Betting on the Over/Under – Torino vs. AC Milan 4/18/2018


The Italian Serie A goes on this midweek with the Round 33 games and the battle for the European qualification is hitting up, so let’s take a closer look at the clash between Torino and AC Milan set for this Wednesday, April 18th, 2018, at Stadio Olimpico di Torino. The visitors are slight +140 favorites to win this match, but the hosts will have to attack, as only victory keeps them in the competition for the UEFA Europa League, so let’s see what can we expect from these two sides.

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TORINO is playing in a good form recently, winning three out of their last four games along with a nil-nil draw against Chievo on the road in the previous round of the Italian Serie A. They are currently sitting at the 10th spot of the Serie A table with 46 points, an 11-13-8 record, and a 46:38 goal difference, seven points behind their next opponent in the sixth spot, so three points from this clash is an imperative for Torino if they want to continue their bid for the UEFA Europa League.

In 16 matches on the home soil Torino has recorded seven wins, five draws, and four losses with a 26:15 goal difference, while they’ve won three out of their previous five home games along with two defeats against Fiorentina (2-1) and mighty Juventus (1-0). For their next encounter, the manager Walter Mazzarri doesn’t have any injury problems among the squad, so he can field his best eleven.

On the other side, AC MILAN is without a win for four games in a row, recording a 3-1 defeat against Juventus on the road, and three consecutive draws against Inter (0-0), Sassuolo (1-1), and Napoli (0-0) in the previous round of the Italian Serie A. Rossoneri are currently laying at the sixth spot of the Serie A table with 53 points, a 15-8-9 record, and a goal difference of 43:36, just two points ahead of Fiorentina in the seventh spot, so they cannot afford  a loss against Torino this Wednesday.

AC Milan lost only one out of their previous five away games, along with three victories and one stalemate, scoring nine goals in the process, and conceding four in a return. In 16 Serie A games away from home, Rossoneri has recorded seven wins, three draws, and six losses with a 27:23 goal difference. For the clash against Torino, the manager Gennaro Gattuso will miss the defender Alessio Romagnoli due to a muscle injury, while all other players are ready to go.

Betting Odds on the Total at BetDSI Sportsbook 

Over 2.5 Goals @ +105

Under 2.5 Goals @ -125

Why Bet on the Under?

In the previous two rounds both Torino and AC Milan played some tight games, and we haven’t seen more than two goals on the scoreboard in none of these four tilts, while AC Milan’s previous three matches were ended in the under. Another good reason to place your bet on the under here is an importance of the clash, as Torino just have to grab a victory, while the visitors have to avoid a defeat, so we could easily see a patient and cautious approach on both sides of the pitch.

Why Bet on the Over?

The majority of numbers are suggesting we could see some goals in this match, as 18 out of 32 Torino’s games had at least three goals in the total, while nine out of their 16 home matches were finished in the over. On the other side, ten out of 16 AC Milan’s away games had at least three goals on the scoreboard, and their performance on the road promises a lot of counter-attacking. When it comes to a head-to-head record, three out of the last five meetings were finished in the over, but the first duel of the season was ended in a nil-nil draw.

Torino vs. AC Milan Over/Under Betting Pick

If one of the rivals find the back of the net early in the game, we could easily get at least three goals in the total, and that is what I expect to see. Torino prefers an attacking football, while the visitors rely on a deadly counter-attack, and I believe these setups will provide some goals on both sides of the field. The bookies set the market on both teams to score here at -125, but I’m backing the over, while you can check out all other lines and odds for this match at BetDSI Sportsbook.

MY PICK: Over 2.5 Goals (+105)