College Football Power Ratings Week 8

 

Last Updated: 2017-10-16

college football power ratings week 8The college football regular season is more than halfway over. We’re seeing lines get a little bit tighter each week, but there are still a lot of opportunities to pick off good numbers early in the week with the help of a good set of power ratings. It was a little bit of a crazy weekend in college football and we should have seen it coming after both Clemson and Washington State went down on Friday night. To a lesser extent, perhaps we should have seen it coming with Troy going down on Wednesday.

It was a particularly bad weekend for the power ratings plays suggested by my numbers. I went 0-for on BetOnline openers, which is incredibly hard to do. Of course, those things are going to happen. Nothing is foolproof. Nothing is immune to variance. Sometimes things just don’t work out the way that we had hoped and that’s how last weekend went on the college football side for me.

I’ve made a lot of adjustments to my numbers as we head into Week 8. I was happy with where they were relative to openers. I missed the BOL numbers this week, but there are a few games worthy of consideration at the current market prices. Once again, the learning process to doing power ratings is something that takes time. It takes a little bit of feel that I haven’t quite developed yet. Not to mention, with 130 teams and the myriad of situational spots and other things that are present in the market, we have to consider so many different things each and every week on a large number of games. There are also a ton of injuries out there right now and information isn’t always readily available on those.

The two biggest hardships I have right now are adjusting to perception and deciding how to allocate adjustments based on the closing number. Perception is always built into the line. I want to have a control against those recency biases, but I also don’t want to be on a team that is a sinking ship because my numbers suggest it. The allocation of adjustments is tricky. If my line is off by five points, was I off on both teams by 2.5 points? Was I off by five points on one team? When dealing around key numbers, these decisions really matter. That’s something that I need to get better with in future seasons and over the rest of this season.

My 1 through 130 has been updated for Week 8:

