Totals haven’t been kind to us the past few days, but will check in with three for tonight, as we have a couple of interesting games on the slate.
Gonzaga vs. Florida State: Two goodd shooting teams and two teams that have decent defensive numbers, with the Bulldogs getting the nod in both areas against easier competition. The Zags are favored by 5.5 and the total is now 153.5 after opening at 154 and dropping to 152 and now reversing course. Florida State and Gonzaga rank No. 1 and No. 3 in adjusted tempo among the 16 teams remaining in the tournament with FSU averaging 71.5 possessions and the Bulldogs averaging 69.5. The NCAA average was 68.2, so we can expect about 70 possessions if the two take a few more seconds to get off shots due to the magnitude of the game. Totals of 150 and higher are 7-7-1 this season and 53.1% long-term, so a slight advantage to the over and as much as I hate to, will have to go that way in this one and hope to see both teams make some shots.
Sam Houston State at UTSA: The Roadrunners are favored by 4 and the total is up to 148.5. UTSA likes to run and Sam Houston doesn’t, so this will come down to which teams is able to control the tempo to their liking. The two teams are both above average on the defensive end and neither shoots that great, but have posted their averages primarily due to the styles they play. Sam Houston averages 59 shot attempts against teams who allow 58, while UTSA averages 64 against teams who allow 60, but on defense Sam Houston State allows 54 shots to teams averaging 58 and UTSA allows 60 to teams who average 59. San aNtonio was 1-9 in home totals this year and will look for that to continue and take the under.
Campbell vs. San Francisco: It’s not often San Francisco gets a strength of schedule advantage in the post-season, but they get a decent one here, as they’re favored by 9 and the total is146.5 and I have them winning 77-66. Campbell shoots better from the field, although that was against softer teams and they were also much better at home, while San Francisco gets a decent advantage on defense by holding better teams to a lower shooting percentage. Think the Dons have too many athletes for Campbell and will look to shut them down, so will have to side with the under in this one, as well.