Last Updated: 2019-11-15
The betting market has been abuzz for Week 12 in college football. Even though lines are tight, especially when compared to power ratings across the board, there is still value to be had according to those influential parties that move lines around.
A lot of the movement at this time of the year comes in on totals based on weather forecasts. Teams making some switches because of injury or with an eye on the future can have an impact as well, but make sure you are scrolling through the weather situations.
Our focus is mostly sides here in the Market Report, but try to get out in front of those totals moves whenever you can. It may take some gambling and guesswork on the weather forecast, but you can also pick up a lot of situations in which unders or overs are steamed with regularity on some of these programs.
Here is the College Football Market Report for Week 12:
315/316 Louisiana Tech at Marshall – The long-rumored suspensions have been made public for Louisiana Tech, including QB J’Mar Smith. The line swung early in the week from -2.5 to -5 based on speculation and some inside information. The line is now all the way up to 6.5. It wouldn’t be a total stunner to see -7 as more recreational bettors get involved in the game.
319/320 West Virginia at Kansas State – We’re starting to see this line move a little bit. The silence can be deafening with some of these games sometimes, but this one where it was just a waiting game. West Virginia hadn’t announced a starting quarterback as of Friday morning, but a lot of bettors are hoping for Jarret Doege. Either way, this is a bad spot for Kansas State. Bookmaker was the first to go to 13.5 and BetOnline is 14 with -115 on the road Mountaineers. 5Dimes and Matchbook have extra juice that way as well. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see 13.5 here. If Doege is announced over Austin Kendall, it may even go to 13.
323/324 Tulane at Temple – We’ve seen an end to the Tulane money, as this line has stopped at 5.5 and some shops have even come back down off of 6. The line opened 3.5, so we haven’t seen too many moves through ultra important numbers in college football, but Tulane is back to being a popular sharp side and they have been good ATS on the season. Keep an eye on this in future weeks with Tulane taking money.
325/326 Indiana at Penn State – Penn State and the over have been popular bets so far. Indiana OC Kalen DeBoer is highly thought of in the market and the Hoosiers have played some higher-scoring games. Indiana is stepping up in class here and the markets have responded by moving Penn State from 13 or 14 up to 14.5. We haven’t seen anything more than that at most places, but there are some books threatening to go up to -15. This is a well-defined sharp vs. public split game from a side standpoint.
335/336 Minnesota at Iowa – We’ve seen no movement off of -3 in this game throughout the week. The juice has moved around on either side, but no 3.5s or 2.5s have popped as of yet. Public support is on Minnesota, but the line still hasn’t moved. Sharp money on Iowa is balancing out the counts or the books are worried about Iowa money hitting the board at -3 even money or -3 -105. Given that Iowa is actually at extra juice at several places, this is also a well-defined sharp vs. public split. Some sharp money has probably come in and the juice suggests more is coming.
337/338 Wake Forest at Clemson – Clemson lines are going through the roof these days. Back-to-back 30-point favorite roles for the Tigers haven’t been enough, as the lines have gone up again this week. Clemson is now -34. Last week, Clemson was in this range as a road favorite against NC State. There is a lot of support for Clemson to run it up again this week and this will be a thing in the team’s remaining games.
343/344 UMass at Northwestern – How bad is UMass? Seriously. Northwestern has gone from -38 to -41.5 as a team that has scored 100 points in nine games this season. The books still can’t get money on UMass. Sad!
345/346 Troy at Texas State – Ah, we have Texas State sharp money again. Sharps are not infallible. They are right more often than they are wrong, but there is an element of stubbornness to backing bad teams sometimes. Texas State remains a bad team. Everything says that the Bobcats should be better, but they just haven’t been. Perhaps it changes this week. Sharp money has driven the line down from 8.5 to 7 across most of the market and Bookmaker opted to be the first book to go to 6.5 and try and get something back on Troy. Public bettors won’t save the books here, so they’ll either be rooting for Troy or dropping the number until they get Troy money.
