse move, as they’ve only received 30% of the wagers in the game. I have Greensboro winning by four.

Kansas St. vs. St. Louis: Kansas State is favored by and I have St. Louis winning by 6, but no interest in this neutral court game.

Eastern Michigan at Michigan State: The Spartans opened as 22-point favorites and are now favored by 23.5 after getting 60% of the wagers. I have Michigan State winning this one by 20.

Utah Valley State at Long Beach State: This one opened even and is still there with Utah Valley getting a little more than 60% of the wagers, while I have Long Beach winning this one by 11, so will go ahead and take the 49ers even in this game.

NC-Wilmington at Vanderbilt: The commodores opened 15.5 and the line is now down to 15 with Wilmington getting about 57% of the wagers. My numbers had Wilmington winning the game, but running home and away figures sees Wilmington averaging 17 fewer points on the road as they do at home, so a huge difference there.

Idaho at South Dakota State: SD State opened -14.5 and the line has dropped to 13.5 with Idaho getting more than 60% of the wagers. I have South Dakota State winning by 15.

Eastern Illinois at Grand Canyon: Some sharp money coming in on Grand Canyon in this one, which opened Grand Canyon -1 and is now up to 3 with the home team getting roughly 56% of the wagers. I have Eastern Illinois winning by 12, but home and away numbers have this a one-point game with Eastern winning.

Creighton at Arizona State: The sun Devils opened -3 and are still there despite getting less than 40% of the wagers. I have ASU winning by 8.

Northwestern at DePaul: DePaul is favored by 6 and I have them winning by the same margin.

Oregon State at Texas A & M: The Beavers opened as 6-point favorites and now Oregon State is favored by 6.5 after getting close to 70% of the wagers. I have OSU winning by 8.

END DEC. 21 PICKS

We’re 5-2 with our full-game sides, as we’ve been pretty selective in the early going on the season so far.

James Madison at Fordham: Fordham is favored by 3.5, which is right where they opened and Madison has received 58% of the early wagers. I have JMU winning by 8, but the difference in home and away performance is more than I’m giving credit to.

SMU at Georgia: The Bulldogs opened -5 and the line is still there with SMU getting close to 60% of the wagers. A few places have knocked the line down to 4.5. I have Georgia rolling to the win in this one by 16, but Georgia loaded up on creampuffs to start the year.

Furman at Mercer: Furman is favored by 8.5 and I have them winning by 20 and Furman has won the last five meetings between the two, although the games haven’t been blowouts.

Irvine at Illinois-Chicago: A bit of a tough spot here for Irvine, as this will be their fourth game in six days and they had to travel from El Paso to get here. Irvine is favored by 4.5 and I have them winning by close to 20, but a little hard to get excited about this one.

Northern Colorado at South Dakota: South Dakota is favored by 1 and I have Northern Colorado winning by 10, but some pretty significant home and away performances by both teams here will just keep me away from this one.

North Dakota State at Marquette: Marquette opened as 15-point favorites and the line is down to 13, with ND State getting 60% of the wagers in the game. I have Marquette winning this one by 19.

IUPUI at Fresno: Fresno State is favored by 13.5 after opening as 14.5-point favorites and seeing IUPUI get more than 70% of the wagers in the game. I have Fresno winning by 18.

Akron vs. Tulane: Akron is favored by 4.5 in this one and I have them winning by 10. The Zips opened 6.5, but Tulane has received 60% of the wagers in the game.

Liberty at Towson: Liberty opened as 7-point favorites and the line is still there, with Liberty getting 60% of the wagers. I have Towson winning this one by 5 and will go ahead and take Towson +7 in this one. Liberty has played one of the worst schedules in college basketball and this one should be low-scoring, so the points could very well come into play.

Drexel vs. Quinnipac: Quinnipac is favored by 1.5 and I have Drexel winning by 6.

END OF DEC. 20 PICKS

Running a bit behind today after my 15-minute doctor’s appointment turned into two hours, something I’m sure most of you can relate to.

