Bundesliga Match of the Day Round 25 – Bayern Munich vs. Wolfsburg (3/9/19)

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The Bavarians welcome the Wolves looking to continue an extraordinary home record against their opponents. The defending German champions have never lost a competitive home game against the visitors (W23, D2), although one of the two draws was in the last match here. The game between Bayern and Wolfsburg will take place at the Allianz Arena on March 9th, 2019.

BAYERN MUNICH vs. WOLFSBURG

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Three-Way: 1: Bayern -455; X: +550 Draw; 2: Wolfsburg +1000 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -1.5: Bayern -130; Wolfsburg +120

Total 3.5 goals: Over +110; Under -139

BAYERN MUNICH

Things seem to be back to normal for Bayern, who now won 11 of their last 12 Bundesliga games (W11, L1). However, they did keep a clean sheet in just five of those victories and have conceded in 17 of their 24 top-flight matches this campaign.

Three of those clean sheets came during their current five-game winning league run on home soil. The hosts conceded only two goals during that period, with both coming as first-half equalizers after Bayern netted the opener.

The latest road victory over Borussia Monchengladbach helped Bayern to level with Dortmund at the top of Bundesliga, and Niko Kovac’s men were quite ruthless in a big win. Javi Martinez and Thomas Muller scored two quick goals for the visitors and Gladbach only managed to cut the deficit through Lars Stindl in the 37th minute before Robert Lewandowski with a brace and Serge Gnabry scored to give Bayern a huge 5-1 victory.

Niko Kovac will be without Corentin Tolisso who is out with a knee injury, while David Alaba (tendon), Kingsley Coman (muscle), Leon Goretzka (ankle), Franck Ribery (stomach disorder), and Arjen Robben (thigh) are listed as questionable to face Wolfsburg on Saturday.

Betting Trends:

  • Bayern’s top Bundesliga scorer Robert Lewandowski (15 goals) netted a brace last time out
  • Bayern has been losing at half-time just once across their 11 Bundesliga home games this season – that was in their only defeat
  • Of the six second-half goals Bayern conceded at home this league campaign, five arrived after the 75th minute

WOLFSBURG

Wolfsburg is unbeaten in their last five Bundesliga games (W3, D2), scoring the opener in all five, and winning to nil in three. The visitors are the division’s second-best away team (W7, D2, L3), and have lost just one of their last seven road trips (W5, D1, L1). Additionally, having conceded just 13 goals on the road, Wolfsburg can also boast the league’s third-best away defense.

After defeating Main and Borussia Monchengladbach with the 3-0 scoreline, the Wolves failed to get three points at home as Werder Bremen held them to a 1-1 draw. John Brooks gave Wolfsburg a 1-0 lead in the 54th minute but Max Kruse tied the game with 15 minutes to go to prevent the hosts from getting three wins in a row.

Bruno Labbadia cannot count on Daniel Ginczek who is out with an ankle injury, while Ismail Azzaoui (knee), Nacho Camacho (ankle), Sebastian Jung (muscle), and Paul Ntep de Madiba (muscle) are all listed as doubtful to face Bayern on Saturday.

Betting Trends:

  • Wout Weghorst (nine goals) scored Wolfsburg’s only goal in their 3-1 reverse fixture loss
  • Wolfsburg has been losing at half-time in only two of 12 away league games – they lost both those matches

Bayern won eight out of the previous ten H2H encounters including the last two, while the Bavarians were victorious in almost all meetings at the Allianz Arena as Wolfsburg managed to escape a defeat here on only two occasions this century – both times it was a draw. I have no doubt that the Bavarians will get a victory here but I have been impressed with Wolfsburg’s form of late and I don’t think they will be destroyed in this one, and that’s why I am backing the visitors to cover the +1.5 spread.

MY PICK: AH +1.5 Wolfsburg (+120)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Five of the last six Bundesliga H2Hs here produced over 2.5 goals, while both teams scored in three of the last four and I expect to see a goal-glut with both teams scoring. Wolfsburg scored at least a goal in each of their previous five Bundesliga games and found the net in each of their last nine away games, and I am backing them to score one here.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (+105)