Bundesliga Match of the Day Round 29 – Red Bull Leipzig vs. Wolfsburg (4/13/19)

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RB Leipzig welcomes Wolfsburg in the knowledge that the visitors are one of just four Bundesliga teams that they don’t hold a positive H2H league record against (W2, D1, L2). Not one of those five previous top-flight meetings ended goalless, although three did end with a 1-0 scoreline. The game between Leipzig and Wolfsburg will take place at the Red Bull Arena on April 13th, 2019.

RB LEIPZIG vs. WOLFSBURG

Three-Way: 1: Leipzig -175; X: +320 Draw; 2: Wolfsburg +475 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -1: Leipzig -101; Wolfsburg -110

Total 2.5 goals: Over -143; Under +129

RB LEIPZIG

The hosts can now boast a ten-game unbeaten Bundesliga run (W7, D3), after a 4-2 comeback victory last time out versus Bayer Leverkusen saw Leipzig overturn a half-time deficit for the first time this league campaign. They kept a clean sheet in seven of those ten matches, and with just 22 league goals conceded so far, they can also claim the division’s best defense.

Yet at home, Leipzig won just one of their last five Bundesliga games (W1, D3, L1), although that victory did come in their last match here. Additionally, their solid defense has conceded a league-low average of 0.57 goals per home fixture so far.

After coming from behind to beat Augsburg in the quarter-finals of the DFB Pokal, the Red Bulls beat Leverkusen on the road in Bundesliga, 4-2. The teenage sensation Kai Havertz scored a first-half brace for Bayer, while Marcel Sabitzer bagged one for the visitors before Timo Werner, Emil Forsberg, and Matheus Cunha scored in the second half to sink the hosts.

Ralf Rangnick will be without Dayot Upamecano who is still struggling with a knee injury but the rest of the squad is healthy and ready to face Wolfsburg on Saturday.

Betting Trends:

  • Emil Forsberg has netted in consecutive Bundesliga matches
  • Leipzig has been losing at half-time in just two Bundesliga home games this season (HT: W8, D4, L2)

WOLFSBURG

Visiting Wolfsburg won and lost alternate games across their last four top-flight fixtures (W2, L2), failing to score in both defeats whilst conceding eight goals. However, they also scored eight themselves in those two wins.

Those two recent defeats came on the road, although Wolfsburg remains the division’s fifth-best away team (W7, D2, L5), picking up five away clean sheets so far. They responded to a late 2-0 defeat to Dortmund with a 3-1 home victory over Hannover thanks to Renato Steffen’s double and a goal from Jerome Roussillon.

Bruno Labbadia doesn’t have any new injury-related concerns but Ismail Azzaoui (knee), Ignacio Camacho (ankle), Yannick Gerhardt (knee), Sebastian Jung (muscle), and Paul Ntep (muscle) are listed as questionable to feature.

Betting Trends:

  • Renato Steffen (five league goals) scored twice in Wolfsburg’s victory over Hannover last time out
  • Of the 21 away goals that Wolfsburg conceded in the top-flight this term, 14 arrived in the last 15 minutes of both halves
  • Only one team has scored in four of Wolfsburg’s last five Bundesliga away games

Leipzig won four of the previous eight H2H encounters (D1, L3) including two of the last three, while the Red Bulls were victorious in the past two meetings at Red Bull Arena. Wolfsburg won the reverse fixture, 1-0, and the hosts will be looking for revenge here and considering the Wolves’ away form of late, I am giving an advantage to Leipzig. However, I am not sure whether the hosts will win by more than a goal as Wolfsburg still has a lot to fight for and that’s why I am going with the visitors to cover the +1 spread.

MY PICK: AH +1 Wolfsburg (-110)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Even though six of eight H2H meetings failed to produce more than two goals including the previous clash, I am going with at least three goals here because of the teams’ respective form of late. Each of Leipzig’s last four games produced 3+ goals, while that was the case in three of Wolfsburg’s previous four matches.

MY PICK: Over 2.5 (-143)

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