Bowling Green at Buffalo College Football Betting Pick 11/29/19


Two schools that prefer to run the football, Bulls (-29) are gearing up to welcome their in-conference counterpart Bowling Green Falcons to UB Stadium. ESPN+ will broadcast the action and this Friday game is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET.

Bowling Green at Buffalo Betting Odds 11/29/2019

Buffalo has been tabbed as heavily favored in this one and is currently giving up 29 points to Bowling Green. The over/under has been set at 53 points. There will probably be some good live betting possibilities in this match.

The Falcons are 3-8 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against MAC opponents. The Bulls are 6-5 SU overall and are also 4-3 SU in conference play. The Falcons are 3-8 against the spread (ATS) and are down 3.0 units this season. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 3-8.

The Bulls have gained 1.8 units this year. They’re 6-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 7-4.

The Falcons are most-recently reeling from a 66-24 defeat to Ohio last week. Grant Loy completed 21-of-32 passes for 250 yards, along with a score and a pick. Davon Jones (95 yards on 16 rush attempts, one TD) and Bryson Denley (70 yards on 13 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the loss while Quintin Morris (six receptions, 86 yards, one TD) and RB Marlow III (four catches, 41 yards) handled the receiving duties.

The Buffalo Bulls just picked up a 49-30 win over Toledo. The defense allowed the Rockets to rush for 154 yards on 35 attempts, including three rush TDs. Bryant Koback was a bright spot in the defeat for Toledo, recording 99 rushing yards and a score on 17 attempts. For Buffalo, Kyle Vantrease completed 13-of-20 passes for 172 yards and one touchdown. Jaret Patterson (192 rushing yards on 32 attempts, four TDs) and Kevin Marks (118 yards on 16 carries, one TD) handled the ground game in the win while Antonio Nunn (five receptions, 89 yards) and Daniel Lee (three catches, 47 yards) led the receiving corps.

Bowling Green has run the ball on 59.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Buffalo has a rush percentage of 69.6 percent. The Falcons have produced 167 rush yards/game (including 173 per game versus Mid-American opponents) and have 14 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Bulls are totaling 236 rushing yards per contest (243 in conference) and have 26 total rush TDs.

If 2019 results are any indication, then it’s looking like the Bulls ought to hold an edge when it comes to RB efficiency. Their backfield has generated 4.6 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 2.9 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Falcons have rushed for 3.9 yards per carry while allowing 5.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Falcons have tallied 164 yards/game in the air overall (165 per game versus conference opposition) and have nine passing scores so far. The Bulls have put up 144 pass yards per outing (149.1 in the MAC) and have 13 total pass TDs.

Bowling Green has let opponents run for an average of 224 yards and pass for 233 yards per game. Buffalo has been a bit better than that, giving up 94.4 rushing yards per game and 208.4 to opposing teams in the air. The Bulls are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.66 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons have given up an 8.43 ANY/A.

Loy is up to 1,042 passing yards this year, and has completed 102-of-171 attempts with six passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. Loy’s got a 3.98 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 2.74 over the last two outings.

We’re looking for Falcons to control tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with Quintin Morris (601 yards, four TDs), Bryson Denley (428 rush yards, four rush TDs, 230 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Davon Jones (429 rush yards, two rush TDs, one receiving TD) have delivered in the Bowling Green offense.

In the home locker room, Kyle Vantrease has accounted for 851 yards, six TDs and one INT. Vantrease’s ANY/A sits at 7.54 for the season and 8.24 over his past two outings.

The Bulls will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. Antonio Nunn (546 receiving yards, five TDs) has contributed lately, but Jaret Patterson (1,187 rush yards, 11 rush TDs, 197 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Kevin Marks (848 rush yards, six rush TDs) have seen plenty of touches recently.

When these two squads faced each other a year ago, Buffalo knocked off Bowling Green easily 44-14.

Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls NCAA Prediction

SU Winner – Buffalo, ATS Winner – Bowling Green, O/U – Under


Team Betting Notes

The Buffalo offense has lost eight fumbles this season while Bowling Green has lost six.

The Buffalo defense has created 38 sacks on the year while Bowling Green has just 24.

Bowling Green has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.1 over its last two.

Buffalo has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.5 over its past two.

In its last three matchups, Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The O/U for Bowling Green’s last game was set at 55.5. The over cashed in the team’s 66-24 loss to Ohio.

Over its last three games, Bowling Green is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Buffalo’s previous outing going into it was 53.5. The over cashed in the 49-30 victory over Toledo.

Bowling Green has lost five of its last six games SU, with a 29-point victory over Akron on November 2nd representing the only win over that stretch.

Buffalo has won five of its last six games SU, with a -3-point defeat to Kent State on November 14th accounting for its one loss over that span.