Another ugly night, as I’ve stunk it up the past few days after a decent run, which is all part of the game. Since we’re running late, just the one article here today and we’ll look at just a few of the games.

North Texas at Dayton: Dayton opened as 16.5-point favorites and the line has dropped to 16 even though the Flyers are getting the majority of the wagers in this one. I have Dayton winning by just nine, although North Texas is about 11 points worse on the road, so one to just stay away from.

Southeast Missouri at Ohio State: The Buckeyes opened 29.5 and the line is still there despite Ohio State getting 65% of the wagers so far in this one. Ohio State has the talent to win by 40 and I have them winning by 41, but not quite sure they’ll be entirely motivated to put a hurtin’ on SEMO.

Northeastern at Eastern Michigan: EMU has moved from -1 to -1.5 after getting 75% of the wagers, so perhaps a little more movement should have occurred. I have Eastern Michigan winning by 12, but they’ve padded their stats against some pretty weak foes.

Toledo at Missouri-Kansas City: Toledo opened as 8.5-point favorites and the line has dropped to 7.5 even with three-quarters of the wagers coming in on Toledo. I have Kansas City winning by four, but no real interest in this one.

Oral Roberts at Chicago State: Oral Roberts opened as 15.5-point favorites and the line is up to 16 even though Oral Roberts has just 30% of the wagers in this one. I have Oral Robert winning by more than 30 points, so will take the road favorite in this one.

Oklahoma at Creighton: Decent game here, as Creighton opened as 3.5-point favorites and the line has stayed there with the home team getting two-thirds of the early wagers. I have the Sooners pulling out the win in this one.

END OF DEC. 17 PICKS

We moved to 4-1 with one last time when Kansas managed to hang on for the cover. We’ll look at some of the night games here, which is pretty much going to be our standard from here on out.

Drake at Dayton: Dayton is favored by 16, which is where the number opened and Drake is getting the majority of wagers in this one. I have Dayton winning by 25.

New Mexico State at New Mexico: Little reverse move here, as New Mexico opened -5.5 and are now down to 4. I have the Lobos winning this one by 5.

Evansville at Green Bay: Green Bay is favored by 3 and the line is holding steady with Evansville getting the majority of the wagers. I have Green Bay cruising to the win here by 20.

Bakersfield at Idaho: Bakersfield is favored by 6 and I them winning by 15, but another case of Bakersfield being a completely different team away from home, where they’re outscored by 20 points.

Stanford at San Jose State: Stanford is favored by 17 in this one and I have it quite a bit closer. The Cardinal have played the majority of their games at home. The Spartans have played a much tougher schedule so far and I might regret it, but will take San Jose +17 in this one.

Western Michigan at Manhattan: Manhattan is favored by 4 and I have them taking a one-point victory in this one.

Georgia at Arizona State: Pretty good game here, as the Sun Devils opened 5 and are now 4 even though ASU is getting close to two-thirds of the wagers in the game. I have ASU winning by 16 but will respect the line move a little bit and just stay away.

Eastern Illinois at Wisconsin-Milwaukee: Milwaukee is favored by 2.5 and I have Eastern Illinois winning by 5, but no interest in this one due to Eastern padding their numbers against some teams they shouldn’t be playing.

Northern Colorado at Wyoming: Another game where the numbers probably don’t tell the true story of a team, as Northern Colorado is favored by 6 and I have them winning by 25, but they put a beating on teams like Northern New Mexico and Collorado College.

NAU at Utah Valley: More of the same here, as Utah Valley opened 9.5 and the line is down to 7.5 with the Lumberjacks getting the vast majority of the wagers, but NAU has also beaten up some crappy teams.

Cal Davis at San Diego: San Diego is favored by 7.5 and I have them winning by 7.

Fresno at Cal Poly: Fresno is favored by 8.5 and I have them winning by 4 in a game Cal Poly is getting two-thirds of the wagers in.

Gonzaga at Arizona: Arizona is favored by 2.5 and I have them winning this one by 9.

St. Mary’s at California: St. Mary’s is favored by 8.5 and I them winning by just one in a game with pretty even betting.

END OF DEC. 14 PICKS

 

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