If only it was as easy as having a good set of Power Ratings, watching the market as it gradually sways towards your predicted spread, still getting out ahead of the market, coming away with closing line value, and all of it coalescing into winning day. We all know that it’s not that easy and starting off the season 0-3 with our Power Ratings Plays is a humbling reminder of that over-arching truth.
If a situational handicap of the matchup or further analysis of the market got you off the plays, then kudos, because there should be times when other factors lead you astray from Power Ratings Plays. But we can’t get overly excited or reactive over a single point of data; and that is essentially the theme of week 2 is College Football betting, one in which a lot of value is created for those that aren’t prisoners of the moment.
Of course, some adjustments will be made: when it’s clearly obvious that a team just isn’t going to live up to, or has without doubt, exceeded its preseason expectation. But these, as you can see in Adam’s Week 2 Power Ratings, are minimal and slight. What you’ll often find in week 2, is that the market will over-adjust on quite a few teams, thus creating the value, that a well-crafted set of Power Ratings will most likely point out.
Therefore, with a new slate in sight, a rough week behind us, and the entire season ahead of us, it is with a confident optimism that we tread onward with our Week 2 Power Ratings Plays of the Week.
Florida Atlantic vs. Air Force
Off shore Consensus Open: FAU -7.5 -110
Off-shore Consensus Line: FAU -9 -110
Bang the Book’s Power Rating line: FAU -14
In a great spot to capitalize off a potential over-reaction in the marketplace, Florida Atlantic is catching the minority of the action at 45%, and yet the line is on the move upward, towards our Power Rating Number of FAU -14. With our number at 14, and the number where it’s at currently, a lot of value is yet to be had on the Owls, with the market currently at a consensus of nine, still two secondary key numbers away from our line of 14.
The market seems quite stable with nearly every major off-shore book at FAU -9, save for Pinnacle, who is offering a reduced -106 on both sides. Though it is mildly concerning to be able to get a reduced price at the sharpest of the books, we still are looking a lot of line value here, and with the number still yet to cross through any key numbers, not much value has been lost from open. The move against consensus suggests a hint of some sharp action on FAU, and our Power Rating is in-agreement here.
Old Dominion vs. FIU
Off shore Consensus Opener: Old Dominion 2 -110
Off-shore Consensus Line: Old Dominion -1.5 -110
Bang the Book’s Power Rating line: Old Dominion -4.5
Though certainly not the sexiest of games on the board, it is off-the-radar games such as these often hold the most value. Opening at FIU -2, 64% of the action has come in on the Monarchs, and the line has responded in turn, with Old Dominion now the favorite. In such a low-profile game, I’d be hesitant to consider much of the consensus “public”, and more apt to deem most action on this game sharper than you’d see on one in prime-time.
It may appear at first glance that a lot of value would have already been lost on the Monarchs, but this number has yet to cross through any key numbers and with our line at 4.5, we have line value through a primary key and the secondary four. Though only three points, this is one of the more significant three points of value you can have on a number, going through 3 and 4.
The off-shore market is currently showing a mixture of 1.5’s and twos, with even a few ones remaining, but seeing BetCris and The Greek as two of those books at two, a sharper lean towards the now favorite here is fairly evident. Therefore, if looking to back the Monarchs, I think this is a situation where you’d prefer to get your bet in sooner rather than later, because with 2’s starting to show, you’d definitely hate to miss out on a number under three, if threes began to surface.
Louisiana-Monroe @ Southern Miss
Off shore Consensus Open: ULM 7.5-110
Off-shore Consensus Line: ULM 5.5 -110
Bang the Book’s Power Rating line: ULM 0.5
For what is a 50/50 split in bet consensus on another low-profile game, this is a pretty significant move, for this number to crash all the way through the primary key of seven. Our Power Rating would suggest that the market is correct to have made such a bold move, however, as we have this number at nearly Pick ‘em. With our predicted line on the other side of the two primary keys, this is about as strong as a numerical advantage you’ll find from professionally prepared Power Ratings.
With Bovada the only book left at 6, it couldn’t be more obvious that UL-Monroe is the preferred side here among influential bettors, and if you can still find a 6 out there, you might as well just bet that on principle. Most of the market is currently posting 5.5’s, with BetOnline juicing the Monroe side at -115, and BetCris joining Bookmaker as two of the only major off-shores to be showing five.
The 5.5 is in a dead zone, so there isn’t a huge rush to get to the window here, but you’ll want to watch this number closely and see if it begins to approach six or four. If falling towards four, and wanting to join in on the action, be sure to get something above four, and if a few sixes show and the consensus is still within the dead zone, be sure to snatch up that secondary key.