We enter Day 2 of the NCAA Tournament and we saw a number of games come down to the wire yesterday, at least from a betting perspective, which is a good reminder to always shop for the best lines. Some strange movement in a few of the games, with some decent reverse movement, but totals move on much less money than sides, so you can’t always read a lot into it.
Georgia State vs. Cincinnati: The total has moved from 127.5 to 130 in this one even though there are a few more under wagers than overs and I’m not too sure the line move is correct. Both teams play solid defense, holding foes to under 40% shooting, although the Bearcats’ numbers are much more impressive considering the opposition they faced in contrast to Georgia State. Both teams played lower-scoring games on the road than at home and are below average in tempo, so will have to take the under in this one.
Texas Southern vs. Xavier: The total here is a lofty 160 after opening at 163.5, but I have Xavier hitting triple digits in this one and will go ahead and take the over, even though we were done in by a similar game yesterday, as Duke gave us our lone totals loss by scoring 2 points in the final four minutes. Texas Southern plays uptempo and don’t think they’ll change anything here, as only five teams in the tournament play at a quicker pace. That should be fine with Xavier, who doesn’t mind running up and down the court themselves, so will go ahead with the over in this one.
Arkansas vs. Butler: Good game here, as Butler is a small favorite and the total is 151. As I’ve mentioned before with Arkansas, their 3-point shooting will likely be the difference in where the total lands. Butler allowed 37.4% on 3-pointers during the year and is above average shooting long range themselves. Will need a fair number of 3-pointers to fall here, but I have both teams reaching 80 points and will have to nab the over in this one.
New Mexico State vs. Clemson: Plenty of people are expecting State to give the Tigers a good battle here and it could turn out to be a pretty good game. The total has pretty much stayed around its opening number of 133 and with both teams quite a bit better than average defensively, will tab the under in this one.