We’re down to the final college basketball totals play of the year and while I hate to use the same game for both a side and total wager, it worked out well enough for us last time, when San Francisco defeated North Texas State and we got the side and total.
Anyway, the total on this one is holding at 145 despite more over wagers than under, as well as more money on the over, as well.
This game is going to come down to pace and despite their lofty scoring average, Villanova doesn’t really play all that quickly, ranking No. 154 in adjusted tempo. You don’t need as many possessions when you’re hitting 50% from the floor and 40% from 3-point range. The Wildcats are solid from the foul line, as well, hitting 77.9%.
Villanova can play defense, although they haven’t had many games where it was a deciding factor, essentially it’s been a matter of trying to slow down the opposition a little bit and let the offense do what it does best. The Wildcats were a little better defensively on the road.
The Wolverines are a little better than advertised when it comes to shooting the ball and don’t really have much of a drop when they’re away from home, hitting 46.4% from the floor and 36.2% from 3-point range. Michigan doesn’t grab many offensive rebounds, so don’t get too many second chances for points, but they are fairly good about limiting turnovers.
Michigan is No. 324 in adjusted tempo and would prefer a game in the 60s, which ultimately is going to come down to their defense, which has been solid in the post-season, holding teams to 58.4 points in their last five games. Not only do the Wolverines limit foes to a lower shooting percentage, they also limit the number of shots they get with their pace, which is why they were able to hold their last 14 opponents to less than 73 points.
Michigan’s only chance in this one is to slow things down and get Villanova to play their tempo, as the Wolverines will not win a back-and-forth game, as they don’t have the shooters the Wildcats posses, while Villanova can play a slower-paced game and still come away with a victory, so from that standpoint have to thnk the under may be the right side, even though I made this one at 148 points.
With the public on the over pretty good, will do the usual and go the other way and tab the under 145.