Betting on the Over/Under – Sevilla vs. Villarreal 4/14/2018


There are only seven rounds left to be played in the Spanish La Liga, and the game between Sevilla and Villarreal on this Saturday, April 14th, 2018, could be decisive for both sides as they are searching for European football next season. The hosts are set as strong -115 favorites by the bookies to win this match, while the markets on the Over/Under 2.5 Goals are set at -135/+110, so let’s see what can we expect from these two teams.

Team News, Updates and Facts

SEVILLA finished the UEFA Champions League journey after a 2-1 defeat on aggregate against Bayern Munich on last Wednesday, so now they can focus completely on the Spanish La Liga, while Sevilla will also play in the Spanish Copa del Rey Final against Barcelona on April 21st, 2018. The Great of Andalusia is currently in the seventh spot of the La Liga table with 46 points, a 14-4-13 record, and a 39:50 goal difference, one point behind their next rival Villarreal, so they cannot afford to lose this match.

Sevilla didn’t taste the win for five games in a row in all competitions, recording two draws and three losses in the process, while on the home soil, they’ve won just one out of the last five encounters, along with one draw and three defeats. The manager Vincenzo Montella will have a difficult task to recover his boys after the matchup with Bayern Munich, and he still cannot count on Simon Kjaer and Sebastien Corchia due to injuries.

On the other side, VILLARREAL lost two consecutive games against the bottom side Malaga (1-0) on the road, and Athletic Bilbao (3-1) at home in the previous round of the Spanish La Liga, so they’ve dropped to the sixth spot of the La Liga table with 47 points, a 14-5-12 record, and a 41:37 goal difference, two points behind Betis in the fifth spot. The eighth-placed Girona is only three points away, so the Yellow Submarine will try their best to stay unbeaten at Sevilla this Saturday.

Villarreal is playing in an on-off form throughout the season, and in 16 away games they have a 6-3-7 record with a goal difference of 15:19, while they’ve won just one out of their previous five matches on the road along with one stalemate and three defeats. For the clash against Sevilla, the manager Javier Calleja can count on all important first team players, besides the playmaker Pablo Fornals who’s struggling with a hand injury.

Betting Odds on the Total at BetDSI Sportsbook 

Over 2.5 Goals @ -135

Under 2.5 Goals @ +110

Why Bet on the Under?

The importance of the match should be the main reason why should you consider putting your money on the under, as it is expected to see a lot of tactical maneuvers, and the loss here could be fatal for both sides. Likewise, Villarreal is playing pretty tightly on the road this season, as ten out of their 16 away matches were finished in the under, while on the other side, nine out of 15 Sevilla’s home games had less than three goals in the total.

Why Bet on the Over?

If one of the teams break the deadlock early in the game, we could get an open-flow match with plenty of excitements. The bookmakers also favor the over here, as they expect to see at least one goal in the first half that could be a real game-changer. If you look at the numbers, Sevilla’s last three encounters had at least three goals in the total, and they couldn’t keep the clean sheet in three out of their previous four home games.

Sevilla vs. Villarreal Over/Under Betting Pick

This is one of those difficult-to-predict games, as both sides are playing in a shaky form recently. Also, if you look at the head-to-head record, you’ll notice that two out of the previous five meetings were ended in a nil-nil draw, while the other three had at least three goals in the total with both teams on the scoresheet. The stake is huge, particularly for the visitors, while the hosts will have a chance to qualify for the Europa League through the Spanish Copa del Rey, so I believe we will see a cautious approach from the Yellow Submarine.

Hereof, I’m going with the under here, while you can check out the remaining lines and markets on BetDSI Sportsbook.

MY PICK: Under 2.5 Goals (+110)