Bundesliga Match of the Day Round 3 – Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen (9/15/18)

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It’s the turn of Bayer Leverkusen to face the might of Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich, as they travel to Bavaria searching for their first win here since 2012 after suffering five straight losses. The game between Bayern and Leverkusen will take place at the Allianz Arena on September 15th, 2018.

BAYERN vs. LEVERKUSEN

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Three-Way: 1: Bayern -500; X: +600 Draw; 2: Leverkusen +1200 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -2: Bayern +110; Leverkusen -120

Total 3.5 goals: Over +100; Under -125

BAYERN MUNICH

The expectations around Bayern, after their sixth championship in a row, have been met so far with two wins from two. Another title already looks a certainty, with the club the last failing to win one, after winning the first two games, in 2006/07. With Bayern only losing one home game last season (W14, D2, L1), this looks a tough ask for Leverkusen.

The Bavarians had a relatively easy job on the road to Stuttgart where they secured a comfortable 3-0 victory thanks to goals from Leon Goretzka, Robert Lewandowski, and Thomas Muller, while they held the hosts to zero attempts on target. That should change on this one as Leverkusen has excellent individuals in the attack.

Betting Trends:

  • Bayern’s record from their last 29 home games against Leverkusen after scoring first: W27, D2, L0
  • A win for Bayern would be their first completion of six consecutive league wins at home to Leverkusen since March 2003

LEVERKUSEN

Leverkusen’s task is even harder considering they are one of four Bundesliga teams that remain on zero points, despite being tipped pre-season as Bayern’s closest title contenders. Nevertheless, Leverkusen was the third best away team last season (W7, D5, L5), but traveling to the Allianz Arena is surely not their favorite one.

Bayer disappointed once again as they suffered a 3-1 home defeat to Wolfsburg despite having a 1-0 lead as Leon Bailey put them ahead in the 26th minute. However, the visitors responded before the break as Leverkusen’s goalkeeper Ramazan Ozcan scored an own goal in the 36th minute, while Wout Weghorst and Renato Steffen scored in the space of just five minutes in the second half to make it 3-1 for the Wolves. Leverkusen is facing the third straight loss and how the things stand at the moment, only a miracle could save them to leave the Allianz Arena unbeaten.

Betting Trends:

  • Leverkusen is winless in the previous three Bundesliga games on the road
  • Leverkusen recorded only one win at Bayern in the last 20 years

Bayern won nine out of the previous 11 H2H encounters including the last three, while the Bavarians were victorious in the past five meetings at the Allianz Arena. However, only one of those five wins was with a margin bigger than two goals, so even though I think the hosts will get three points here, I am backing the visitors not to lose by more than two.

MY PICK: AH Leverkusen +2 (-120)

ADDITIONAL PICK: In 39 H2H Bundesliga games at Bayern there’s only ever been one 0-0 draw, so don’t expect to see a low-scoring affair here. Seven of the last eight H2H duels at the Allianz Arena produced over 2.5 goals, while the last three produced even 16 goals and each of them gave over 3.5 goals, so I believe we will have another goal-glut on Saturday.

MY PICK: Over 3.5 (+100)