This can apply to and sport to one degree or another, but it’s been my experience that when we’re dealing with 18-21 year olds it’s further up my list of factors when I look at games. This is especially true of the elite teams.
Although this season North Carolina is down, I’ve been able to make a significant profit betting against these teams the game prior to playing one another. The just tend to be more focused on their impending head-to-head matchup rather than the one they’re involved in right now. Last year was no exception, either.
They ended the regular season with a game in Chapel Hill, but four days prior they played Wake Forest after throttling Miami two days earlier. The game was in Cameron Indoor and Duke went off as about a 28 point favorite, and one the game by one point. Clearly they couldn’t refocus either as they subsequently lost to North Carolina.
And since history does repeat itself, in 2018 before Duke ended the regular season with North Carolina, they lost outright at Virginia Tech in a game that saw them favored by a half-dozen.
And this season I am already looking at their March 2nd matchup with NC State at home, just prior to playing the Tar Heels, and on the heels (pun intended) of playing at Virginia.
Some betting situations that may offer opportunities this weekend are as follows:
January 25, 2020 – Baylor is at Florida, and Gainesville is always a tough out for visitors. Clearly the game means a lot to Baylor in the long run, but it is a non-conference game that may not mean what the upcoming game at Iowa State means. Florida doesn’t have any bad losses and could really use another marquee win after beating Auburn at home. I’d expect Baylor to be slight favorites and most likely the very public side, but for me it will be Florida or nothing.
On February 15th, there’s another game already on the radar. Dayton travels to Amherst to play UMass and Amherst is a tough place to even get to, let alone play. Dayton has a huge game at VCU just three days later, and I’d expect the Fyers to be in the neighborhood of 16 point favorites over UMass. It’s probably the Minutemen’s Game of the Year, and they will have had six days off. Umass lost by 28 at Dayton earlier, but they were down 20 points midway through the first half.
After that Dayton took it easy on them. If Dayton does that next weekend then the backdoor will be wide open for UMass to cover the number.
These situations occur nearly every night. Well, maybe not Friday’s when were relegated to the Ivy League, but sometimes there, too. The moral to the story is that in order to be successful you have to be prepared, as opposed to looking at the line thirty minutes before tip off and throwing a dart.