Army West Point vs. Air Force College Football Betting Pick 11/2/19


In a battle of two schools that prefer to mix in a lot of running plays, Coach Troy Calhoun and the Air Force Falcons (-15) are prepared to take the field against the Army West Point Black Knights at Falcon Stadium. This Saturday afternoon matchup is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CBS Sports Network.

Army West Point at Air Force Betting Odds 11/2/2019

Air Force is favored by 15 points in this game. The Black Knights are currently getting +510 moneyline odds while the Falcons are -750. This matchup should present some in-game betting opportunities. The over/under has been set at 45 points.

The game’s O/U has yet to change after being set initially at 45. Having said that, the line opened at -16 and square bettors have been hammering the Black Knights.

The Black Knights are 3-5 straight up (SU) while the Falcons are 6-2 SU. The less-than-stellar Black Knights have lost 7.8 units so far and are 2-6 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 3-4-1.

The Falcons are up 2.8 units this season. They’re 5-3 ATS and five of their games have gone over the total.

When these two schools met last year, Army West Point knocked off Army West Point by a field goal 17-14.

Army West Point enters this one on a three-game unbeaten streak while Air Force has come up short in each of its last four. The Black Knights fell to San Jose State 34-29 in a contest where the passing attack could’ve been more effective as Christian Anderson completed only three-of-8 passes for 22 yards. Anderson (87 yards on 16 rush attempts, two TDs) also mounted the ground attack and was complemented by Sandon McCoy (39 yards on 13 carries, one TD). Camden Harrison (four receptions, 54 yards, one TD) and Artice Hobbs IV (one catch, 19 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Air Force is coming off of a 31-7 win over Utah State. Donald Hammond III completed one-of-five passes for 16 yards. Kadin Remsberg (92 yards on 16 rush attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Hammond III (69 yards on nine carries) led the running game as Benjamin Waters (two receptions, 24 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Each of these teams has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Army West Point has run the ball on 84.6 percent of its offensive possessions while Air Force has an overall rush percentage of 86.0. The Black Knights have produced 264 rush yards per game and have 23 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Falcons are putting up 323 rush yards per contest and have 31 total rushing TDs.

If 2019 results are any indication, then it seems like the Falcons should have an edge when it comes to RB efficiency. Their backfield has produced 5.4 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.3 YPC to opponents. The Black Knights have recorded 4.7 yards per carry while allowing 4.2 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Black Knights have tallied 75 yards/game through the air overall and have five passing scores so far. The Falcons have put up 120 pass yards per game and have six total pass TDs.

Army West Point has let opponents rush for an average of 150 yards and pass for 203 yards per game. Air Force has allowed 92.8 yards per game on the ground and 216.9 to opponents in the air. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Black Knights have given up an ANY/A of 6.70 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons are allowing an ANY/A of 6.79.

Kelvin Hopkins Jr. is up to 387 pass yards on the year. He’s completed 21-of-51 attempts with four passing touchdowns and two interceptions. Hopkins Jr. has a 6.24 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.80 over the last two games.

The Black Knights have tried to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Camden Harrison (191 yards, two TDs), Connor Slomka (363 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Sandon McCoy (253 rush yards, three rush TDs) have delivered in the offense for Army West Point.

Mike Schmidt has produced 147 yards, one TD and zero INTs for Air Force. His ANY/A stands at 27.83 for the season.

The Falcons also prefer to leverage their backfield. In addition to Kadin Remsberg (29 receiving yards), Mike Schmidt (127 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Geraud Sanders (-30 rush yards, 363 receiving yards, three TDs) have seen a multitude of action lately.

Army West Point Black Knights at Air Force Falcons Free Pick

SU Winner – Air Force, ATS Winner – Air Force, O/U – Over


Betting Trends

The Air Force defense has sacked opposing QBs 14 times this year. Army West Point has registered 13 sacks.

Both offenses have lost nine fumbles this year.

The Black Knights offense has created one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Falcons have put up seven such plays.

The Army West Point defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Air Force has given up two such plays.

The Army West Point offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Air Force has created 13 such runs.

The Black Knights defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Falcons have given up three such runs.

The O/U for Air Force’s last matchup was set at 60. The under cashed in the 31-7 win over Utah State.

In its last three contests, Air Force is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

In its last three matches, Army West Point is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Army West Point’s previous game was set at 54.5. The over cashed in the team’s 34-29 loss to San Jose State.

Army West Point has produced 4.4 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.6 over its last two.

Air Force has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 6.2 over its last two.

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