You Are Here: / / Consensus and The NFL
  • How the Consensus Reports apply when handicapping the NFL

    In previous articles we discussed what the consensus report is and the theories behind it that make it a valuable handicapping tool. We then covered where to find the best versions of the consensus reports and the pitfalls to avoid when using them as a handicapping tool. These combined make for great resources to make money betting sports using the consensus report as a handicapping tool but this is just the start of things. Since each sport is different when it comes to the handicapping aspect it only makes sense that each sport is different when it comes to using the consensus report. To drive this point home, the real consensus report will break down each sport and how the consensus numbers affect them and can be used to handicap. To start this series of reports off, the sports to start with is the most popular sport, the NFL.

    Sports bettors flock from all corners of the globe to bet on every sport imaginable depending on their location. From baseball, to horses to cricket, everyone likes to bet on sports. The most popular of all the sports to bet on is the National Football League. Each year the NFL’s Superbowl is the most watched and wagered on game. So it makes plenty of sense to realize that this is also the hardest sport to handicap. With this in mind every handicapping that a sports bettor can find is important and the consensus report is no different. In fat it is obvious that when all sports are accounted for the NFL is the most important sport to use the consensus report to handicap. This is for many reasons.

    Since NFL Betting is the most popular sport to bet on, more people bet on it and that will lead to a more accurate consensus report. Although the sports bettor should always check the source of where they are acquiring the consensus report if it for the NFL there is a good chance it is most likely a decent report and will have a good sample size. The NFL offers other reason the consensus report will come in handy.

    Sometimes when looking at a tough line it is really hard to figure out how they came about. They are often referred to as a “trap line” because it just looks to good to be true. Well in the NFL there is such a thing as a line that looks off and when you use the line move with the consensus report you can see exactly why the line is set where it is. The oddsmaker just wants to have even action so if the public will put even action on the game he will set the line. So using the consensus to see where the line will be set will help in handicapping a game.

    In the NFL consensus can also be used to forecast a line. The consensus shows the percentage of the public on one side. If there is lopsided action a smart bettor would be able to forecast what direction the line will move and in turn take advantage of when the best line will be available. If the line is at 2.5 for the favorite and the public is on the favorite there is a good chance that the line will get to 3 points. Therefore if you like the same side buying in early could save you from getting a push if the game lands on three. Most handicappers the consensus is just used to fade the public but it also can be a very good line forecaster.

    Not all sports are alike but as this article has clearly demonstrated, the NFL is a good one to use the consensus report with. It provides a good sample size, allows monitoring lines and provides use as a good line forecaster. I truly believe that the consensus report should be a part of your handicapping tool kit when handicapping the NFL.

    Part 6: How To Use the College Football Consensus Report