Rank Team Conference PR HFA
1 Alabama SEC 102.5 4
2 Ohio State Big Ten 96 4
3 Penn State Big Ten 94 4.5
4 Clemson ACC 93.5 4
5 Washington Pac-12 93 3.5
6 Georgia SEC 93 3.5
7 USC Pac-12 90.5 3
8 Stanford Pac-12 90 3.5
9 Oklahoma Big 12 90 3.5
10 Auburn SEC 88.5 3.5
11 Oklahoma State Big 12 87 3
12 Miami FL ACC 87 3
13 TCU Big 12 86.5 3
14 Wisconsin Big Ten 86 3.5
15 Notre Dame Independent 86 3.5
16 Florida State ACC 85 4
17 LSU SEC 84 4
18 Michigan Big Ten 84 4
19 Washington State Pac-12 84 3.5
20 Virginia Tech ACC 83.5 3.5
21 Louisville ACC 83 3.5
22 UCF AAC 83 3
23 NC State ACC 81.5 3
24 South Florida AAC 80.5 3
25 Texas Big 12 80 3
26 Utah Pac-12 80 4
27 Michigan State Big Ten 79.5 3
28 West Virginia Big 12 79.5 3.5
29 UCLA Pac-12 79 3
30 Texas A&M SEC 79 3.5
31 Oregon Pac-12 78.5 3
32 Florida SEC 78 3
33 Mississippi State SEC 78 3
34 Colorado Pac-12 77 4
35 Wake Forest ACC 77 3
36 Georgia Tech ACC 77 3
37 Kansas State Big 12 76 3.5
38 Memphis AAC 76 3
39 Kentucky SEC 76 3
40 San Diego State MWC 75 3
41 Navy AAC 75 3
42 Northwestern Big Ten 75 3
43 Arizona State Pac-12 75 3.5
44 Colorado State MWC 75 3.5
45 Purdue Big Ten 74.5 3
46 Texas Tech Big 12 74.5 3
47 Iowa Big Ten 74.5 3
48 Arizona Pac-12 74 3
49 Duke ACC 74 3
50 Boise State MWC 74 3.5
51 Indiana Big Ten 74 3
52 Toledo MAC 74 3
53 Syracuse ACC 73.5 3
54 Iowa State Big 12 73.5 3
55 Minnesota Big Ten 73 3
56 Appalachian State Sun Belt 72.5 3
57 Virginia ACC 72 3
58 Ole Miss SEC 72 3.5
59 South Carolina SEC 72 3
60 California Pac-12 72 3
61 Nebraska Big Ten 71.5 3
62 Troy Sun Belt 71.5 3
63 Houston AAC 71 3
64 Vanderbilt SEC 71 3
65 Arkansas SEC 70.5 3
66 Tennessee SEC 70 3
67 Maryland Big Ten 70 3
68 Western Michigan MAC 69.5 3
69 Missouri SEC 68.5 3
70 Tulane AAC 68.5 3
71 Boston College ACC 68 3
72 Pitt ACC 68 3
73 Baylor Big 12 67 3
74 Louisiana Tech CUSA 67 3
75 Army Independent 67 3
76 UNC ACC 67 3
77 SMU AAC 67 3
78 Ohio MAC 66.5 3
79 Northern Illinois MAC 66.5 3
80 UTSA CUSA 66 3
81 Air Force MWC 65 3
82 Arkansas State Sun Belt 65 3
83 Eastern Michigan MAC 65 3
84 Middle Tennessee State CUSA 64.5 3
85 Wyoming MWC 64 3.5
86 Oregon State Pac-12 64 3
87 Rutgers Big Ten 63.5 3
88 Western Kentucky CUSA 63 3
89 Tulsa AAC 63 3
90 Marshall CUSA 63 3
91 Utah State MWC 63 3.5
92 New Mexico State Sun Belt 63 3.5
93 Cincinnati AAC 63 3
94 Central Michigan MAC 62 3
95 Fresno State MWC 62 3
96 New Mexico MWC 62 3
97 Florida Atlantic CUSA 62 3
98 BYU Independent 61 4
99 Hawaii MWC 61 4.5
100 Buffalo MAC 61 3
101 Miami Ohio MAC 60.5 3
102 Akron MAC 60.5 3
103 Illinois Big Ten 60 3
104 North Texas CUSA 60 3
105 Southern Miss CUSA 60 3
106 South Alabama Sun Belt 59 3
107 Ball State MAC 59 3
108 Temple AAC 59 3
109 UNLV MWC 57.5 3
110 Louisiana Lafayette Sun Belt 57.5 3
111 UAB CUSA 57 3
112 UMass Independent 57 3
113 Kansas Big 12 55 3
114 Nevada MWC 55 3
115 Bowling Green MAC 55 3
116 Idaho Sun Belt 55 3.5
117 UConn AAC 55 3
118 Florida International CUSA 55 3
119 Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 54.5 3
120 Georgia State Sun Belt 54 3
121 Rice CUSA 53.5 3
122 East Carolina AAC 53 3
123 Old Dominion CUSA 53 3
124 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 53 3
125 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 52 3
126 Texas State Sun Belt 49.5 3
127 Kent State MAC 48 3
128 San Jose State MWC 47 3
129 Charlotte CUSA 47 3
130 UTEP CUSA 45 3.5

Here are the adjustments that I made for Week 8:

Wisconsin -1, Purdue +2, Miami of Ohio -6.5, Bowling Green -2, Ohio +1.5, Central Michigan -1, Eastern Michigan -0.5, Army +0.5, Buffalo +2.5 (temporary, watch QB situation), Temple -3, UNC -4, Virginia +2, Rutgers +1.5, Illinois -1.5, Texas Tech +1, Pitt -2, Michigan -1, UCF +3, Tulane +2, Louisville -2, Boston College +1, Kansas -2, Iowa State +2, Kansas State -3 (Ertz), Marshall +1, Old Dominion -1, UAB +3, Georgia State +1.5, Louisiana-Monroe -1, Appalachian State -1.5, USC -2.5, Utah +1, UCLA -3, Arizona +1.5, Vanderbilt -1.5, Ohio State +2, Nebraska -2, BYU -1, Alabama +1.5, Arkansas -2, Baylor -1, Georgia +2, UTEP -2, Southern Miss +0.5, North Texas +1.5, Texas A&M +3, Florida -1.5, Tennessee -2, LSU +1.5, Michigan State +2.5, Stanford +2, Arizona State +3, South Florida +1.5, Miami -2, Hawaii -1, Clemson -1.5 (Bryant?), Penn State +1, Oregon -2.5, Houston -3

Here are the most notable adjustments:

Miami of Ohio (-6.5, 76th to 101st) – Losing to Kent State is a bad look. Not having Gus Ragland is a big deal for Miami of Ohio, but it feels like this is a team that hasn’t been able to live up to expectations based on the end of last season. Most of this is a Ragland adjustment, but this also just isn’t a good football team right now.

