Betting on the Over/Under – Girona vs. Real Madrid 8/26/2018

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Girona plays their second home game in a row still looking for their first win. The European champions Real Madrid will try to stop them in that intent despite ending up wounded after handing the La Liga title over to their eternal rivals Barcelona.

Even though the White and Reds clinched safety quickly last season, they will want to get that first win to avoid the tension that was created in 2017/18, by their run of just one win in the first eight rounds. Encouragingly for the hosts, Real Madrid failed to beat Girona at Montilivi the last term.

Girona opened the new campaign with a 0-0 draw with the newly-promoted Valladolid despite having the ball possession for even 68 percent. Still, Eusebio Sacristan’s men managed to record just one attempt on target and they are eager to open the account in the tilt against the favored visitors.

On the other hand, the Meringues are still adapting to their new manager’s style of play, which is mainly based on ball retention and pressure. Real Madrid finished their opening game with 78 percent of ball possession, beating Getafe 2-0. The last time they had more control in a single match was in February 2012 (80%). Dani Carvajal scored the opening goal for Madrid in LaLiga in the 20th minute, while Gareth Bale doubled the lead in the 51st, which proved to be a final score.

The European champions weren’t able to start with a winning streak last campaign, with two draws in the first three games of 2017/18. Winning here could be potentially important for Real, with four of the club’s last five titles (since 2002/03) coming after two wins at the start of a season.

Betting Odds on the Total at BetDSI Sportsbook

Over 3 goals @ -122

Under 3 goals @ +102

Why bet on the Under?

Girona hasn’t scored over 1.5 goals in a league home match in the last six matches, that is, since March 2018. Only two out of the previous ten Girona’s games in LaLiga produced more than three goals, while the other two produced exactly three goals. Real Madrid is not playing offensively as they did under Zinedine Zidane and they are holding the ball instead, waiting for the opposition to make a defensive error and exploit it.

Why bet on the Over?

Real Madrid scored at least two goals in each of their last six away games in La Liga and at least two in 14 out of the previous 16 matches on the road in all competitions. The Meringues are also conceding a high amount of goals on the road in the league, allowing eight in the last four matches and Girona already scored two past them last time they met at the Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.

Girona vs Real Madrid Betting Pick

Real Madrid lost at least once against all three Catalan teams last season in La Liga as they succumbed to Girona, Barcelona, and Espanyol. These rivals played just two H2H encounters in the recent history and each team recorded a victory; Real was better in a nine-goal thriller in Madrid, 6-3, while Girona surprised Zidane’s side with a 2-1 win at the Estadio Municipal de Montilivi. I believe they will combine for three goals but I am not sure about the fourth one. However, if exactly three goals occur here, at least you’ll get your stake back. After I lost Over 3.5 goals bet on Real against Getafe last week, I think they will do their thing on this one.

MY PICK: Over 3 goals (-122)

ADDITIONAL PICK: I didn’t win my Over 3.5 goals bet last week, but I won my bet on Gareth Bale to score anytime, and I believe the Madrid’s new No.1 man will find the way into the back of the net on this one as well. You can back him at -150, but if you are the braver bettor, you can try Bale to score two or more at +300.

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