A decent start with our college basketball totals on Saturday, going 3-1, and we’ll come back with four more plays today, although we don’t quite have as large of margins between our projections and the line. That’s to be expected with a smaller slate of games.
Remember, these are statistical-based projections only, with no trends involved. Once the tournament fields are announced, we’ll be able to delve into games a little more indepth, but for now, it’s simply too time consuming due to the number of teams.
Game 866, Penn State at Purdue: The total on this opened at 143 and briefly went up to 144, but has come back down to 142.5/143 with three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the under. My numbers agree, as I have this one at 134 points, so a play on the under.
Game 856, Houston at Temple: The total in this one opened at 141 and has stayed there even though two-thirds of the bets are coming in on the over, while I have this one at 133 point, giving us an 8-point difference, so will be on the under in this one, as well.
Game 858, Loyola at Evansville: The total in this one opened at 127 and has been bet up to 127.5, with 60% of the wagers on the over and once again, I have this one a little lower scoring, with a projected total of 121 points, so we don’t have quite the difference we’d like to see, but will still be on the under.
876, Oral Roberts at Denver: The total in this one has moved from 141 to 142.5 and I have it at 149, so a play on the over here, although the vast majority of wagers are coming in on the over in this one.
Other games: We had a few that were close to cracking the top four, where our minimum difference was 6.5 points, and they were Cincinnati under 141, where I had it at 135; Stanford over 142, where I had it at 148; Monmouth over 142, as I had it at 147. Stanford has dropped to 141 at several places, which would give us a difference of seven points and would be a play. College totals do move fast and furious at times, which is one of the reasons it’s a little tougher to do write-ups on NCAA totals than it is for the NBA.