Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Week 17 Betting Pick

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To conclude the 2019 regular season, the Bengals (+2.5) are gearing up to host the Cleveland Browns (-2.5) in Cincinnati. FOX is scheduled to televise the action and this AFC North matchup kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.

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Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Predictions 12/29/2019

In this Sunday AFC game, Cleveland is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 2.5 points. The Browns are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Bengals are +120. If one team catches a lucky break in the early stages it will generate a nice in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 45 points.

Sharp bettors are siding with the under. The game’s O/U was placed originally at 46.

The Browns are 5-9-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 4.3 units so far in 2019. The team has posted an O/U record of 7-8.

The Bengals have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 13.8 units. They’re 5-9-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 6-8-1.

The Browns have gone 6-9 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against AFC North opponents. The Bengals are 1-14 SU overall and 0-5 SU versus divisional foes.

The Browns will look to get back in stride after a 31-15 loss to Baltimore last week where Baker Mayfield completed 20 passes for 192 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Nick Chubb (only 45 rushing yards on 15 attempts) led the running attack while Jarvis Landry (seven receptions, 74 yards) and Odell Beckham Jr. (four catches, 44 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

In Week 16, Miami took care of this Cincinnati team by a score of 38-35. The Bengals defensive secondary let the Dolphins air it out for 419 yards and four touchdowns. DeVante Parker had a productive showing in the win for Miami, posting 111 yards on five catches. For Cincinnati, Andy Dalton completed 33-of-56 passes for 396 yards and four touchdowns. Joe Mixon (50 rushing yards on 21 attempts) handled the running game while Tyler Boyd (nine receptions, 128 yards, two TDs) and Alex Erickson (six catches, 55 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Cleveland has run the ball on 42.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Cincinnati has an overall rush percentage of 37 percent. The Browns have produced 121 rush yards per game (including 120 per game against North opponents) and have 15 scores on the ground this year. The Bengals are averaging 89 rushing yards per game (106 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.

If 2019 results are any indication, then it’s looking like the Browns might be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has yielded just 38 sacks while the D-line registered 37 sacks. The Bengals offensive line has allowed 37 sacks and their defense has forced only 34 sacks.

The Browns offensive scheme has averaged 238 yards in the air overall (223 per game against conference opposition) and has 19 passing scores so far. The Bengals have recorded 254 pass yards per contest (210.6 in the AFC) and have 17 total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Cleveland seems to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed 142 rush yards and 237 pass yards per game. The Cincinnati D has allowed 256.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 153.9 yards per game on the ground. The Browns are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.10 to opposing QBs, while the Bengals have allowed a 7.56 ANY/A.

Mayfield has amassed 3,301 passing yards this year, and has completed 275-of-464 attempts with 17 passing touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Mayfield’s got a 5.31 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.49 over the last two outings.

Andy Dalton has completed 281-of-469 passes for 3,153 yards, 14 TDs and nine INTs for Cincinnati. His ANY/A stands at 5.52 for the year and 4.86 over his last two games.

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL Prediction

SU Winner – Browns, ATS Winner – Browns, O/U – Over

Notes

Betting Notes

The Bengals have made 15 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Browns have accounted for 19 such plays.

The Cleveland defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Cincinnati has given up 10 such plays.

The Cleveland offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Cincinnati has created five such runs.

The Browns defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bengals have given up 22 such runs.

The Cleveland defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 37 times this year. Cincinnati has produced just 25 sacks.

Cleveland has produced 5.0 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.7 over its last two.

Cincinnati has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.9 over its last two.

In its last three games, Cincinnati is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The Over/Under for Cleveland’s last game was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 31-15 defeat to Baltimore.

Over its last three contests, Cleveland is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Cincinnati’s last match was set at 46. The over cashed in the 38-35 defeat to Miami.

Cleveland has lost four of its last five games SU, with an eight-point victory over Cincinnati on December 8th accounting for the only win over that span.

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