Betting on the Over/Under – Hertha BSC vs. RB Leipzig 5/12/2018

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The 2017/2018 German Bundesliga season finishes this Saturday, May 12th, 2018, with the Round 34 games, and one of the most intriguing matches is certainly the one between Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig at Olympiastadion in Berlin. The visitors are still in the competition for the UEFA Champions League place for the next season, but they desperately need a victory over Hertha on the road, so the fans can expect a tremendous game. The bookies favor RB Leipzig to win this clash at -120, while the markets on the Over/Under 3 Goals are set at -112/-104, so let’s see how to beat the totals on this one.

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HERTHA BSC is in the tenth spot of the German Bundesliga table at the moment with 43 points, a 10-13-10 record, and a goal difference of 41:40 which is 2.45 goals per contest on average, while 19 out of their 33 games had two goals in the total or fewer. In the previous five encounters, the Old Lady has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses with a goal difference of 9:8, and interestingly, all these five tilts had more than two goals on the scoreboard.

At Olympiastadion, Hertha BSC has a 5-7-4 record this season, bagging 21 goals in the process, and conceding also 21 times in a return, while a half of their 16 matches on the home soil had more than two goals in the total. In the last five home games, the Old Lady has earned one win, three stalemates and one defeat. For the last fixture of the season, the manager Pal Dardai can count on all players, besides the centre-back Niklas Stark who’s still doubtful due to a thigh injury.

RB LEIPZIG is currently in the sixth spot of the Bundesliga table with 50 points, a 14-8-11 record, and a goal difference of 51:51 which is 3.09 goals per game on average, two points behind the fourth-placed Hoffenheim and the fifth-placed Bayer Leverkusen, so the Red Bulls are still in the race for the UEFA Champions League spot. They need to win their last game against Hertha, and if both Hoffenheim and Leverkusen fail to get three points, the Red Bulls will be in the Champions League once more.

In the last five Bundesliga rounds, the Red Bulls have recorded only one victory along with three losses and one draw, and in the previous five encounters on the road, they’ve earned one win, two draws, and two defeats with a goal difference of 5:8, while three out of these five away tilts had more than two goals on the scoreboard. For the next game at Olympiastadion in Berlin, the manager Ralph Hasenhuttl will have some problems to field his best eleven, as the left-back Marcel Halstenberg and the forward Marcel Sabitzer are both injured, while the winger Emil Forsberg will have to serve his red card suspension.

Betting Odds on the Total at BetDSI Sportsbook 

Over 3 Goals @ -112

Under 3 Goals @ -104

Why Bet on the Under?

Hertha BSC is playing pretty tightly throughout the season, and the majority of their matches had less than three goals in the total. Their manager Pal Dardai prefers a patient approach with a tough defense, while Hertha’s matches are rarely full of scoring chances. The hosts will play only for prestige in this one, so you can expect some changes in the starting eleven.

Why Bet on the Over?

On the other hand, 20 out of 33 RB Leipzig’s Bundesliga matches had more than two goals in the total, while four out of their previous five encounters had at least three goals on the scoreboard. A half of their 16 away matches were ended in the over, and the Red Bulls are well-known for their aggressive and attacking style of play that often causes plenty of scoring chances during the game.

Hertha BSC vs. RB Leipzig Over/Under Betting Pick

The visitors desperately need a victory here, and they should get it against the relaxed home team, so we could easily see a quick opening goal. The Red Bulls will be satisfied even with a 1-0 win, but if they take the lead, the hosts will surely start to push forward in numbers which could open a lot of room for deadly counter-attacks. If Hertha BSC breaks the deadlock first, this clash should be definitely finished in the over.

I believe the hosts are capable of scoring here, as it’s the final game of the season, and they play in front of the home fans, so I’m backing the over on this one.

MY PICK: Over 3 Goals (-112)

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