The No. 13 Oregon Ducks (22-7, 11-5 Pac-12) look to continue an 11-game home winning streak when they meet the California Golden Bears (13-16, 7-9 Pac-12) at Matthew Knight Arena. Oregon opened as a 17-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 130 points. Action starts at 11 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 5, 2020, and it can be seen on ESPN2.
California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks Free Preview
In the Golden Bears’ last game, they defeated the Utah Runnin’ Utes, 86-79, despite being 1.5-point underdogs. Matt Bradley was California’s leading scorer with 21 points on 7-for-17 shooting. California dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a solid turnover percentage of 9.0 (better than their season average of 17.5) and a free throw rate of 0.394 (above their season average of 0.258). Utah was 16.4 and 0.241, respectively, for those same stats. The two teams combined to put up 165 points, which finished well over the O/U total of 129.
The Ducks come in on a high note after covering the 9.5-point spread against the Oregon State Beavers in their last matchup, 69-54. Oregon was lifted by Payton Pritchard, who was the game’s leading scorer with 23 points on 9-for-18 shooting. The Ducks had an extraordinarily low turnover percentage of 5.6 (better than their season average of 15.4) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 43.2 (above their season average of 32.1). Combined, the two clubs scored 123 points, which was under the projected point total of 136.
These two teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined for 149 points, well over the projected point total of 128.5. The Ducks won 77-72, but were unable to cover as 10.5-point favorites. The Ducks dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a great offensive rebounding percentage of 28.6 and a fantastic effective field goal percentage of 0.615. For those same stats, the Golden Bears recorded marks of 26.9 and 0.585, respectively. Pritchard had a standout performance in the victory, putting up 21 points and eight assists.
Of California’s 29 games, 15 have finished over the projected point total, while 18 of Oregon’s 29 games have finished over the O/U total. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Ducks have a clear advantage. They are 22-7 SU and 17-12 ATS, while the Golden Bears are 13-16 SU and 14-15 ATS.
The high-powered offense of Oregon will go head-to-head against the bottom-tier defense of California. The Ducks rank 25th in offensive efficiency, while the Golden Bears are 276th in defensive efficiency. The Ducks should have the advantage on that side of the ball.
California at Oregon ATS Prediction
Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – Oregon, ATS Winner – Oregon, O/U – Over
The Ducks rank 138th in rebounds per game (35.7) while the Golden Bears rank 260th (32.9).
Oregon blocks 3.1 opponent shots per game, which ranks 125th in the nation. California ranks 135th in blocks allowed per game (3.6).
California is 2-9 ATS on the road with 6 unders, 4 overs and 1 push.
At home, Oregon is 10-6 ATS with 11 overs and 5 unders.
Oregon ranks 43rd in steals per game (7.8) while California ranks 248th (4.0).
The Ducks rank 66th in assists per game (14.4) while the Golden Bears rank 265th (9.1).
Oregon ranks 132nd in three pointers attempted per game (22.2) while California ranks 304th (14.7).
Oregon is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.
Across its last five outings, California is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
The Ducks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.4, down from 8.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Golden Bears have scored an average of 71.0 points per game (7.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 73.0 points per game (4.2 above their season average).