Betting on the Over/Under – Lazio vs. Sampdoria 4/22/2018


Lazio is fighting bravely for the UEFA Champions League place next season, and on this Sunday, April 22nd, 2018, the Eagles welcome Sampdoria at Stadio Olimpico in Rome as huge -300 favorites to win the game. On the other side, Sampdoria is chasing the UEFA Europa League spot, so they cannot afford a loss here which promises a great game, while the bookies expect to see a lot of goals as the markets on the Over/Under 2.5 Goals are set at -235/+180.

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LAZIO is without a defeat for six Serie A games in a row, recording three wins and three draws in the process with a 15:9 goal difference which is exactly four goals per contest on average. In the previous round, the Eagles have beaten Fiorentina 4-3 on the road in one of the most thrilling games of the season so far, and now they are sitting at the fourth place of the Serie A table with 64 points, a 19-7-7 record, and a 79:43 goal difference, one point ahead of Inter in the fifth, and the same number of points as the city rival AS Roma in the third spot.

At the moment, Lazio is the most efficient team in the league, bagging one goal more than the leader Juventus. On the home soil, the Eagles have an 8-4-4 record with a 38:17 goal difference, while their previous home match against AS Roma was ended in a nil-nil draw. For the clash against Sampdoria, the manager Simone Inzaghi will miss the forward Luis Alberto (12 goals in 45 apps this season) due to a yellow card suspension, and the midfielder Alessandro Murgia (two goals in 23 apps) because of the red card in the previous round, while all other important first-team players are ready to go.

SAMPDORIA is playing in a shaky form in the last couple of weeks, recording two wins, one stalemate, and two losses in their last five Serie A games, including a 1-0 victory over Bologna on last Wednesday when Duvan Zapata scored the winning goal in the dying moments of the second half. La Samp is currently sitting at the eighth spot of the Serie A table with 51 points, a 15-6-12 record, and a 51:49 goal difference, three points behind AC Milan in the sixth spot that leads to the UEFA Europa League next season.

Sampdoria desperately needs a positive result against the Eagles, and in 16 away games thus far, they have a 4-3-9 record with a goal difference of 19:32, while in the previous five tilts on the road, La Samp has earned only one victory along with four losses. The manager Marco Giampaolo doesn’t have any injury problems among the squad, besides the left-back Nicola Murru who’s still recovering from a medial collateral ligament injury.

Betting Odds on the Total at BetDSI Sportsbook 

Over 3.5 Goals @ +105

Under 3.5 Goals @ -125

Why Bet on the Under?

This is a huge game for both Lazio and Sampdoria, as they cannot afford to lose it if they want to achieve their targets, so we could easily see a cautious approach, particularly by the visitors who had plenty of defensive problems on the road thus far. The hosts will be without the forward Luis Alberto, and it’s a huge blow for Simone Inzaghi’s team which could disrupt their attacking flow.

Why Bet on the Over?

On the other hand, 26 out of 33 Lazio’s Serie A games had at least three goals in the total, while 14 of them had at least four goals on the scoreboard, and 13 out of 33 Sampdoria’s matches had at least four goals in the total. Likewise, 12 out of 16 Sampdoria’s away games had at least three goals in the total, while ten out of 16 Lazio’s home matches had more than two goals on the scoreboard. So, if you look at the numbers, they are suggesting at least three goals in this one, and three out of the last four H2H meetings had exactly three goals on the scoreboard.

Lazio vs. Sampdoria Over/Under Betting Pick

The previous H2H duel at Stadio Olimpico was ended in a 7-3 victory by the hosts, but I doubt we’ll see a similar game this Sunday, as the stake is massive for both sides. Therefore, I will go with the under on this one, but you can look after all other lines and markets at BetDSI Sportsbook.

MY PICK: Under 3.5 Goals (-125)