Betting on the Over/Under – Real Sociedad vs. Athletic Bilbao 4/28/2018

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The battle for the European qualification in the Spanish La Liga continues this weekend with the Round 35 games, and one of the most interesting matches is surely a Basque derby between Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao set for this Saturday, April 28th, 2018, at Anoeta in San Sebastian. Real Sociedad desperately needs three points here to stay in the race for the UEFA Europa League spot, while the visitors play only for glory, so let’s see what can we expect from these two sides.

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REAL SOCIEDAD is currently in the 11th spot of the Spanish La Liga table with 43 points, a 12-7-15 record, and a goal difference of 60:54, five points behind Sevilla in the seventh spot that leads to the UEFA Europa League next season, so the victory in the Basque derby is a must if they want to keep the pace with Sevilla. The Royal has earned ten points in the last five La Liga rounds, scoring nine goals in the process, and conceding two in a return, while three out of these five tilts had less than three goals in the total, and on all five occasions one of the rivals failed to find the back of the net.

At home, Real Sociedad has won four out of the last five matches, along with a 2-1 defeat against Getafe, keeping the clean sheet three times in the process. In 17 La Liga games at Anoeta this season, the Royal has recorded eight wins, three draws, and six losses with a 41:26 goal difference, whilst 15 out of these 17 encounters had at least three goals in the total. For the clash against the Lions, the manager Imanol Alguacil will probably miss the captain Xabi Prieto due to a muscle injury, while all other players are ready to go.

On the other side, ATHLETIC BILBAO is in the 14th place of the La Liga table at the moment with 40 points, a 9-13-12 record, and a 37:42 goal difference, twelve points above the relegation zone, and eight points behind Sevilla in the seventh spot which means the Lions have already finished their season, but the Basque derby is always a big game, so they will certainly try their best. In the last five La Liga matches, the Lions have recorded one win, two stalemates, and two defeats with a goal difference of 8:9, while three out of these five games had at least three goals on the scoreboard.

On the road, Athletic Bilbao has won only one out of their previous five matches, along with one draw, and three losses, scoring four goals in the process, and conceding eight in a return, while four out of these five matches had less than three goals in the total. In 17 La Liga away games, the Lions have a 4-5-8 record with a goal difference of 20:27, failing to score in three out of their last five encounters. For the Basque derby, the manager Cuco Ziganda will probably miss the striker Aritz Aduriz (19 goals in 45 apps this season) due to a muscle injury, but all other players are ready for the clash.

Betting Odds on the Total at BetDSI Sportsbook 

Over 2.5 Goals @ -112

Under 2.5 Goals @ -106

Why Bet on the Under?

Athletic Bilbao’s cautious approach led 23 out of their 34 La Liga matches in the under, and in just one out of their previous five games on the road, we saw three or more goals on the scoreboard. On the other side, since the new manager, Imanol Alguacil took the helm, three out of Real Sociedad’s five encounters were ended in the under, while in none of them both teams managed to score. Likewise, four out of the previous five H2H meetings had less than three goals in the total, including the first duel of the season at San Mames (0-0).

Why Bet on the Over?

Well, some numbers are suggesting that we could see a bunch of goals on this one, as 24 out of 34 Real Sociedad’s La Liga matches had at least three goals in the total, and 13 of them had at least four goals on the scoreboard. The Royal’s attack is the fourth most efficient in the league with 60 goals on the account, while their defense is the third-worst in the La Liga, allowing 54 goals so far. Likewise, three out of the Lions’ last five matches were ended in the over, and the remaining two were finished in a 1-1 draw.

Real Sociedad vs. Athletic Bilbao Over/Under Betting Pick

Considering the visitors’ approach, this clash could be easily ended in the under, and the previous five Basque derbies at Anoeta had two goals in the total or less. However, the hosts are set as -110 favorites by the bookies to grab a win here, while the Lions can play in a relaxed manner with no pressure on their shoulders, so we should see a couple of goals on this one.

Hereof, I will go with the over, as I think both teams will find the back of the net, but you can check out the remaining lines and markets on BetDSI Sportsbook.

MY PICK: Over 2.5 Goals (-112)

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