353/354 Wyoming at Utah State – Another week, another fade of Utah State. This is a contrast to the previous game. Sharp bettors are buying on a bad team in hopes that they get better. It seems like these consistent fades seem to work out more favorably. When the sharp bettors isolate a team performing below expectations, they pounce. That is the case here with Utah State and money has come in against the Aggies a lot. Remember, Boise State took an avalanche of money last week against Wyoming and never came close to the cover.
357/358 Navy at Notre Dame – We’ve seen a lot of interest in backing Navy in this game. The line has come down from double digits to as low as 7 with -115 on the favorite. This appears to be both sharp and public money on the Navy side, at least for now. Something tells me that Notre Dame buyback is going to be coming back in and that 7.5 will be the prevailing number as we head into kickoff.
369/370 South Carolina at Texas A&M – This seems like an odd time for a wave of Texas A&M steam. Perhaps somebody is out injured for South Carolina, but the Aggies got bet up from 10.5 or 11 to as high as 12.5 in the market. Considering that the first books to go to 12.5 were Pinnacle and Matchbook, this was a sharp move in nature. SC star WR Bryan Edwards was hurt last week, which could be something worth watching as we go forward.
371/372 Georgia at Auburn – The Bulldogs are a three-point favorite against the Tigers. Georgia moved from 2.5 to 3 very early in the week and then nothing changed. The line has sat there all week long. We have seen some vig movements on either side, mostly ranging from -115 on Georgia to -115 on Auburn, but that has been about it. It seems like this game is getting some excellent two-way action on both sides at the 3. It would take something significantly sharp to drive this number to 2.5 or 3.5 and I just don’t think that is going to happen.
381/382 Oklahoma at Baylor – Oklahoma is all the way up to -11 at some places now against Baylor. The public is fairly split on the game, but the quant crowd is in love with Oklahoma’s yards per play differential and that has been enough to pump this game up from -9 to as high as -11. Most of the market is sitting on 10.5. It will be interesting to see if sharp Baylor money does come in on this game or not. So far, we haven’t seen it, but there wasn’t much incentive to grab Baylor prior to now. This one merits watching, as you would expect.
383/384 Memphis at Houston – This line took some early quant/sharp action at the start of the week as well, as Memphis went up from 9 to 10.5. That has been a stopping point so far. Houston has been far more competitive than most people expected. Memphis has been a popular sharp team over the last few seasons. They are again this week, but the holding pattern at 10.5 with the public heavily on Memphis makes me wonder if something sharp is going to come the other way.
387/388 Michigan State at Michigan – It is rather interesting to see 13.5 as the prevailing number in the market. This line opened 14 or 14.5 and sat there most of the week, but some nibbles on Sparty have bumped this number down below two touchdowns. This doesn’t seem like anything overly sharp in nature, just some action and maybe some deeper-pocketed bets on Michigan State. This is an early kickoff on Saturday, so we’ll see if it makes it down to 13, goes back to 14, or hangs tight at 13.5.
393/394 Rice at Middle Tennessee – Remember the three-week period when Rice was a sharp darling, taking a bunch of money? Those days are gone. There aren’t key numbers in the teens, but a move from 11.5 to 14.5 on Middle Tennessee is rather interesting, especially given how Rice was treated earlier in the year. MTSU has been doing more designed QB runs and they’ve been having success with it. It sure seems like sharp bettors have caught on and like what they’ve seen.
397/398 Alabama at Mississippi State – It seems like there are some rumblings that Mac Jones will start for Alabama. That’s what this line move would suggest anyway. Alabama went from -19.5 to as low as -17.5 in the market. That would seem at least somewhat consistent with a QB announcement coming down the pike. Of course, Tua at like 75-80% is probably worth a two-point downgrade in a vacuum. In any event, this line movement does suggest that we won’t see Tua this week.
399/400 Wisconsin at Nebraska – Wisconsin took some sharp money early in the week to go from 12.5 to as high as 15 in the market. This one has reached a stopping point north of two touchdowns, but we have not seen any indication that Nebraska money is coming back as of yet. Sharp and public bettors are going the same way, so if we don’t see anything on Nebraska, 15 or 16 could very well be coming.
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