Betting on the Over/Under – Fiorentina vs. Napoli 4/29/2018


Only one point is separating Napoli and Juventus at the top of the Italian Serie A table with just four rounds more to go, so the clash between Fiorentina and Napoli set for this Sunday, April 29th, 2018, at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence is huge for both teams, as the hosts are still in the game for the UEFA Europa League. The bookies set Napoli as big -200 favorites to win this game, while the market on both teams to score is at -115, so let’s see what can we expect this Sunday at Artemio Franchi.

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FIORENTINA is in the ninth spot of the Italian Serie A table at the moment with 51 points, a 14-9-11 record, and a 47:38 goal difference which is 2.5 goals per contest on average, four points behind Atalanta in the sixth spot that leads to the UEFA Europa League next season, so the positive result against Napoli is a must. Viola was beaten two times in a row, losing to Sassuolo 1-0 on the road, and Lazio 4-3 in front of the home fans, but Fiorentina have won six out of their last ten Serie A matches, keeping the clean sheet six times in the process.

At home, Fiorentina has earned ten points out of their last five games, keeping their net intact four times in the process, while just the game against Lazio had more than two goals in the total. In 17 home matches thus far, Viola has a 7-5-5 record with a 24:21 goal difference, failing to find the back of the net in three out of these 17 encounters. For the game against Napoli, the manager Stefano Pioli cannot count on the midfielder Bryan Dabo who’ll serve his red card suspension, while the captain Milan Badelj is still doubtful due to an injury.

NAPOLI has beaten Juventus 1-0 on the road in the previous round of the Serie A, cutting the deficit to only one point, so now it’s a huge pressure on the Little Donkeys’ shoulders to win all four remaining games until the end of the season. They are unbeaten for seven matches in a row, recording four victories and three draws in the process with a goal difference of 9:4, while five out of these seven tilts had two goals in the total or fewer.

The Little Donkeys are the most successful team on the road in the Serie A, recording 13 wins and four draws with a goal difference of 32:8, while ten out of these 17 encounters had less than three goals on the scoreboard. However, they’ve won just two out of their previous five away games along with three draws, but conceding only in a 1-1 stalemate with Sassuolo. The manager Maurizio Sarri is still without the left-back Faouzi Ghoulam who’s listed as a doubtful after recovering from a knee injury, while all other players are ready to go against Viola.

Betting Odds on the Total at BetDSI Sportsbook 

Over 2.5 Goals @ -130

Under 2.5 Goals @ +110

Why Bet on the Under?

Napoli was outstanding on the road this season, and the key factor was a brilliant defensive job, allowing just eight goals in 17 games while keeping the clean sheet in eight out of their previous ten matches away from home. On the other side, Fiorentina had some quite tight games at home in the last couple of months, excluding that 4-3 defeat against Lazio, while the first H2H duel of the season at San Paolo was finished in a nil-nil draw.

Why Bet on the Over?

The visitors’ offense is the third-best in the league bagging 71 goals in 34 games so far, and this fact could be the main reason why you should consider betting on the over here, as Napoli desperately need a victory, so they have to score if they want to win. However, sometimes a single goal can be enough for three points, but if the hosts find the back of the net, then this clash should be ended in the over.

Fiorentina vs. Napoli Over/Under Betting Pick

This is a big game for Fiorentina and a massive one for Napoli. Therefore, it is difficult to beat the lines, as you can’t predict how the things will happen, as a quick opener or some lucky strike could change the flow of the game. The visitors should control the ball, as they are certainly the better team than Fiorentina, but the hosts will wait for their chances on the counter or after set pieces.

I believe the hosts are capable of scoring against Napoli’s defense, so I’ll go with the over, but you can check all other lines and markets on BetDSI Sportsbook.

MY PICK: Over 2.5 Goals (-130)