How the Consensus Reports apply when handicapping NCAA Football
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It’s time to move on with other sports when it comes to the consensus reports. Since we covered the basics of the report to include what it is and the theories that are behind it we don’t need to rehash them. Since everyone is now familiar with how to find a consensus report and how to decipher them it is time to talk about how each individual sport handles the consensus report. In the last article the NFL that was the center of attention. Although college is very similar to the NFL when it comes to the consensus report they have plenty of differences. This is how the consensus report applies when handicapping college football.
As mentioned it has plenty of similarities to the NFL so let’s look at a few of those before we look into the differences. First and foremost, football is the most popular sport to bet on in the United States. While the NFL is the most popular sport overall when it comes to wagering college football is not that far behind. Since they are not that far behind the NFL when it comes to the consensus reports they have plenty in common.
Since they are popular even if you get your consensus report from a place that does not have a decent sample size the consensus report should be usable. Being popular every consensus should give you a good reading but stick with the more populated reports and you will get a very accurate reading of what side the public is on. As always the consensus report should not be used as a stand alone handicapping tool. In the popularity there are other things that make the college football game different than the NFL when it comes to using the football consensus report.
The college football game has some serious turnover. Early in the season the consensus report can be very misleading since it is based off the team from the previous year and not the one the put on the field. Therefore the early consensus can be very valuable for a sports handicapper. This is why it is important to use only a portion of the consensus as a tool. For example this year USC was touted to be one of the best and the Pac-10 champ. If you had done your homework early in the season you would have realized that they will not be so great and had some young players that had to try and grow up fast. Early in the season the consensus was all over USC but if you had done proper research it would have made a bet against USC all the stronger.
The other unique situation for the consensus when concerned with college football is small market games. The consensus is very strong with nationally televised games and big teams playing one another but this takes a change dramatically when two teams face off in a small market. When teams play with less fanfare and less of a following it makes sense that not as many people will bet on it. There fore it makes sense that the numbers will not truly be represented as far as where any type of money is going whether it be money from the public or smart money. Not only that but it will be harder to anticipate that the numbers you get from a consensus site are worthy of using as a handicapping tool. I would throw these games out when using the report and focus on the bigger games.
College football is another sport that the consensus report could be very useful as a handicapping tool however make sure to choose your spots wisely. If as a handicapper you use the report with some knowledge and not blindly it will lead to profits.