A bigger slate of games for Tuesday and hopefully we’ll be able to come up with a decent play or two, even though we still have less of a margin that we’d like to see on most games and a red flag on the game with the biggest difference between our total and the line.
Game 540, Northern Iowa at Valparaiso: Strange movement in this one, as the total opened at 127.5 and has climbed to 130 despite relatively even betting on the game. I have this one 60-59 in favor of the home team, although I’m not real thrilled with the line movement here. Both teams are pretty solid on defense, so it was a bit of a surprise to see the first meeting between the two end up Northern Iowa 81-76. It’s unlikely either team will shoot as well as they did in the first game, nor will Northern Iowa likely get another 38 free throws, but the total is pretty low in this one.
Game 538, New Mexico at Wyoming: The total in this opened at 159 and it’s dropped to 158, as roughly 60% of the bets are coming in on the under. The teams played a 141-point game earlier in the season and while neither team shot the ball poorly, there were a ton of turnovers in the game, which likely cut down the number of attempts. New Mexico had 20 turnovers and Wyoming had 18 and the teams combined for 103 field goal attempts. The previous time they played last season saw 124 field goals attempted and the teams each average 60 or more field goals. I made this game 83-82 for New Mexico, so have a 7-point difference to the over.
Game 506, Rutgers at Ohio State: The total her opened at 128 and has moved to 129, with a slight majority of the bets on the over, but the numbers disagree and are calling for 123 points. Rutgers plays decent defense, as does Ohio State, it’s a matter of scoring for Rutgers. Ohio State won the first meeting 68-46.
Game 530, St. Louis at Dayton: The final game where we have a 5-point difference between our projection and the line is St. Louis at Daytona, as the total opened at 135 and has stayed there despite two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 130 points, so will side with the under in this spot,