Bundesliga Pick of the Day Round 23 – Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayer Leverkusen (2/24/19)


This has all the makings of a classic, and that belief is backed up the fact that just one of the last 14 Bundesliga H2H meetings has ended goalless, with three of the last four alone witnessing over 3.5 goals. The game between Dortmund and Leverkusen will take place at the Signal Iduna Park on February 24th, 2019.


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Three-Way: 1: Dortmund -125; X: +320 Draw; 2: Leverkusen +300 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -0.5: Dortmund -119; Leverkusen +108

Total 3 goals: Over -122; Under -101


Only a clean sheet for Dortmund can absolutely guarantee that they will begin March atop the Bundesliga. Though winless in five matches, having conceded nine goals across (excluding injury-time) just their last 390 minutes of play in all competitions, Lucien Favre’s men are currently unbeaten in six league games and favorites to win this clash.

Furthermore, Dortmund scored at least twice in every single league game at Signal Iduna Park this season. However, with Leverkusen keeping a clean sheet in (at least) the second half of their last seven Bundesliga games, this clash of titans will likely keep us all guessing until the very end!

Borussia is currently in a five-game winless streak as they drew the last three Bundesliga games including the most recent one with Nurnberg on the road, 0-0. It seems that a heavy 3-0 defeat to Tottenham in the opening leg of the Champions League 1/8 finals shook them a bit and they failed to score in two consecutive games for the first time this season.

Lucien Favre will be without Lukasz Piszczek (heel) and Marco Reus (thigh), while Manuel Akanji (hip) and Christian Pulisic (muscle) are questionable to face Leverkusen on Sunday.

Betting Trends:

  • Back in the reverse fixture, Dortmund striker PacoAlcácer turned one point into three, with a brace inside the final ten minutes
  • Dortmund won both halves, and by a margin of over 2.5 goals, in each of their last four home league wins over Leverkusen


Still, with an outside chance of breaching the top three, Leverkusen could easily overturn their status as matchday outsiders. However, recent H2H history is against Leverkusen, with September’s reverse fixture marking the last time they lost a league match after scoring first.

Leverkusen won four consecutive games in Bundesliga but suffered a surprising loss to Heidenheim in the DFB Pokal and was eliminated out of the Europa League by Krasnodar who was a better side over two legs and a couple of draws, 0-0 and 1-1.

Bayer needed a win after the opening leg and 0-0 in Russia but the visitors scored the first goal at the BayArena through the promising youngster Magomed-ShapiSuleymanov in the 84th minute, and although Aranguiz equalized three minutes later, the hosts couldn’t complete a comeback and now they will focus on Bundesliga.

Peter Bosz cannot count on Karim Bellarabi, who is out with a muscle injury, while Lars Bender is doubtful to play due to a muscle injury.

Betting Trends:

  • Visiting sharp-shooters Kai Havertz and Julian Brandt share five goals across Leverkusen’s last two Bundesliga road trips against all opponents
  • Leverkusen is unbeaten in the last nine league matches in which they have scored first (W8, D1)
  • Die Werkself have won seven of their last eight halves of league football at all venues, as part of a 2019 Bundesliga record that reads: W4, L1

Dortmund won five out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D3, L2) including three of the last four, while Borussia was victorious in the past three meetings at the Signal Iduna Park. Dortmund scored even 13 goals in those three home wins and they beat Leverkusen 4-2 earlier this season and considering that Bayern won on Saturday, I expect the hosts to respond with three points as well and I am backing them to get a victory here.

MY PICK: Dortmund (-125)

ADDITIONAL PICK: The rivals produced even 20 goals in the last four H2H tilts, which is five per game on average and I wouldn’t be surprised to see five goals in this one and that’s why I am backing BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (-138)


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