UNC (-4, 66th to 76th) – North Carolina’s injury report reads like the White Pages. That’s a phone book for you crazy millennials out there. The Tar Heels have lost several players to season-ending injuries and have really cut into the roster depth as a result. It’s clear that I had them power-rated incorrectly based on what I had for an opener last week against Virginia. I didn’t play them because I knew the injury situation, but I needed to adjust here.

Houston (-3, 48th to 63rd) – I’m looking to fade Houston. The body of work hasn’t been impressive. The offensive issues really stand out. The defense has been great, but this is a team that I needed to adjust. Ironically, my line is now five points short against Memphis this week in what is an awful spot for the Tigers, but this is more about me taking a position and using my power ratings as the vessel to do that.

Texas A&M (+3, 37th to 30th) – Kevin Sumlin is doing work in College Station. After one of the most embarrassing losses in recent memory in Week 1, the Aggies have been the only team to hang with Alabama and have played well in their other games also. I have adjusted them back up around where they were to start the season and their stock does seem to be rising.

UAB (+3, 120th to 111th) – That is a full touchdown move on UAB over the last two weeks. Knocking off Middle Tennessee State is an impressive grab for the Blazers, who are really on the upswing. They’re believing in themselves and Bill Clark is doing an incredible job in Birmingham. They deserved to move up.

UCF (+3, 26th to 22nd) – Welcome to the Top 25, UCF. This team just keeps on impressing me. With a power rating of 83, UCF is now up 14.5 points since my initial numbers. I was probably way too low on them coming into the year, but this team is legit. Scott Frost might as well start boxing up some of his possessions because he’ll have a new job soon.

UCLA (-3, 22nd to 29th) – I’m pretty sure that I’m still too high on UCLA, but my number was off last week against Arizona and an adjustment needed to be made. They’re such a high-variance team with a QB like Josh Rosen and a defense like theirs that I have had a lot of issues adequately rating them this year. Sometimes you’ll come across teams like that and you won’t really know what to do with them. They’re one of them for me.

Temple (-3, 95th to 108th) – The first season of the Geoff Collins era has been a disaster. Temple has fallen 10.5 points in my power ratings since Week 1. It has been disappointment after disappointment each week for this team and I needed to reflect that.

Here are the raw number power ratings positions for Week 8:

Memphis -2 (+3) at Houston – The spot is terrible for the Tigers, but the numbers are off on this game. We’re actually seeing a bit of Memphis money hit the board early this morning, so you may want to pounce on this one before all of the +3s are gone.

Middle Tennessee State -4 (+3) vs. Marshall – The Blue Raiders have been a real high-variance team this season because of turnovers. Marshall doesn’t have the most impressive body of work and my numbers seem to be behind on them. Either that or my position is right because Marshall has played a very weak schedule and I haven’t adjusted them aggressively as a result. I have already taken MTSU down 4.5 points this season and they still show value this week.

Northwestern -4.5 (-1.5) vs. Iowa – Northwestern hasn’t lived up to expectations this season, but Iowa hasn’t exactly played inspired football either. This number opened Iowa -1 at Bookmaker and the favorite has already flipped towards my numbers and I doubt the movement is done.

Bowling Green +8.5 (+13.5) vs. Northern Illinois – My numbers like Bowling Green again this week. That was an unmitigated disaster last week. I won’t play this one, but it should be mentioned because of the disparity.

Penn State -14.5 (-9.5) vs. Michigan – The Penn State line is crashing a bit early in the week with a move down from 12.5 to as low as 9.5 out there in the market. It is a sharp move showing up at Pinnacle and The Greek, but my numbers have Penn State as a play this week. I think the expectation here is for a lower-scoring game, which is why the line is adjusting down. If I adjust my numbers for what should be a reasonable total, I’d probably be closer to the 12.5 opener. There’s still value if you can grab a rogue 9.5.

