We’re 17-10-1 overall on on football so far this season, with our college totals doing most of the damage at 5-0. Our College Football System Plays of the Week fell to 2-3 last week, as Texas Tech waited a little too long to start playing, so we’ll look to even our record this week, as we look at an interesting match-up between LSU and Florida. The Tigers are all over the board here, favored anywhere from 1.5 to 3 at Bovada, although 2 to 2.5 seem to be the most common numbers out there.
The Tigers have taken care of business this season, going 5-0 straight-up and 3-2 against the number, including a victory at Auburn as 10-point underdogs and they also upset the Miami Hurricanes in their opening game of the season. They’ve also had a couple of sacrificial lambs thrown in there, as well.
LSU won last year’s game 17-16, so the Gators are definitely looking for a little revenge in this one and get to play in the ‘The Swamp’ for a second straight season. Last year’s game came down to a missed extra-point and the teams are probably a little more even than the public realizes this season, as the Tigers are No. 5 and the Gators are No. 22, in large part due to a stinker against Kentucky.
Florida is a little better offensively this season than they credit for, particularly through the air, as the Gators have thrown for 13 TDs so far this season and rushed for six more. Feleipe Franks has handled nearly all of the action under center and his completition percentage isn’t quite where you would like it to be, as 57.14%, but he’s only thrown three interceptions and Florida is gaining more than 200 yards through the air, which will help keep teams from lining up 8 in the box.
Florida has won its last three games and home underdogs on at least a two-game winning streak have posted a 129-93-3 (58.1%) record if they held their previous opponent to a touchdown or less. If the home underdog is playing with revenge, the winning ratio increases a little bit, as these teams have gone 90-61-2 (59.6%) over the years.
The Florida Gators are starting to believe in what Mullen is trying to do and starting to believe in themselves, so will go ahead and take Florida as small home underdogs in this spot.