Bundesliga Match of the Day Round 19 – Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen (1/26/19)

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Two teams that suffered defeat in their first Bundesliga fixture of 2019 will face as both sides harboring European place aspirations. The game between Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen will take place at the Volkswagen Arena on January 26th, 2019.

WOLFSBURG vs. BAYER LEVERKUSEN

Three-Way: 1: Wolfsburg +162; X: +250 Draw; 2: Leverkusen +160 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread 0: Wolfsburg +102; Leverkusen -111

Total 3 goals: Over +104; Under -128

WOLFSBURG

A 2-1 defeat at Schalke ended a six-game unbeaten streak for Wolfsburg (W5, D1), a run that had propelled Die Wölfe from 12th to fifth. The hosts scored exactly two goals in four of those matches, just as they have in five of their nine Bundesliga home fixtures so far (W3, D3, L3).

Wolfsburg’s former player Daniel Caligiuri scored a brace for Schalke and Elvis Rexhbecaj scored his first ever goal for the Wolves in a 2-1 road defeat but the visitors didn’t deserve to lose this encounter. However, they dropped to the 6th position in Bundesliga with 28 points, 17 points behind the league leaders Borussia Dortmund but only three behind RB Leipzig who is currently in the Champions League place, and four ahead of Bayer Leverkusen.

Bruno Labbadia will be without Daniel Ginczek who is out with an ankle injury, while Ismail Azzaoui (knee), Ignacio Camacho (foot), JosuhaGuilavogui (thigh), Paul Ntep de Madiba (muscle), and Marcel Tisserand (head).

Betting Trends:

  • Wolfsburg’s top scorer WoutWeghorst has six Bundesliga goals and netted in his side’s 3-1 victory in September’s reverse fixture
  • Wolfsburg have scored more than half of their Bundesliga goals (54%) in the 15 minutes before half-time and full-time

BAYER LEVERKUSEN

Leverkusen lost 1-0 to Monchengladbach last time out, but defeat in their previous outing isn’t the only thing these two sides share – they’ve seen both teams score in two-thirds of their respective Bundesliga home (Wolfsburg) and away (Leverkusen) fixtures.

However, similarities begin to end there with Wolfsburg scoring the opener in just 33% of their Bundesliga home matches this season, in comparison to Leverkusen’s 56% when playing away – only Bayern and Hoffenheim can better that percentage.

The visitors are unbeaten in five of their nine away league outings (W3, D2, L4), but having lost three of those four defeats by a two-goal margin or more, Leverkusen will know there’s plenty of room for improvement.

Bayer dominated the tilt against Gladbach and had 22 goal attempts including ten on target and 64 percent of ball possession but the visitors scored the first-half goal through Alassane Plea in the 37th minute and then held on to the minimal lead to get three points.

Peter Bosz doesn’t have new injury-related issues as he cannot count only on Joel Pohjanpalo (ankle) and PanagiotisRetsos (muscle).

Betting Trends:

  • Lucas Alario’s last three competitive goals came on the road – he also got a goal and an assist the last time Leverkusen won here
  • There’s been a goal scored up to, and including, the 30th minute in Leverkusen’s last seven competitive away games

Wolfsburg won five out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D2, L3) including the one in this season when the Wolves beat Leverkusen 3-1 on the road, while Bayer was victorious in the past two meetings at the Volkswagen Arena. These rivals haven’t played a match without a winner in Wolfsburg since 2005; the hosts recorded nine, while the visitors secured five victories and I believe it’s about time for a draw and that’s why I am backing it here.

MY PICK: Draw (+250)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Fourteen of the last 15 top-flight H2Hs featured both teams scoring, whilst the last 11 in a row produced over 2.5 match goals. The odds on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are -110 and considering that each of the previous 15 duels in Wolfsburg produced BTTS and over 2.5, I am backing it here as well.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (-110)

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