The Miami Heat (37-22) will be at home in AmericanAirlines Arena when they meet the Brooklyn Nets (26-32). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 223 points with Miami set as a 7-point favorite. Action starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 29, 2020, and it can be seen on YES Network.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat Free Preview
In the Nets’ last outing, they lost big to the Atlanta Hawks, 141-118, despite being 1.5-point favorites. With 24 points on 6-for-16 shooting, Spencer Dinwiddie was Brooklyn’s high scorer. Atlanta’s rebounding was their biggest strength. The Hawks had more offensive rebounds (15 vs. seven), defensive rebounds (37 vs. 31) and total rebounds (52 vs. 38). The two teams combined to score 259 points, which was well over the O/U total of 232.5.
Although the Heat beat the Dallas Mavericks in their last matchup, 126-118, they were not able to cover as 12-point favorites. Miami’s Bam Adebayo played a pivotal role with 14 points and 11 rebounds. Miami played a perfect game. They had a phenomenal free throw rate of 0.342 (above their season average of 0.234) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 16.2 (below their season average of 20.7). Dallas put up marks of 0.202 and 10.5, respectively, for those same stats. Combined, the two clubs scored 244 points, which finished over the O/U total of 235.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, this will be a balanced contest. The sweet-shooting Miami offense ranks fourth in the NBA in that metric at 0.548, while the stingy Brooklyn defense is ranked fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.506).
Of Brooklyn’s 57 games that accepted bets, 29 have finished under the projected point total, while 35 of Miami’s 58 games have finished over the O/U total. The Heat have the superior straight up (SU) record (37-22 vs. 26-32) and a slight edge against the spread (ATS) (29-27-2 vs. 27-28-2).
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Nets, it’s been Caris LeVert, who has averaged 23 points,5.4 rebounds,5.2 assists,3.2 steals, while the Heat have received solid contributions from Adebayo (19 points,11.2 rebounds,7.4 assists,2.2 steals,2.0 blocks).
These two teams have met twice already this year, each winning once. In the most recent game, the Heat lost 117-113, unable to cover as 4-point favorites. Jimmy Butler led both teams with 33 points and also recorded nine rebounds. The two teams combined to put up 230 points, which was 12 points above the projected point total of 218 points. Brooklyn had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (28.0 vs. 9.8). Miami, meanwhile, did a terrific job of making free throws (18-21; 85.7 percent).
Nets at Heat Free Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – Nets, ATS Winner – Nets, O/U – Under
The Heat rank fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the Nets rank 22nd (5.4).
Miami ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (11.8) while Brooklyn ranks 16th (13.3).
Brooklyn ranks 10th in second chance points per game (13.7) while Miami ranks 26th (11.9).
On the road, Brooklyn is 11-15-2 ATS with 15 unders, 12 overs and 1 push.
At home, Miami is 17-9-1 ATS with 18 overs and 9 unders.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Miami is 7-1 and Brooklyn is 8-1.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Nets are 26-25 and the Heat are 36-16.
The Nets rank second in assists allowed per game (22.3) while the Heat rank 18th (24.8).
Brooklyn ranks fifth in three pointers attempted per game (37.6) while Miami ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (38.0).
The Nets rank fifth in points in the paint per game (49.8) while the Heat rank 26th (44.7).
The Nets rank 19th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.2) while the Heat rank 26th (18.1).
Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (42.1) while Brooklyn ranks 23rd (46.2).
Miami is 1-4 ATS with 5 overs in its last five games.
Across its last five games, Brooklyn is 2-2-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.6, down from 3.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nets have scored an average of 111.2 points per game (0.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.8 points per game (1.6 above their season average).