Rice +15.5 (+21.5) at UTSA – UTSA is a team that I have struggled to rate this season. They made a bowl game last year and started the season with some hype, but lost it quickly. My guess here is that I’m a bit too high on Rice, which is surprising because they are so far down my power ratings anyway.

Louisiana Tech -10 (-3) vs. Southern Miss – This is the second straight week that my number has been way off on Southern Miss. Louisiana Tech is not a good team this season and maybe my 2.5-point adjustment from the start of the season has been too low. It isn’t a big surprise to me that I’m off on some Conference USA teams. It is probably my weakest conference in general.

San Diego State -16 (-10) vs. Fresno State – The Aztecs were owned in the trenches by Boise State last weekend and it sort of felt like one of those games that we expected because of how the season has played out. Some regression was coming. I’ve adjusted Fresno State up a lot. Maybe I haven’t moved SDSU down enough, but they’ve conquered every bad spot this season and have beaten some really good teams. I think this is about the Fresno State hype train getting out of control. Last week, Fresno was bet against heavily and crushed New Mexico. Maybe they’re just a lot better than expected, but I’m sensing some major recency bias.

 

-END OF WEEK 8 UPDATE-

 

With the start of a new week comes a new set of college football power ratings. It was certainly an interesting weekend with some huge upsets, some notable blowouts, and some bounce back performances. Taking stock of each team week after week is a tiring exercise, but it is one that can be extremely profitable and productive if done correctly. We’ve been trying to do that here this season. It has been easier said than done, but this experience is something that will hopefully benefit readers as much as it has benefitted me.

It’s always good to clarify that power ratings are a way to jump on early-week lines and, hopefully, project line moves. You still have to do your matchup and situational analysis and look for those opportunities to cash winning tickets by doing the traditional methods of handicapping.

The first thing that you will notice is that I went ahead and did it. My scale for preseason power ratings only goes up to 100. Well, Alabama has crossed that mark. I’ve also made some more aggressive adjustments about some of the teams that I have been slow to adjust this season, as you will read after the master list of power ratings.

Let’s take a look at my 1 through 130 for Week 7:

Rank Team Conference PR HFA
1 Alabama SEC 101 4
2 Clemson ACC 95 4
3 Ohio State Big Ten 94 4
4 USC Pac-12 93 3
5 Washington Pac-12 93 3.5
6 Penn State Big Ten 93 4.5
7 Georgia SEC 91 3.5
8 Oklahoma Big 12 90 3.5
9 Miami FL ACC 89 3
10 Auburn SEC 88.5 3.5
11 Stanford Pac-12 88 3.5
12 Oklahoma State Big 12 87 3
13 Wisconsin Big Ten 87 3.5
14 TCU Big 12 86.5 3
15 Notre Dame Independent 86 3.5
16 Michigan Big Ten 85 4
17 Florida State ACC 85 4
18 Louisville ACC 85 3.5
19 Washington State Pac-12 84 3.5
20 Virginia Tech ACC 83.5 3.5
21 LSU SEC 82.5 4
22 UCLA Pac-12 82 3
23 NC State ACC 81.5 3
24 Oregon Pac-12 81 3
25 Texas Big 12 80 3
26 UCF AAC 80 3
27 Florida SEC 79.5 3
28 West Virginia Big 12 79.5 3.5
29 Kansas State Big 12 79 3.5
30 South Florida AAC 79 3
31 Utah Pac-12 79 4
32 Mississippi State SEC 78 3
33 Colorado Pac-12 77 4
34 Wake Forest ACC 77 3
35 Georgia Tech ACC 77 3
36 Michigan State Big Ten 77 3
37 Texas A&M SEC 76 3.5
38 Memphis AAC 76 3
39 Kentucky SEC 76 3
40 San Diego State MWC 75 3
41 Navy AAC 75 3
42 Northwestern Big Ten 75 3
43 Colorado State MWC 75 3.5
44 Iowa Big Ten 74.5 3
45 Appalachian State Sun Belt 74 3
46 Duke ACC 74 3
47 Boise State MWC 74 3.5
48 Houston AAC 74 3
49 Indiana Big Ten 74 3
50 Toledo MAC 74 3
51 Texas Tech Big 12 73.5 3
52 Syracuse ACC 73.5 3
53 Nebraska Big Ten 73.5 3
54 Minnesota Big Ten 73 3
55 Arkansas SEC 72.5 3
56 Vanderbilt SEC 72.5 3
57 Arizona State Pac-12 72.5 3.5
58 Purdue Big Ten 72.5 3
59 Arizona Pac-12 72.5 3
60 Tennessee SEC 72 3
61 Ole Miss SEC 72 3.5
62 South Carolina SEC 72 3
63 California Pac-12 72 3
64 Iowa State Big 12 71.5 3
65 Troy Sun Belt 71.5 3
66 UNC ACC 71 3
67 Pitt ACC 70 3
68 Virginia ACC 70 3
69 Maryland Big Ten 70 3
70 Western Michigan MAC 69.5 3
71 Missouri SEC 68.5 3
72 Baylor Big 12 68 3
73 Louisiana Tech CUSA 67 3
74 Boston College ACC 67 3
75 SMU AAC 67 3
76 Miami Ohio MAC 67 3
77 Northern Illinois MAC 66.5 3
78 Army Independent 66.5 3
79 Tulane AAC 66.5 3
80 UTSA CUSA 66 3
81 Air Force MWC 65 3
82 Arkansas State Sun Belt 65 3
83 Ohio MAC 65 3
84 Middle Tennessee State CUSA 64.5 3
85 Eastern Michigan MAC 64.5 3
86 Wyoming MWC 64 3.5
87 Oregon State Pac-12 64 3
88 Western Kentucky CUSA 63 3
89 Tulsa AAC 63 3
90 Central Michigan MAC 63 3
91 Utah State MWC 63 3.5
92 New Mexico State Sun Belt 63 3.5
93 Cincinnati AAC 63 3
94 Hawaii MWC 62 4.5
95 Temple AAC 62 3
96 Rutgers Big Ten 62 3
97 BYU Independent 62 4
98 Marshall CUSA 62 3
99 Fresno State MWC 62 3
100 New Mexico MWC 62 3
101 Florida Atlantic CUSA 62 3
102 Illinois Big Ten 61.5 3
103 Akron MAC 60.5 3
104 Southern Miss CUSA 59.5 3
105 South Alabama Sun Belt 59 3
106 Ball State MAC 59 3
107 Buffalo MAC 58.5 3
108 North Texas CUSA 58.5 3
109 UNLV MWC 57.5 3
110 Louisiana Lafayette Sun Belt 57.5 3
111 Bowling Green MAC 57 3
112 Kansas Big 12 57 3
113 UMass Independent 57 3
114 Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 55.5 3
115 Nevada MWC 55 3
116 Idaho Sun Belt 55 3.5
117 UConn AAC 55 3
118 Florida International CUSA 55 3
119 Old Dominion CUSA 54 3
120 UAB CUSA 54 3
121 Rice CUSA 53.5 3
122 East Carolina AAC 53 3
123 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 53 3
124 Georgia State Sun Belt 52.5 3
125 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 52 3
126 Texas State Sun Belt 49.5 3
127 Kent State MAC 48 3
128 San Jose State MWC 47 3
129 Charlotte CUSA 47 3
130 UTEP CUSA 47 3.5

Here are this week’s adjustments:

Georgia Southern -2, BYU -3, Tulsa -3.5, Tulane +2, Auburn +2.5, Ole Miss -3, Texas Tech +1.5, Oklahoma -2.5, Temple -1.5, Georgia +4.5, Vanderbilt -2.5, Penn State +2.5, Eastern Michigan +1.5, Virginia +2, Syracuse +2, Pitt -3, Miami +1.5, Florida State -0.5, Akron -1.5, Air Force +1.5, Navy -1, Purdue +1.5, Florida -3.5, Arkansas -2.5, New Mexico State +2, Notre Dame +1, Kent State -1.5, UAB +4, Louisiana Tech -1.5, Ohio State +1, Colorado State +1, Old Dominion -2, Charlotte -2, Texas +3, Southern Miss -2, Alabama +2, Missouri +1.5, Miami OH -1.5, San Jose State -3, Fresno State +2, Michigan -2.5, Michigan State +2.5, UCF +2, Western Kentucky -5, Arizona +1.5, Oregon -1.5, Hawaii -2, Nevada +2, Washington +1

Here are the biggest movers for Week 7:

Western Kentucky (-5, from 73rd to 88th) – I wanted to give Mike Sanford the benefit of the doubt. He inherited a pretty good team from Jeff Brohm and a lot of talent, in a relative sense to Conference USA. With this move, which should have been done previously, the Hilltoppers are now down 8.5 points from where I had them before the season. Nearly losing to UTEP with all the turnover and turmoil going on with that program is a really, really bad look.

