Betting on the Over/Under – Lyon vs. Amiens 8/12/2018


Lyon ended the last season in the third place behind PSG and Monaco as they beat Marseille in a battle for the Champions League spot, and are hoping to finish in top three this time around as well. The Kids made almost $60 mil profit on sales this summer, but they managed to keep the most important players in the squad, such as the captain Nabil Fekir who was on verge of joining Liverpool in one of the biggest transfer sagas in the past few months.

The teenager Willem Geubbels joined Monaco, the center-back Mouctar Diakhaby left for Valencia, the midfielder Sergi Darder went to Espanyol, while Jean-Philippe Mateta, Nicolas N’Koulou, Aldo Kalulu, and Romain Del Castillo also left the club. Lyon opted not to spend a lot of cash on new players so they brought the young midfielder Tanguy Ndombélé from Amiens and the right-back Léo Dubois who came from Nantes.

On the other hand, Amiens finished the last campaign in the respectable 13th position despite being labeled as one of the candidates for relegation, and they are hoping to retain the elite status this time around. However, Amiens is a much smaller club than Lyon and they don’t have such financial power, so they spent just over $2 mil on new arrivals this summer. The forward Juan Ferney Otero came from Estudiantes; the Polish winger Rafal Kurzawa joined from Gornik, while Eddy Gnahore and Emil Krafth came on loan from Palermo and Bologna, respectively. Still, the club made a profit with the sale of Tanguy Ndombélé who went to Lyon for $9 mil, and although they will be weaker following the talented midfielder’s departure, Amiens mad a good deal.

Betting Odds on the Total at BetDSI Sportsbook

Over 3.5 goals @ +125

Under 3.5 goals @ -161

Why bet on the Under?

Amiens was one of the least efficient teams last year as they didn’t score plenty of goals; in fact, they averaged under one goal per match, but their defense was solid, conceding 42 in 38 games. The biggest problem for them was scoring away from home as they bagged just 11 in 19 games on the road, and if you believe they will translate that form into this season, backing under is not such bad option.

Why bet on the Over?

Only PSG scored more goals than Lyon in 2017/18 and although they were particularly efficient on the road, Lyon averaged two goals per game in front of their own fans. Bruno Genesio’s side is playing an eye-catching, attacking football that can produce a bunch of goals, but also, the opponents tend to hurt them on counters, so I wouldn’t exclude Amiens from scoring at the ParcOlympique Lyonnais on Sunday.

Lyon vs Amiens Betting Pick

Three out of the last five Lyon’s league games ended with four or more goals as they scored at least three in four of them and I expect the hosts to continue in that fashion here and they do have the players capable of unlocking any defense. Depay, Fekir, and Diaz terrorized the opposing defense last year, and Lyon scored five in two H2H matches with Amiens as both tilts finished over 2.5 goals. They will be eager to display an excellent performance in the opener at home, so I am anticipating three or four goals in Amiens’ net.

MY PICK: Over 3.5 goals (+125)