Georgia (+4.5, from 14th to 7th) – I don’t know why I was slow to give Georgia the respect that it deserves. The offense is much better with Jake Fromm at quarterback and the defense is elite. Kirby Smart is doing some work in Athens. Georgia is clearly a top-10 team across the board and now finally rests in the top 10 of my power ratings. My UGA spread is still light this week.

UAB (+4, from 125th to 120th) – UAB is probably my favorite story of the season right now. The Blazers knocked off Louisiana Tech with a field goal block late in the game to get halfway to bowl eligibility. This may be more of an indictment on LA Tech and all the losses that they experienced from last year’s team, but the Blazers have impressed me. It was hard to rate them coming into the season with so many transfers and guys that hadn’t been playing, but they’re getting better as the season goes along.

Florida (-3.5, from 21st to 27th) – This just is not a good football team right now. Losing to LSU at home is not a good look, even though the Tigers clearly have talent. Jim McElwain is squandering some talent and is having a hard time keeping the program in tact. It’s hard because you have to respect the talent level, but, also, you have to be realistic about how that talent is being used.

Tulsa (-3.5, from 80th to 89) – The Golden Hurricane got blown away by Tulane in the first half this past week. It seems like the losses of skill position talent have been too much for Philip Montgomery’s team to overcome. Chad President has never gotten comfortable as the quarterback and the defense has regressed in a big way. Tulsa is now down 11 points since where I had them to start the season.

Texas (+3, from 33rd to 25th) – This is more of a market correction than anything else. I’m going to assume that my issue was being low on Texas rather than high on Kansas State. My number last week was -1 and it closed higher than that, so I needed to make an adjustment. Because Kansas State played well in the overtime loss, I opted to adjust Texas. We’ll see if that was the right move.

We’ve got a few numbers grab power rating plays to hop on for this week, but my numbers were much closer to the openers than last week:

Cal +9 (+14.5) vs. Washington State – This is a horrible spot for Wazzu. They are back on the road for a second straight week off of wins over USC and Oregon. My guess here with regards to why my line is off by so much is that I haven’t adjusted Cal based on their conference performance. They were great in non-conference, but are 0-3 and have been outscored 113-51 in Pac-12 play. Still, this one should come down before kickoff with spot players taking Cal

Miami of Ohio -16 (-11.5) at Kent State – Miami of Ohio is not living up to preseason expectations, but Kent State is in shambles right now. Add in a Redhawks team looking to bounce back from a bad loss last week and I think we’re looking at a good value grab here.

Edit: Gus Ragland is doubtful for Miami of Ohio, which would be about a six-point adjustment to the number. Keep an eye on the latest with his injury status.

Bowling Green +5 (+9.5) vs. Ohio – This is two-fold. Ohio isn’t as good as I thought and Bowling Green seems to be better than I thought. Maybe I have soured too much on Ohio, and Bowling Green did just get its first win, but this line still looks too high to me for an Ohio team that has a lot of issues scoring points.

West Virginia -9.5 (-4.5) vs. Texas Tech – Once again, my Texas Tech number is off. I just don’t see any reason to have Texas Tech up 15 spots in my PRs to have a line like this. The defense under new DC David Gibbs is doing some serious work this season, but I’m a big believer in West Virginia and I’ll be on them this week, even with the line moving against me. I’m not all over this Texas Tech hype.

There are other games with teams like LSU and Nebraska, but I’m not really interested in stepping in front of Auburn or Ohio State. There are a lot of situations where I’ll simply play my numbers, but there are some other considerations that have to be made as well. I may simply not have a good pulse on a team and by looking on a week-by-week basis, I can see which teams those are, where I’m regularly off, and just write those games off. I don’t like to do that, but one key element of bankroll management is understanding when the risk is too great because of variance. With the learning curve for power ratings, I’m trying to keep my risk profile responsible.

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